Erdogan's visit to Libya: Turkish President's good deals

Christian Makarian is a columnist, essayist and specialist in international relations.

He has notably published

Genealogy of the Catastrophe

(editions du Cerf).

In many ways, Libya presents the Turkish president with an unparalleled array of benefits in the Mediterranean.

First, the strategic plan.

Taking a long-term position in Libya offers Recep Tayyip Erdogan the possibility - through the effect of an inexpensive alliance between a strong country and a weak country - to considerably extend Turkey's maritime domain, which is precisely limited. in the Aegean Sea by the limit of territorial waters fixed at 6 miles with Greece since 1936.

In 2019, the agreement signed between Ankara and Tripoli bilaterally delimited the maritime borders between Libya and Turkey in a very promising area in terms of gas resources;

Turkey is a country which is almost 100% dependent on its energy supplies.

The Turkish-Libyan economic interests go far beyond the gas issue;

they carry the vast market for the reconstruction of a country which has abundant oil resources.

As a result, Turkish ships are drilling in areas arbitrarily fixed with Libya, but which undoubtedly encroach on Greek or Cypriot maritime space because the Turkish-Libyan agreement is not recognized by any other nation.

A showdown deliberately chosen by Erdogan, who alternately blows hot and cold with Greece.

Second, the economic issue.

The Turkish-Libyan economic interests go far beyond the gas issue;

they carry the vast market for the reconstruction of a country which has abundant oil resources.

Turkish businesses are on the front lines and it is no wonder that 14 ministers and an impressive delegation of entrepreneurs and business leaders accompanied the Turkish president on his visit to Tripoli on April 12.

It is also a way for Erdogan to compensate by conquering foreign markets for the deep economic slump that is shaking his country.

Since the start of his “

reign

”, the link between the Turkish leader and the business community has been fundamental to consolidating and increasing his power.

To read also:

"There will be no real appeasement with Turkey as long as it remains dominated by the current power"

"

In Libya, we must now focus on reconstruction, on development and on the well-being of our Libyan brothers,"

says Recep Tayyip Erdogan

.

Turkey, with its strong institutional structure and strong private sector, will support all aspects of the reconstruction of Libyan infrastructure and superstructures.

We agreed on the actions to be implemented to accelerate the return of the Turkish private sector to Libya

. ”

In this ambitious perspective, giving back to the authorities in Tripoli the possibility of regaining sovereignty over the whole country is essential since the major part of the oil wells are in the east, in Cyrenaica.

However, this region, whose capital is Benghazi, remains in the hands of Marshal Haftar, supported by the Russians.

The latter was, until February 2021 and the interlibyan agreement concluded in Geneva under the aegis of the United Nations, the sworn enemy of the men in place in Tripoli.

After helping the Tripoli government to inflict defeat on Haftar (the fierce fighting lasted from April 2019 to June 2020), Erdogan, who did not hesitate to deliver arms en masse to pro-Tripoli militias and to employ jihadist mercenaries recruited in Syria (and elsewhere) to achieve its ends, now intends to continue its march differently and spare Haftar.

It is a question of extending the Anatolian plateau, already of considerable size, by its maritime extensions - which precisely requires to extend the Exclusive Economic Zone of Turkey.

After the Geneva agreement, Haftar indeed agreed to support the new leader of Tripoli, Abdel Hamid Dbeibah, a 61-year-old businessman who is more clearly conciliatory than his predecessor (Faïez Sarraj was at loggerheads with Haftar ).

It turns out that Dbeibah, whose reputation as a businessman seems to be widespread, is also the main local representative of large Turkish public companies, very interested in the pacification of the Libyan market.

Logically, Erdogan is now considering opening a Turkish consulate in Benghazi.

All means are being mobilized so that the Turkish establishment in Libya is irreversible: the Turkish president has thus promised to provide 150,000 doses of anti-coronavirus vaccine to Libya.

However, it remains for the Turks to consolidate their achievements.

On the one hand, they need to obtain a better distribution of oil revenues, today mainly concentrated in the hands of Haftar.

Thorny subject.

On the other hand, it is a question of healing the wounds of the military campaign which drove the forces from Haftar in 2020. For this, the Turks will have to come to an agreement with the Russians, who are still actively supporting and arming Haftar.

Everything has to be done.

For the time being, if certain groups of mercenaries have left, the number of Turkish advisers present on the spot has continued to increase.

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Third, the ideological cause.

Libya brings a new trophy to the nationalist slogan of the famous "

blue homeland

" (mavi vatan), a concept forged by an admiral yet passed in the crosshairs of Erdogan.

It is a question of extending the Anatolian plateau, already of considerable size, by its maritime extensions - which precisely requires to extend the Exclusive Economic Zone of Turkey.

Beyond that, Erdogan never ceases to extol about Libya "

these lands where our ancestors made history

".

The development of the Ottoman past is the subject of a constant propaganda effort in Turkey, with great blows of historical reenactments or downright kitsch television series.

The story, in its completely arranged version, is the favorite instrument of a Turkish president who has little or no higher education.

But it works.

Since the 16th century and the Ottoman occupation, Libya has occupied a somewhat special place in all of the territories dominated by the Ottoman Empire.

However, since the 16th century and the Ottoman occupation, Libya has occupied a somewhat special place in all the territories dominated by the Ottoman Empire.

On the one hand, there existed in Libya a Turkish population, which made partial origin, as well as a kind of Turkish dynasty, the Karamanli, which ruled over a century over the country by providing pashas of the same clan. .

The Ottomans also forcibly recruited fighters in the Balkans, as usual, and moved them to Tripolitania.

This population has left descendants until today.

Finally, and mainly, it was in Libya that the young and brilliant officer Mustafa Kemal stood out for his first feats of arms against the Italian colonizing troops, in 1911-1912.

After the capture of Tripoli by the Italians, Kemal indeed volunteered, led the counter-offensive and won a victory in Tobruk.

Although the victory was short-lived, as the Ottoman Empire signed soon after Libya's cession to Italy, it helped propel the military career of what would later become Atatürk.

Erdogan therefore does not lose an opportunity to celebrate the rapprochement with Libya,

"with which,

he declared in 2020

, we have a brotherhood dating back 500 years"

.

A declamatory fraternity which dresses above all well-weighed interests, which once again underline how Europeans have lost control.