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Herd immunity in July or even earlier? Vaccination calculator gives hope - but experts doubt the model


Herd immunity in Germany could be achieved earlier than expected. But experts now provide reasons against the assumption. What's behind it?

Herd immunity in Germany could be achieved earlier than expected.

But experts now provide reasons against the assumption.

What's behind it?

Berlin - Herd immunity: That is the point that all countries in the corona pandemic want to reach.

Because when herd immunity prevails, a large part of the population, currently 80 percent is assumed, is immune and the spread of a pathogen is restricted.

In Germany, herd immunity could occur earlier than expected.

Herd immunity in Germany in July or earlier?

- The vaccination calculator gives hope

The vaccination calculator uses current vaccination rates to calculate how long it will take to become immunized in the herd.

Currently (as of April 14th) the barometer reads: 87 days.

So herd immunity on or around July 10th, 2021?

Something like that.

Of course, the vaccination calculator cannot provide exact predictions.

He calculates with the current average of the last seven days.

In Germany that was 412,213 vaccinations on average.

But the Germans can hope.

It is not unlikely that the point so many are looking forward to will be reached sooner.

As politicians are currently emphasizing, the vaccination rates are rising steadily.

For example, while at the beginning of the vaccination campaign in the doctor's offices on April 6th, 166,954 first vaccinations were administered on one day, the RKI reported 464,701 on April 14th.

And in the second quarter, which began in April, the number of people vaccinated will probably also increase due to higher delivery volumes at Biontech / Pfizer.

Britain claims to have already achieved herd immunity but has been criticized for this assumption.

Herd immunity in Germany: experts doubt the model - will the time never come?

Does herd immunity exist?

Experts are slowly saying goodbye to the idea of ​​immunizing the population.

The uneven distribution of vaccines, the uncertainty of post-vaccination spread and the mutants could reduce protection.

Scientists like Youyang Gu, known for his Covid-19 forecast model, are currently shifting the model towards the "path to normality" instead of "path to herd immunity".

Because even in spite of vaccinations, the AHAL regulations must be complied with.

"If we were to drop all AHAL rules after vaccinating all those willing to vaccinate, many would die," Lauterbach recently wrote.

As of April 14, in Germany, according to the RKI, 14,058,329 (16.9 percent of the population) were first vaccinated and 5,186,135 (6.2 percent of the population) were second vaccinated.


List of rubric lists: © Fotostand / K. Schmitt via

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2021-04-15

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