[Hong Kong's new positioning. 1] When China can look up to the world, how Hong Kong will face up to the new global order｜01 Weekly

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Written by: Hao Ziyu

2021-04-18 21:00

Last update date: 2021-04-18 21:29

"Post-70s, 80s, 90s, 00s, before they go out to see the world, China can already look at the world, and it's not as earthy as we were back then." President Xi Jinping during the National "Two Sessions" last month When attending the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, he talked about the changes of the new generation of Chinese in the "great changes unseen in a century" and the historical intersection of "two centenary years."

Soon after, Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, fought fiercely with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the China-US high-level strategic dialogue held in Alaska, the United States. It even criticized the US authorities for relying on military and economic advantages, wantonly trampling on the norms of international relations, and interfering in China's internal affairs, making irresponsible remarks on China's internal affairs.

"The Chinese don't eat this." Yang Jiechi's tough stance has not only caused repercussions in China, but also aroused international attention.

Many analysts believe that China intends to use this meeting to establish a new normal of equal diplomacy between the two countries, instead of continuing to follow the world rules with the United States as the core of a single power, and the United States has obviously not yet fully accepted it.

When China began to "view the world" and "American governance" was about to be broken, Hong Kong, which broke into the overall game between China and the United States based on the recklessness of the "anti-revision turmoil," how should it adjust its internal and external relations under the "one country, two systems" Perspective?

Huang Yushun, a young scholar who is studying for a doctorate in political science at Oxford University, Zhang Bingliang, a public administration scholar who has always been concerned about Hong Kong affairs and state affairs, and Christine Lu, who is teaching in the United States, had a dialogue with "Hong Kong 01".

"Hong Kong in the New Global Order" Series No. 4

-Hong Kong sees the world-

"Face" the new global order

In the past hundred years, the world structure has been dominated by Europe and the United States.

However, the rise of the Asian region headed by China has brought new possibilities to the old order and at the same time poses a challenge to the United States and its leading "Western world."

After World War II, the US-led "neo-liberalism" that focused on international cooperation and peace became the "world order."

However, after the presidency of the US President Trump came to power, "new realism" has shown signs of revival-using power as the most important factor in international relations and opposing "globalization."

As the relationship between China and the United States deteriorates and the trade war continues, the original pattern of the world has been impacted.

As early as 2012, the American political scholar Graham.

Graham Allison used the "Thucydides trap" to describe the potential conflict between the United States and China. When the hegemony of a major power is threatened by an emerging power, a war between the two will be unavoidable.

The rise of the Asian region headed by China has brought new possibilities to the old order and at the same time poses a challenge to the United States and its leading "Western world."

The picture shows the fierce confrontation between high-level China and the United States during the Alaska talks last month.

(Profile Picture/Associated Press)

The necessary process for the formation of a new pattern

On March 25, U.S. President Biden stated at his first official press conference after taking office that the fierce competition between the United States and China is foreseeable, but if China wants to become the world’s largest power, "not on my watch!" I’m here, don’t think about it!)” In the previous week’s China-US Alaska “2+2 Talks”, US Secretary of State Blincoln also emphasized: “The United States plays a leading role in the world and is a sign of participation in world affairs. It is our alliance and The partnership is based entirely on a voluntary basis, and this is what President Biden is committed to reviving." Yang Jiechi sternly pointed out: "The United States itself does not represent international public opinion, nor does the Western world. We hope that the US will talk about it. When considering universal values ​​and international public opinion, consider whether you can rest assured of saying this, because the United States does not represent the world, it only represents the government of the United States." Behind the tongue, sword, lip and gun is the declaration of the two powers on the world.

Although the two parties seem to be "incompatible with fire and water" in the talks, they are far from, and will not reach, the "life and death" situation.

Zhang Bingliang, former Secretary for Transport and Housing from the Democratic Party and Professor of Public Administration at the Education University of Hong Kong, pointed out to "Hong Kong 01" that there will be no complete defeat of one party between China and the United States, because both countries have considerable Strength, so there will only be a situation of "the United States is not defeated, and China will not fall." Both the economy and the military will be in a state of mutual balance.

He also said that he used to call the relationship between the two "US-China relations", because the confrontation in the past few years was mostly provoked by the United States. The United States has always been worried about the rise of China, in terms of so-called institutions, values, and other aspects. There are many conflicts. Therefore, it is not only Trump’s anti-China "hawks". The U.S. ruling and opposition parties now basically have a consensus to adopt a tougher attitude towards China. In this environment, the two parties need to "raise the tone" in the Alaska talks, and Give people the impression of "mutual high-profile criticism".

The US preached its "undefeated" authority, while the Chinese counterattacked in a high-profile manner.

Zhang Bingliang said that this approach is not uncommon in diplomacy. When two parties with already poor relations appear at the conference table at the same time, they will definitely show a "tough" attitude to the people of their respective countries.

His analysis pointed out: "On the surface, the talks seem to be unpleasant, but I think this is something that will definitely happen. Because when the world situation changes, it will definitely go through this process."

Huang Yushun, a reformist youth, political and economics scholar, also believes that although the talks are "tough" everywhere, they are fully in line with the diplomatic practice of the 21st century. Based on explanations to voters and citizens, it is necessary to perform this way.

He further explained: "Biden needs to explain to his voters, and the voters he won are conservative white middle-class or working-class voters. They hold a fundamentally skeptical attitude towards China. If you want to satisfy them, you must perform. It's like a "tough hawk"."

Huang Yushun believes that Hong Kong can no longer see the world from the perspective of itself as the protagonist.

(Photo by Ou Jiale)

Hong Kong has never been an island

What does the new world pattern mean to Hong Kong?

Whether it is between China and the United States or internationally, Hong Kong cannot stand alone.

The relationship between Hong Kong and the United States was established during the British colonial period in 1843. In 1992, the United States passed the "U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act". Based on China's commitment to Hong Kong's autonomy and maintenance of freedom in the "Sino-British Joint Declaration", after the handover of Hong Kong sovereignty in 1997 , The United States treats Hong Kong differently from mainland China in its diplomatic and economic and trade policies.

Zhang Bingliang explained that, in fact, it is to deal with the relationship between the United States and Hong Kong after the return to the United States in the way of legislation, that is, to give Hong Kong special treatment different from the mainland.

After Hong Kong experienced the social movement in 2019, the United States stated in May last year that Hong Kong "no longer enjoys a high degree of autonomy" and therefore no longer enjoys the special treatment granted by the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act.

After the promulgation of the "Hong Kong National Security Law", Trump ordered the cancellation of Hong Kong's special trade status and sanctions relevant officials in the Mainland and Hong Kong who participated in the formulation of the "Hong Kong National Security Law".

Zhang Bingliang pointed out that the relationship between Hong Kong and the United States has changed greatly. The United States is taking the lead. The West has begun to promote sanctions against Hong Kong, especially from the "Five Eyes" (Five Eyes) intelligence alliance composed of the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. ) Against.

At the beginning of this year, Hong Kong, which ranked first in the "World's Freest Economy" for 25 consecutive years, ranked 2nd last year, and Macao, which ranked 35th last year, was "excluded" from an independent rating and ranking list by the Heritage Foundation, a think tank in the United States. Participate in the scoring with the 107th China.

Zhang Bingliang pointed out: "It can be seen that this is specifically aimed at Hong Kong, and it also means a change in the overall situation. While Hong Kong is being targeted by the international environment, the central government has also judged that Hong Kong has been "basically out of control" due to events in the past two years. He also believes that this was caused by the United States’ behind-the-scenes intervention—Hong Kong has become a battlefield where the United States is targeting China and endangering China’s national security. Therefore, Hong Kong has made very major policy adjustments.

Double loop.

1 | The international situation has changed drastically, China's strategic adjustment, Hong Kong's mountains and rain are about to come full of wind

Double loop.

Two｜The integration of land and port should find the right direction, otherwise it may cause side effects

Double loop.

Three | Multilateralism reshuffles Hong Kong how to turn dangers and obstacles into easy ways?

Double loop.

Four | Breaking structural contradictions with industrial planning, Hong Kong welcomes the nirvana of the phoenix

What does the new world pattern mean to Hong Kong?

Whether it is between China and the United States or internationally, Hong Kong cannot stand alone.

(Data Picture/Photo by Yu Junliang)

Hong Kong is under attack from both sides. In the future development of the new structure, under the stalemate between China and the United States, it will inevitably be pressured from both sides-sanctions and countermeasures, provocations and counterattacks have made it impossible for Hong Kong to escape.

The old order of the world has been challenged, and various countries and regions tend to fall behind.

How should Hong Kong view this changing world, whether it has the ability to separate itself from disputes?

Obviously, the political reality is that as a part of China, Hong Kong has no reason not to stand on the side of the country.

"This is a brand new global geopolitics, and it is a brand new pattern for Hong Kong." Zhang Bingliang pointed out that on the one hand, the United States, which is in a confrontational relationship with China, wants to push Hong Kong to the West and promote a more friendly relationship with the United States; On the one hand, Beijing will tighten Hong Kong, and gradually pull Hong Kong on a track that makes it feel at ease and back on the track of China's future development.

The push and pull of both sides are simultaneously playing a role in Hong Kong.

On March 6, when President Xi Jinping attended the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, he pointed out that “China can already see the world level up.” Zhang Bingliang analyzed: “Under what circumstances do you look down and look up? It is because the relationship between the two sides is not equal. Under inequality. If one party is a powerful authority, there will be no "head-up view". For example, in the colonial period, Hong Kong people knew that they were not the masters, so they could only look up to "foreigners". "Head-up view" is based on The equality of the two parties is more like a friend than a affiliation."

On March 6, President Xi Jinping pointed out when attending the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, "China can already look at the world." (Photo/Xinhua News Agency)

Not the protagonist wearing a halo

Zhang Bingliang pointed out that the metaphors from these perspectives are also applicable to the Mainland and Hong Kong. The advantages of the Mainland and Hong Kong are different. It should be a head-up relationship, but there are also some unnatural looking down and looking up. For example, when the economic development of the Mainland lags behind Hong Kong in the past, Many Hong Kong people have the mentality of "looking down" on mainlanders.

After the reunification, Hong Kong, as a special zone, often still needs the central government to make final adjustments. Therefore, some Hong Kong people may have the feeling of looking up at Beijing.

How should Hong Kong people view themselves, the Mainland, the United States, and even the world?

Huang Yushun said from the bottom of his heart: "Many times, Hong Kong sees the world with itself as the core. It is a kind of innate superiority. It is not difficult to understand that when it has been cultivated by emphasis, it is natural to think of itself as a protagonist wearing a halo. . And when Hong Kong gradually loses this aura, you can no longer look at the world from this perspective... Still wanting China to revolve around you (Hong Kong) and the United States to revolve around you, all in love? I just think it is absurd. , Unrealistic and self-deceiving. However, even though it is no longer the protagonist, it needs to be understood that Hong Kong can still play a supporting role."

The truth was revealed in a single word, and he also tore a layer of paper that had been in front of Hong Kong people and did not want to face it.

The above-mentioned superiority may have been possessed once, but now the mainland cities are gradually rising, and the uniqueness of Hong Kong is constantly being challenged.

At the same time, the liberal and democratic systems and values ​​of the Western world that Hong Kong people aspire to have repeatedly exposed their flaws.

Hong Kong, which used to be a source of both sides, is now "attacked inside and out." It is time to reflect on and re-clarify Hong Kong's own position, and begin to face China and the Western world squarely.

The above is excerpted from the 261th issue of "Hong Kong 01" Weekly (April 19, 2021) "When China can look at the world, how Hong Kong will face the new global order".

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