Russia is set to begin withdrawing tomorrow the tens of thousands of troops it has concentrated on the border with Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zalansky
Photo:
Rotiers, AFP
For an hour and 18 minutes, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the two houses of the Russian parliament yesterday (Wednesday).
He promised benefits to families, which included the supply of gas and even talked about fines for harming the environment.
Only one issue is completely absent from the annual speech, but has been in the mouths of everyone for many weeks now: the concentration of Russian military forces on its borders with Ukraine.
At first, the Kremlin claimed that this was a "training" and that the movement of forces within Russian territory was its internal matter.
But when at least 150,000 soldiers are already within range of an invasion order to the neighbor, the training argument has also disappeared from the message board.
What exactly does Russia want to achieve by its actions?
Paradoxically, the likelihood of an overall war is rather low. Russia's economy is not experiencing its best days; There is unrest over the abuse of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny; And the Ukrainian army has also upgraded significantly. Therefore, it is not at all inconceivable that brushing the swords is a show aimed at forcing the West to talk to Russia in the Biden era. This assessment was strengthened last night, when Russian Defense Minister Shoigu announced that the "surprise inspection" had ended, and from today the forces would begin to return from Ukraine's borders to their bases.
On the other hand, a few days ago, the intelligence service in Kiev published three scenarios for developments, the most likely of which should be cut and preserved. The Kremlin will continue to heat the line of confrontation between Ukraine and the separatists in the "republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk, until the separatists "ask" it for protection from the "Ukrainian nationalists." Moscow, which is not officially a party to the conflict, will not be able to refuse a call for help from Russian speakers - ethnic rhetoric has already been used in the past to trample on international law - and will send "peacekeeping forces" to conflict zones. In this way, Russia will be able to turn eastern Ukraine into Transnistria B - another unnamed political entity in Moldova, where time has stood still, along with the Russian army, which is taking a strategic position on the outskirts of the Balkans. Another phase in the creeping annexation of the disintegration of Ukraine will be completed without declaring war.
In Ukraine, however, unlike in 2014 are ready for confrontation. President Volodymyr Zalansky said in a special speech this week: "Despite their common past, Ukraine and Russia look to the future differently. We are we, you - it is you." This reinforces the prediction recently made by senior carmelinologist Prof. Lilia Shabtsova: The conflict in Ukraine will not be resolved, because it touches on the founding foundations of statehood, both in Russia and in Ukraine. Russia cannot give up on Ukraine because it sees it as part of the "Russian world" and its loss will be a blow to Russia's perception of it as a Eurasian power; Whereas Ukraine can remain a sovereign state only if it keeps its distance from Russia. Operatively, this means that even if no war develops now, its likelihood in the future will not disappear.