BRUSSELS - The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (Ecdc) estimates declining cases and deaths from Covid in Italy in the coming weeks.
According to the new ECDC tool online from today, the number of infections at national level should decrease from 103,366 recorded in the week from 11 to 17 April to 78,220 in the week from 9 to 15 May.
Over the same period, deaths are expected to drop from 2,753 to 1,835 per week.
There are no longer any dark red colored Italian regions in the updated map of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control
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According to the map that measures the incidence of infections per 100 thousand inhabitants, Molise (orange) is the region with the best situation.
In the rest of Europe the situation in France worsens and remains critical in Sweden, Poland and Hungary.
The new 'hub' with ECDC estimates - formulated on the basis of the intersection of different forecast models - collects indications for 32 European countries expressed in a range that represent the worst and best scenario, a gap that grows with increasing the time horizon of the forecast.
Thus, in the worst case scenario, for Italy in the next month the infections could return to increase to exceed 164 thousand or collapse to just over 41 thousand per week.
Deaths could drop to 980 per week at best, or rise again to 3,176 every seven days at worst.
For Germany, the reference forecast formulated by the ECDC instead indicates that infections and deaths are destined to increase in the next month.
While in France a slow decline in both parameters could have begun.
In Spain, the number of new cases should remain stable, with only a slight increase in deaths within a month.