The 'Autumn Plan' that the Government prepares to contain inflation and arrive with air at the elections

04/22/2021 21:38

• Clarín.com

• Opinion

Updated 04/22/2021 9:38 PM

The economic team is preparing a kind of "Autumn Plan" to try to

contain inflation

and go to the elections with a less dislocated economy.

The program includes

Martín Guzmán himself, Paula Español, Matías Kulfas

and the head of the Central Bank.

Santiago Cafiero

monitors him by order of

Alberto Fernández

.

The initiative was adopted after strong political criticism received by the economic team for the overheating of prices.

The quartet accelerated the assembly from

a devastating figure: 4.8% in March

.

The package includes more price controls and regulations.

According to the official point of view, it tries to curb inflationary inertia.

The initiative was defined a week ago.

There was a meeting of the economic-social cabinet,

the same day that the Indec set off the alarms.

Guzmán had to participate urgently from Madrid.

The Zoom overheated and lasted three hours.

In that meeting there were crosses between the ministers and

invoice passes

.

There were criticisms

of Paula Español's inefficiency in

controlling prices and the repeated reproach to Guzmán because they say that he

acts only as a "debt minister

.

"

There were also strong reproaches against

Luis Basterra

, for his passivity in the face of the rise in meat.

Cafiero had a strong relationship with the head of the Treasury.

It was after Guzmán's political considerations.

Matias Kulfas, Santiago Cafiero and Paula Españo.

All three are involved in the plan with the Government wants to ease the economy.

Photo: Emmanuel Fernández

Then they were unified and everyone took aim at the businessmen.

There was direct criticism of the community of economists.

They accuse businessmen - with their own names - of abusing their dominant positions.

To "the profession", to provoke false inflationary expectations.

This is how Guzmán put it: "The economists generated an unrealistic inflationary expectation, with their crazy projections."

And he concluded: "These projections make prices stand out."

There was also talk of the lack of collaboration of businessmen.

Cafiero said: "They did not follow our macroeconomic guidelines, as the unions did."

And he countered:

"Now we are going to impose those variables by force

.

"

The “Autumn Plan” would have four essential points and it

involves controls, but also monetary, fiscal and dollar decisions

.

The issue was discussed at COPAL and also at the UIA.

The businessmen - reluctantly - will accompany the Casa Rosada.

Those led by Miguel Acevedo were the ones who baptized the proposal as "Autumn Plan".

At the UIA they associate it due to its similarity in conception with the well-remembered “Plan Primavera”.

It was

a program promoted by Raul Alfonsín –in the last stretch of his mandate– with the same objective: to contain prices

and reach the presidential elections.

There was also frostbite.

That historical experience

ended badly

.

Everything exploded on February 6, 1989. The current - and always - decision to freeze the prices of the family basket has many challenges for officials.

Among other things: what to do the day after the price control ends.

For this control to work - even temporarily -

certain fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate tidiness is needed

.

The Spring Plan did not have it.

Guzmán - from Madrid - made a political commitment that the "macro" will accompany the freeze.

The intention is to converge towards

"acceptable" inflation on the eve of the October elections

.

The visible measure of the "Autumn Plan" - as

Clarín

announced

- will be the freezing for one semester of 100 products of high popular consumption.

Paula Español this week intimidated the leading firms: she asked them for absolute speed in setting up.

The civil servant is urgent: the inflation of March caused strong criticism to him in the cabinet.

His own "godfather" is restless:

the image of Axel Kicillof deteriorates with the rise in prices in the popular neighborhoods

.

Therefore, this control system would be accompanied by four central decisions.

First, an improvement in the fiscal accounts due to the "higher" collection that facilitates the price of soy in the clouds.

This Thursday it exceeded $ 555: this is how the highest collection since 2014 is ensured.

Cristina, Alberto and Máximo - again -

will benefit from the sector they hate the most: the countryside

. Cristina was lucky - in her two terms - of an extraordinary income estimated at 300,000 million dollars. Calculation of the prestigious Mario Brodersohn. A figure that was not invested to change the structure of the country and

was squandered in pure populism

. The vice president - in the end - did not leave a dollar in the BCRA. Mauricio Macri recalled this Monday at a meeting of his intimates. The former president says that Alberto has a great deterioration and heralds an immediate Cabinet crisis.

For this reason, the "Autumn Plan" -also- includes a central strategy: to

delay the dollar

.

The extra income from the field strengthens that dangerous decision.

Since January, the official ticket has a decreasing adjustment.

Now, the stability will deepen.

The precarious anti-inflation plan includes a more careful monetary policy and, practically, a

freeze on rates

.

The offensive against prices has a political component: a lot of concern among the chiefs of the Frente de Todos.

The equipment with compartments

The issue sparked some furious encounters. Before traveling to Europe, Martín Guzmán participated in a meeting with Santiago Cafiero and Sergio Massa. There was a strong crossing. Guzmán was tough and firm. Massa countered:

"You will have taught at Columbia, but we all know about Budget and inflation

.

"

The minister -in truth- had the political ability to “run away” from the inflation problem. He also has a perfect alibi: the current economic team has watertight compartments and divisions that make centralized decision-making impossible. Same mistake as Mauricio Macri made.

Guzmán took the monetary and exchange management from Miguel Pesce. The fight between the two has not yet healed. They all shoot him and blame the Secretary of Commerce. Spanish - and his second Laura Goldberg - complain bitterly because they are put in the eye of the storm. "We - they say - we have to be the bad guys in the movie." Matías Kulfas maintains a cordial dialogue with businessmen.

That unnerves the Instituto Patria

. On Wednesday, Kulfas was with Daniel Funes from Rioja. He will meet shortly with the powerful grain exporting cereal companies. CIARA drew up an explosive “memo”. Miguel Pesce has a draft and a copy received this Thursday from Guzmán. This Friday it will be Kulfas's turn.

The document - it has a constructive tone - warns of an alarming point: that there could be a shortage of dollars between June and October.

It says that the producers will sit on top of the soybeans waiting for the electoral result.

The work led by Gustavo Idígoras is concrete: Argentina will bill an additional 9,000 million dollars for soybeans.

But he warns: the producers are going to cover their costs and then stop the liquidations of the harvest.

This is how the document concludes: settlement is guaranteed only until the beginning of June.

Then they will rearrange the bills.

The warning is concrete.

In the BCRA they take it into account and the board is in constant deliberation: because if this prediction is fulfilled, the “Autumn Plan” could be blown up.

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