Enlarge image
Want to become Chancellor: Annalena Baerbock
Photo:
Kay Nietfeld / dpa
For a good half an hour there has been well-kept boredom at Christine Lagarde's press conference.
The head of the European Central Bank has little new to tell, neither about the Corona security purchases nor the key interest rate.
But then comes the K question.
A French journalist wants to know what she actually thinks about the fact that the German Greens have just made a 40-year-old former trampoline jumper without any government experience a candidate for chancellor.
And what does Lagarde think of the fact that this Annalena Baerbock may soon lead the largest economy in the EU.
Lagarde could now do what senior EU officials practically always do when they are asked about future election results in member states: say in a friendly manner that one does not say anything.
But Lagarde suddenly seems wide awake.
Competitive sport, whether synchronized swimming or trampoline jumping, could give "competitive spirit, a thick skin and the desire for top performance," enthuses the Frenchwoman.
"And that clearly seems to be the case with Ms. Baerbock." In addition, you don't have to have gray or white hair to go into politics, the 65-year-old remarks, pointing to her silver head.
In addition, climate and environmental protection are important to Baerbock, just like you.
The surprising praise of the ECB boss is currently the exception in Brussels.
Since the Greens made Baerbock their candidate for Chancellor and the Union parties and their candidate Armin Laschet have been harassing in polls, it has dawned on many at EU headquarters for the first time that the Greens could actually take the lead in Berlin.
In some cases, this creates considerable uncertainty - also because Baerbock has only vaguely hinted at what she intends to do with Germany and Europe since her nomination.
»Significant break with the current federal government«
In Brussels, many observers believe that it is at least certain that there will be far-reaching changes.
"In terms of content, a green chancellorship would be a major break with the current federal government," says Guntram Wolff, director of the influential Brussels think tank Bruegel.
For Nicolai von Ondarza, European policy expert at the Berlin Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), it would even be a "small revolution" if the Greens not only led an EU country for the first time, but also the one with the most inhabitants and the largest economy.
In addition, there would be a change of course in a number of areas if Baerbock were to take their own announcements or the Greens election manifesto seriously.
There would be
climate policy
, for example
.
Only this week, after months of negotiations, the EU decided to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
That is not enough for the Greens: At the EU level, they recently called for 60 percent, for Germany it should be 70 percent.
That would probably not only lead to serious trouble with German industry, but also with eastern EU countries such as Poland, which are still heavily dependent on coal electricity.
In general, the east. "The positions of the Greens in matters of
migration
,
rule of law
and
LGBTQ rights
harbor considerable conflict with partners in Central and Eastern Europe," says SWP man Ondarza. An EU diplomat puts it this way: "Some will hold their breath before the federal election."
In
terms
of
energy policy
, Baerbock is likely to clash with French President Emmanuel Macron, who wants to continue to use atomic energy intensively and even want it to be declared an eco-energy source at EU level. The Greens, on the other hand, want to "push ahead with the exit" in the EU too. "It will be a real conflict," says Bruegel director Wolff, especially since Baerbock is likely to come under pressure from their party base, which is hostile to nuclear power.
In
defense and security
, too, the friction between Paris and Berlin could intensify under Chancellor Baerbock. Although Baerbock announced in December that he wanted to talk to Macron about "robust European military operations", he also admitted: "It will not be easy." That the Greens and Baerbock the withdrawal of all US nuclear weapons from Europe and Germany's accession to the global nuclear ban treaty demand, should in turn provoke the suspicion of the Baltic and Eastern Europeans, who feel threatened by Russia. With such a position, Baerbock would also be at odds with NATO, which is also based in Brussels.
In
financial policy,
on the other hand, one should look forward to a Green Chancellor, at least in Paris.
"In the development of the Eurozone, she would be much closer to Macron's ideas, for example to soften the Stability and Growth Pact, than Merkel," says Ondarza.
In their election manifesto, the Greens are demanding their own taxes for the EU and a reform of the debt rules in order to prevent "excessive pressure to save" and to allow higher future investments in the EU states.
In the ears of Macron and other heads of government in southern Europe, this is likely to be music, in which the Dutch, Scandinavians and German friends of the "black zero" tend to be devilish.
Perhaps the greatest conflicts loom in the area of
trade policy
, in which the EU - unlike in most other important policy areas - has sole competence. The Green Party rejects the free trade agreement with the South American Mercosur states, which the Commission has already negotiated but has not yet ratified, as "environmentally harmful". They even report “considerable criticism” of the Ceta agreement with Canada, which is already provisionally in parts in part, and do not want to ratify it in its current version. "That does not result in sufficient stability for a common trade policy," criticizes Bernd Lange (SPD), head of the powerful trade committee of the EU Parliament. It is true that there are protectionist tendencies in other EU countries as well. "But if Germany were to take such a position, the EU's strategic direction would be up for debate," warns Lange.Ondarza sees it similarly: "A Germany under green leadership would clearly shift the weight in the EU in favor of the critics of free trade agreements."
Lange also sees problems
emerging
in the
relationship with the USA and China
.
The Greens want the so-called CO₂ border adjustment.
The levy on climate-damaging imports is intended to protect EU companies from disadvantages in competition with competitors who are not subject to the strict EU climate protection requirements.
That could spark conflicts not only with China and the USA, but also with the World Trade Organization.
The Greens, however, are already counting on income from the levy in their election manifesto in order to finance future investments by the EU.
Baerbock without a Brussels power base
However, Baerbock would not only have to enforce this against her coalition partner.
In Brussels, too, at least initially, she would have a difficult time, if only because she is a Green.
There is no Green or Green among the 27 EU Commissioners, and the same applies to the Council of Heads of State and Government.
If its liberal, social democratic and conservative members meet before EU summits for the purpose of coordination, Baerbock would be left out.
That distinguishes her from Angela Merkel, who thanks to the European People's Party "was integrated into the EU power networks at an early stage," says SWP expert Ondarza.
"In 2004, even before she became Chancellor, Merkel enforced José Manuel Barroso as Commission Head through the EPP." In addition, Merkel was a regular guest in Brussels from 1991 to 1998 as Minister for Women and then as Minister for the Environment.
Baerbock, on the other hand, is largely a blank slate in the Brussels apparatus.
Nevertheless, for some it almost seems like a luxury problem given the fact that populists have only just led Great Britain out of the EU, almost took over power in France and are already in power in Poland, Hungary or Slovenia.
With Baerbock, Laschet and SPD finance minister Olaf Scholz, as a Brussels official put it, after all, only proven pro-Europeans are German chancellor candidates.
