Dozens of rockets fired from the Gaza Strip are Hamas' response to events in the capital • The terrorist organization is not currently interested in escalation, but is operating under pressure from the street and social networks • Israel's problem: The riots do not have a single significant factor.
It is impossible to disconnect the events of Saturday night in the Gaza Strip from what has been happening in recent days in Jerusalem.
Hamas sought to convey sympathy with the struggle of the residents of the east of the city, and allowed the rebellious organizations to launch rockets at Israel.
Commissioner of Police on the riots in Jerusalem, tonight // Photo: Yoni Rickner
The result - 36 rockets and mortar shells - was apparently beyond what Hamas had planned.
The Israeli response was also consistent: after a minor attack in response to the launch of the first rockets, the response threshold was significantly raised as launches from Gaza continued, and the IDF took the opportunity to hit several targets related to Hamas' military buildup project and ammunition.
Hamas has already conveyed messages today (Saturday) that it is not interested in escalation.
In the first place it is doubtful whether he wanted it;
Hamas has no interest in Jerusalem burning, but it does not want it to lead to burning in the Gaza Strip either - which will overshadow what is happening in the capital.
Therefore, he will do everything in his power to fuel the violence in Jerusalem, and at the same time - to calm down in the southern sector.
This is also due to the fact that the situation in the Gaza Strip is good (relatively, after all - this is Gaza) compared to what prevailed there until a few months ago.
The economy is improving, unemployment is falling, and so is the corona.
In the coming weeks, more money is expected to arrive from Qatar in the run-up to the end of Ramadan, and it is doubtful whether Hamas wants to shake up the Strip in the midst of the holiday.
Therefore, he also made sure that the shooting would be only for the envelope sector, and would not include cities deep in Israel.
But it is doubtful whether Hamas will be able to remain indifferent even further if the clashes in Jerusalem continue.
He is challenged on social media, and will have to respond.
The IDF is preparing for this, and today it will strengthen the southern sector with Iron Dome batteries and means of collection, and put additional forces on alert.
However, in the assessments of the situation that took place today at the senior political-security level, it was well clarified that the engine of the events is in Jerusalem, and therefore the main effort should focus on calming the winds in the city.
To this end, a significant reinforcement of the forces in the capital is expected, including the transfer of border companies from Judea and Samaria. The police were also instructed to take a more aggressive hand against the rioters - Arabs and Jews alike.
The main concern expressed in the discussions is that there is no single clear motive for the events.
Unlike the riots that erupted following the decision to place magnometers on the Temple Mount in 2017, this time it is not possible to point to a clear cause for violence.
Part of it is related to Ramadan, part to Corona, and part to videos uploaded to the tic-tac-toe network that made the spirits hot.
Because of this, Israel does not have a single tool it can use (such as removing the magnetometers) to calm the winds at once.
The continued violence in Jerusalem may radiate not only to Gaza, but also to Judea and Samaria and beyond - to the northern arena, and perhaps even to the entire Muslim world. Jerusalem is an easy matter for every Muslim to unite around, and Israel must be careful that events in the capital are not perceived as a religious war. This, as stated, is the reason why Hamas wants to fuel the violence in the capital and intensify it, and this is exactly why Israel must do everything to cool it, certainly when in the background is the Palestinian Authority elections next month, and Israel is expected not to allow East Jerusalem residents to participate.
Fears that events in Jerusalem would escalate and cost more arenas led to the chief of staff's decision to postpone his departure for a working visit to Washington. Kochavi was scheduled to meet with US military officials and discuss the Iranian issue, but decided to stay in the country. The current day will be calm, he will still fly for a limited visit, when at the same time the heads of the Mossad and the Armed Forces, and the head of the National Security Staff will also arrive in Washington this week.
All of these visits will be part of the Israeli pressure on the administration not to return to the original nuclear agreement with Iran without making changes, although Jerusalem expressed pessimism over the weekend that this was possible.
It is estimated that the meetings are being held as part of the Biden administration's commitment to be attentive to Israel and the close relations between senior officials in the two countries, but it seems that the tide has fallen and the Americans are expected to return to the agreement soon.
