The Limited Times

Now you can see non-English news...

Elections 2021: how much the postponement can influence and what the latest polls say

2021-04-29T10:29:31.621Z


The impact on vaccination and the economy. Plus one key fact: what percentage would guarantee a win.


Eduardo Paladini

04/26/2021 11:55 PM

  • Clarín.com

  • Politics

Updated 04/26/2021 11:55 PM

In March 2009, still stunned by the lost conflict against the field and after a recent electoral defeat in Catamarca,

Néstor and Cristina Kirchner decided to advance the national legislatures

. The central speculation was

economic

: as the forecasts for the following months in activity were negative, they ran the vote from October to June. But there was also a

political

motivation

: they sought to avoid other previous falls in provincial elections, since several governors had set their local elections for the first semester. The barbaric-sounding play in the lab flopped onstage. In the worst way: Kirchner himself - allied with

Sergio Massa

and even with

Nacha Guevara

on the list - he ended up defeated in the province of Buenos Aires by the pair

Franciso De Narváez

-

Felipe Solá

. The latter were sponsored by

Mauricio Macri

. Other times.

Now Kirchnerism, no longer as a Front for Victory but as a

Front for All

, decided to

go back into the rehearsal room

.

And he concluded that it is convenient to go the opposite way.

Touch the electoral calendar, but backwards.

Postpone the PASO to September 12 and the general election to November 14.

One month

delay

, as agreed with his rivals from

Together for Change

.

The

theory is once again economic

and, due to the pandemic,

also health

.

A little longer will allow more people to be vaccinated and will help the activity give clearer signs of recovery.

The Government is betting that the vaccination plan is well advanced for the elections.

The STEP would be on September 12.

One piece of information alerted the government strategists in particular.

After several months of rising month-on-month, the economy fell in February compared to January.

All in a context from bad to very bad, in which in the best of cases it returns to a starting point that was not so good either.

With these variables,

does procrastination work?

Can it have a major impact on voters?

Speaks first economist

Ricardo Delgado

of consultancy

Analytica

and former official 's

change:

"The decision to postpone the two elections for a month responds to the

main tool of economic and electoral policy

that the Government has today, which is the vaccination plan. Clearly it is an element of economic policy because the less you vaccinate, the more likely you are to have You have to add restrictions and the activity suffers. If you vaccinate 200,000 people per business day, you would reach 4,000,000 a month, and that is equivalent to 10% of the population, "says Delgado.

And complete: "

Knowing that the vaccine is also improves prospects

. That second semester we believe that it will be better in economic terms and 2021, for us, will close with seven points of rise: five of drag and two of real growth. And finally of the year, it would be at the same levels of December 2019 ".


Postponement, the lesser evil for the opposition


The political scientist

Lucas Romero

, from the

Synopsis

pollster,

adds his gaze

:

"The modification of the deadline obviously has advantages for the Front of All. For vaccines and the economy, as most agree. By the same logic, it

is understood the convenience for the ruling party to suspend the STEP directly

, since it would buy more time still. And this explains why Juntos por el Cambio endorsed the postponement. He saw that the ruling party had the votes with other allies to suspend the PASO and said 'let's at least get the commitment that they will be made.' 

Silvia Lospenatto, Mario Negri, Cristian Ritondo and Alfredo Cornejo.

Referents of the opposition in Congress.

Photo Rolando Andrade Stracuzzi.

The analyst insists on this point:

postponing the STEP, for the opposition, would be "the lesser evil"

, since it allows it to maintain this instance that serves to "order" the anti-K vote. This was clear to Cambiemos since the 2015 elections. Even in the 2019 defeat, Macri discounted about 8 points against Fernández between the primaries and the general election.

Synopsis

has a report that analyzes what happened in the last four elections in the province of Buenos Aires.

For the comparison to be accurate, always take the results for the category of deputies.

And the work shows that between the PASO and the general election, from 2013 to 2019,

the main opposition force to Kirchnerism grew 26% on average

;

while Kirchnerism did only 7% between one election and another.


How is the fight today

The concern of the ruling party to suspend the PASO or at least postpone the two electoral rounds would be explained, in part, by the numbers of the polls that have been measuring the pulse for the

2021 legislative elections

for almost a year

.

The comparison with the last parameter, from 2019, turns on alerts in the Front of All.

Always, of course, within an open and uncertain panorama and with a negative precedent for the consultants, who screwed up their predictions for the presidential election.

Clarín

agreed in April to

half a dozen

national

voting intention forecasts

.

With a distinction: some consultants have been measuring at a general level, official vs.

opposition, and others distinguish the results by the main alliances.

National survey of Jorge Giacobbe's consulting firm.

His forecast for this year's legislative elections.

National survey of the consulting firm Synopsis.

His forecast for this year's legislative elections.

With nuances, roughly the polls have been showing a decline in the ruling party,

coinciding with other red numbers

, such as the fall in the image of Alberto Fernández and in the approval of his management. 

Jorge Giacobbe

was the first to publish his data, in June of last year.

He has been asking at the national level if the people want the Frente de Todos to win or lose.

In his last job,

27% were in favor of the ruling party and 56.7% against

.

13.9% "don't care" and complete the "ns / nc".

National survey of the consulting firm Zuban Córdoba.

His forecast for this year's legislative elections.

National survey of the Real Time Data consultancy.

His forecast for this year's legislative elections.

- With the same idea binary, for

Synopsis

one

30% "would vote today officialdom"

and

58.3% "another opposition force"

.

The "ns / nc" reach 11.7%.

- For

Real Time Data

, meanwhile,

32% would choose "government candidate"

and

52% "opposition candidates

.

"

- For

Zuban Córdoba

, finally,

32.4%

would opt for

"candidates who support the Government"

,

39.1%

for

"candidates opposed to the Government"

and 28.5% "ns / nc".

Two other firms presented more detailed results:

National survey of the Opinaia consultancy.

His forecast for this year's legislative elections.

National survey of the consulting firm Acierto.

His forecast for this year's legislative elections.

-

Opinaia

grants

25%

voting intention to

Together for Change

and

24%

to

Frente de Todos

.

And with 26% undecided, a triple tie is configured.

Then come "none" (12%), Awakening Front (5%), Peronism no K (4%) and the Left Front and the NOS Front close, with 2% each.

-

Success

also poses a similar scenario:

Together for Change 24.4%

,

Frente de Todos 23.1%

, Liberals 8%, Federal Consensus 2.7%, Nationalists 2.1%, Left 2.1%.

They complete "Other" 2.7%, "None" 7.1% and "Undecided" 27.8%.

How much does it take to win?

Although the national mid-term elections are actually 24 separate fights, one of the readings that was made and will also be done this time is from the

sum total

, especially of the main forces.

With the same logic that the national surveys mentioned above are published.

A common question is how much does it take at the country level to win this type of legislative election.

A clue appears in a very interesting study from the

Austral University

.

The work was coordinated by Dr.

Federico Landera

, an expert in Electoral Law from the School of Politics, Government and International Relations.

Austral University study on mid-term elections since the return of democracy.

The study analyzes the mid-term elections from 85 to 2017: 10 elections in total.

In seven the ruling party won and in only three, the opposition

: the PJ in '87, the Alliance in '97 and the PJ in 2001. That is, 20 years have passed since the last mid-term opposition victory.

And regarding the percentages of the winners, in general they were

a little over 40%

.

In other words, even dropping 8 or 10 points compared to 2019, the Frente de Todos could be the most voted in the whole country.

The

exceptions to this parameter

were the national triumphs of the Frente para la Victoria in 2009 and 2013, with just 30%, in atomized scenarios and the province of Buenos Aires having lost in both cases.  

Source: clarin

All news articles on 2021-04-29

You may like

Trends 24h

Latest

© Communities 2019 - Privacy

The information on this site is from external sources that are not under our control.
The inclusion of any links does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them.