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Hertz Shapira
Growth may be even higher than forecast, according to economists at Leumi's Economics Division, led by Dr. Gil Befman.
In the weekly macro survey of the composite index to examine the state of the economy in March, Leumi economists note that "the composite index data shows growth of 3.4. "(In annual terms) in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous one, thus they may indicate a positive growth rate at a moderate single-digit rate also in the gross domestic product in the first quarter of the year - a figure that is expected to be published during the next month."
Leumi economists add: "In our estimation, in a key scenario, 2021 is expected to amount to growth of 5.2%, and in a scenario of continued rapid opening of the economy, without re-emergencies of disease, the growth rate may be higher."
In the foreign trade sector, national economists note that the "basic" trade deficit reached a record high in the first quarter of the year, adding that "the surplus in the services account is expected to be maintained at a high level in light of continued high growth in high-tech services."
As for private consumption, it was noted that the removal of corona restrictions and a return to extensive activity support private consumption activity.
According to national economists, in a key scenario, private consumption is expected to grow by about 9% in 2021, with industries affected by the crisis to a more significant extent (mainly current consumption of services) expected to lead the growth.
The composite index rose
Meanwhile, the Bank of Israel published the composite index for the state of the economy, which rose by 0.5% last March.
This is against the background of the abolition of most of the restrictions on dealing with the corona virus and the expansion of economic activity in the economy as a result.
"These changes were made possible following the progress of the vaccination campaign, which began in Israel in December 2020 and succeeded in moderating morbidity and infection," the Bank of Israel explains.
"As an expression of the reopening and wide-ranging of businesses (excluding foreign tourism), the vacancy rate soared in March to a record high for this indicator."
The rate of referral jobs is a derivative of the payment of sick leave until the end of June - which is a negative incentive to go to work.
The March index is slightly higher than that of February (0.45%).
On the other hand, in November-December, before the color of vaccines and the third closure, the index was higher, ranging from 0.67% to 0.81%.
Beyond the vacancies, the composite index for March was positively affected by increases in imports of consumer goods (March), imports of inputs for production (March), exports of services (January), index of revenue in services (February) and index of revenue in retail trade (February).
Naturally the most impressive recovery was in retail trade revenue, which jumped 6.2% in February, after falling 6.1% in January and 0.2% in December.
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