Between rotation and elections: In what composition can a government be formed and what will bring us back to the polls? | Israel today

After the explosion at the cabinet meeting, the political tangle is only getting more complicated • A government with Netanyahu and Gantz, a team of Lapid and Bennett, or a direct election?

• The options at hand

• Netanyahu and Gantz

  Photo: 

  Olivia Fitoussi / Flash 90 - Archive

• Lapid and Bennett

  Photo: 

  Israel Salem Soup

• President Rivlin

  Photo: 

  Oren Ben Hakon

In less than a week, the mandate received by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the president to form a government will end, and the political system is still struggling to find a way out of the mess.

We examined the options available to Knesset members, and here they are:

1. A right-wing government led by Netanyahu

So far, the prime minister has failed to persuade religious Zionist chairman Bezalel Smutrich to sit in a government backed by the PM, nor has he succeeded in bringing in defectors from other parties, but that does not mean the chances are slim.

This possibility still exists, although, as it was in the beginning, the chances of it succeeding are very low.

Bennett: I will work to form a unity government // Photo: Knesset Channel

2. A right-wing government with Netanyahu in rotation

The most talked about option in recent days after the prime minister expressed in closed talks the right to compromise for the purpose of forming a right-wing government, and let another candidate be prime minister for a year, while he will be the replacement prime minister during this period.

In the options considered for the first candidate in the rotation: Naftali Bennett, Gideon Saar or another senior Likud official.

The chances of this at this stage seem not bad, and negotiations with Gideon Saar and Naftali Bennett on the subject are in full swing.

3. Rotation government between Netanyahu and Gantz

Contrary to the previous possibility, that if successful, it will lead to the formation of a right-wing government, if there is a similar agreement with Blue and White, you can form a coalition of 60 MKs, without Bennett and without Assault.

4. The government of Lapid and Bennett with the joint support or RAAM

The Left Bloc is eagerly awaiting the possibility of Queen Naftali Bennett as prime minister, provided they succeed in their mission to remove Netanyahu from power.

Contacts between the parties, including an initial division of the portfolios, are already underway, and despite strong opposition from the right, there is a good chance that such a government will be formed.

5. The Bennett-Lapid government with the support of the ultra-Orthodox

This is one of Naftali Bennett's favorite options, and contacts on the subject have actually already begun.

According to this scenario, the left-wing government led by Bennett and Lapid, or as Saar and Bennett called it, a "unity government," will not be based on the support of the Arab factions but on the ultra-Orthodox factions, which will abandon Netanyahu after his failure and form the new government.

If that happens, Bennett will be able to give up not only the support of the Arab factions but perhaps also Meretz or Yisrael Beiteinu.

The chances of that now seem very low.

6. Going to the fifth election

If Netanyahu fails to return the mandate, President Rivlin will have to decide whether to grant the mandate to another Knesset member, such as Yair Lapid or Naftali Bennett, or transfer it directly to the Knesset.

In the opinion of all parties, if the mandate is transferred to the Knesset, it will most likely lead to further elections.

However, even if the president imposes the mandate on Lapid or Bennett, even then there is no guarantee that the parties will succeed in bridging the gaps and forming a coalition that will win the Knesset's trust.

In that case, in 21 days, the Knesset will dissolve again and we will go to the fifth election within two years.

7. Direct selection

Just a week ago, Netanyahu pushed with all his might to go to the polls directly for prime minister.

From then until today, the proposal seems to have melted away with the many spins and messages that flooded the political system, but it is not certain that the idea has completely died out.

If the assessment that the Knesset is about to disperse increases, the proposal may return to the forefront.

The newly elected Knesset members will not be in a hurry to disperse themselves to know, and a direct election will leave everyone, on the staffs of their bureaus, on their seats.

The big question is whether in such a situation the prime minister will continue to support it, or whether he would prefer to disperse the entire Knesset.