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CDU Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet with his green competitor Annalena Baerbock at the Munich Security Conference 2020
Photo: AFP
Olaf Scholz, Annalena Baerbock, Armin Laschet - the three-way battle for the Chancellery can begin.
In the case of the Union, one can speak of a false start.
After Laschet's freestyle for chancellor candidate she slipped in a SPIEGEL survey, the Greens with their top candidate Baerbock improved significantly and overtook the CDU / CSU.
There are still months until the election, but the calculations are already being made.
An absolute majority is not in sight for anyone.
The more exciting is the question of who is moving into the Chancellery - and which governing coalition there will be.
The interesting thing is that at least arithmetically, several coalitions are currently possible, such as a
black-green alliance
of the Union and the Greens.
Together, the parties would get around 53 percent of the vote.
For a
green-red-red government alliance
of the Greens, the SPD and the Left, it would be tight according to the current status.
According to the Civey poll, the SPD only got 15 percent of the vote, the left has six percent - with the Greens that would currently only be wafer-thin enough.
A
traffic light alliance
of the Greens, SPD and FDP (currently at 11 percent) and a
Jamaica alliance
of the Union, Greens and FDP
would have more comfortable majorities
.
Only one thing is clear: only the Greens would be represented in each of these constellations.
But which coalitions are the citizens hoping for?
Black-green and green-red-red with some distance in front
According to a representative survey by the opinion research institute Civey for SPIEGEL, well over half of the respondents would like the Greens to participate in government.
20 percent are in favor of black-green, 19 percent favor a green-red-red alliance.
In contrast, fewer respondents can warm up to a Jamaican coalition.
And a traffic light coalition would be about as popular as a continuation of the GroKo.
It should be noted that the respondents expressed their preference for black and green.
Strictly speaking, this implies a coalition led by the Union.
In addition, not all theoretically and computationally possible coalitions were queried in the survey.
For example, possible coalitions with the AfD have not been taken into account because all other parties have so far ruled out cooperation with the far right.
Alliances between the CDU and the left were also not available.
Black-green is not the first choice for green fans
The Greens had "little to offer in terms of content," Laschet teased at last.
"She talks, I act," he said about Baerbock.
The supporters of his party are apparently less skeptical about the ability of the Greens to govern.
More than one or one in three thinks black-green is the best option, a Jamaican alliance wants about one in four union supporters.
In contrast, black-green is only second choice among Greens sympathizers.
40 percent want a government with the SPD and the Left as junior partners.
Far less popular with supporters of the Greens is a coalition with the Union.
Only 24 percent are in favor, the approval ratings for a traffic light alliance are even lower.
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GroKo rejection is particularly high among young people
It is noticeable that sympathy for certain coalitions fluctuates greatly in different age groups.
A continuation of the GroKo, for example, is particularly desired among the over-65s.
But at 17 percent, this option is not the first choice even in this group.
For 18 to 29 year olds, on the other hand, a green-red-red alliance is ahead. More than one or four people in this age group would like the left in the government, followed by the Jamaica and traffic light coalitions (around 16 percent each). Only five percent of young people are in favor of a new GroKo.