In Washington
The United States is on track for the strongest growth since 1984 this year. According to the first official estimate, the expansion from January to March reached an annual rate of 6.4%.
The performance is slightly better than economists' expectations.
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Four important factors are boosting demand at the start of the year. The first is the stimulus plan adopted shortly after Christmas under Donald Trump. Worth a total of 900 billion dollars, it extended aid to the long-term unemployed, as well as to businesses, while paying 166 billion in direct aid to consumers in the form of checks issued by the Treasury. At the beginning of March, under the presidency of Joe Biden, a new legislative stimulus package, amounting to 1900 billion, of which 400 billion also in the form of Treasury checks, was put in place.
Third source of the surge in consumption: the success of massive vaccination campaigns.
The peak of the pandemic occurred in early January in the United States.
The inoculation to date of 43% of the population at least with one dose, and of 30% with two doses, not only allows a gradual deconfinement, but immediately revives consumption, thanks to the reopening of bars, restaurants, cinemas and more. air connections.
Accumulated savings surplus
In addition, the savings surplus of around $ 1.6 trillion, accumulated during the months of confinement, is now used by vaccinated Americans who are regaining their confidence. According to the Department of Commerce, consumer spending exploded at a rate of 10.7% in the first quarter. Investment is experiencing an equivalent acceleration. The return of consumption and confidence is bolstered by the drop in unemployment to 6% in March and the acceleration in hiring.
However, the Federal Reserve is maintaining its ultra-stimulating policy and promises to stick to it as long as the level of employment has not approached its level prior to the pandemic. At the end of March there were still 8.4 million jobs lacking in the United States compared to February 2020, or 5.5% of the working population.
