New disagreements between Pesce and Guzmán over exchange rate policy

04/29/2021 11:47 PM

• Clarín.com

• Opinion

Updated 04/29/2021 11:47 PM

Miguel Pesce expressed his differences

with the exchange policy that he implements by order of Minister

Martín Guzmán

.

Pesce basically does not share the heart of the anti-inflation strategy:

lagging the exchange rate.

He exposed it almost in public, in a meeting of a dozen people, in the very heart of the Central Bank.

It happened in the session of the strategic board meeting of the monetary authority.

There was strong deliberation on the monetary tactic and the low level - in real terms - of interest rates.

Pesce defended the policy: he said it was a strategy to sustain economic activity.

But - at that time - one of the historic directors went to the bone: he affirmed that the rates - at least - and the policy of monthly devaluation, had to be converging for the market.

Pesce countered. A

loud and to be heard all

said: "I disagree with the exchange rate

policy of delaying the price of the dollar" It was the

entire leadership of the Central Bank, a dozen officers and several of his advisers both vice presidents and.. The majority of the board of directors. Among them, the delegates of the head of the Palacio de Hacienda. One was Diego Bastourre. He was placed there to monitor Pesce. Guzmán placed him - as "his eyes" - on the board of the BCRA. The former secretary of Finance kept his mouth shut and did not refute the criticisms of the BCRA head, preferring silence.

The formal delegate of the Palacio de Hacienda in the BCRA, Mariano Sardi, current Secretary of Finance, also participated.

He emitted a resounding silence.

A few hours later,

Guzmán had a full report.

It was the day Guzmán returned from Moscow.

The Buenos Aires City burned all week.

It was the comment - by word of mouth - of the bankers.

The issue was discussed in both banking entities: ABA and ADEBA, and also the UIA.

The fight between Guzmán and Pesce remains latent.

Now, the differences appeared again, as soon as the first escalation of the ticket emerged.

Also, when grain companies and producers are defining when to sit on the "silo-bags".

Pesce -always- promoted an update of the dollar.

He is convinced that delaying the ticket generates a "placebo effect" in the immediate

future

, but

a headache in the future

.

But the minister twisted his arm.

It was after the mistakes of the BCRA, which triggered an exchange run in September: there was a

flight of 5,000 million dollars

and the financial dollar increased 100%.

Guzmán took control and advanced on the BCRA.

It imposed an auditor of the money desk, Lisandro Cleri, who with the ANSeS Guarantee Fund actively operates to put cold cloths on the dollar.

The minister maintains control of the exchange rate policy.

Because it has the support of the top leaders of the Frente de Todos.

Cristina and Alberto

are ready to do anything to achieve an electoral victory

in the spring. Even putting the exchange rate in a pressure cooker. Inflation in March fell like a bomb and put the entire strategy into question. The index falls in April, but remains high: above 3%. Real inflation makes the official goal of 29% almost unfeasible. It also consolidates a dangerous exchange rate delay.

Cristina's team brought up her teenage ideas.

Spokesmen for the Instituto Patria and La Cámpora launched a maneuver to

harass Marco Lavagna.

For the hard “Christianity”, Argentina's problem is not that inflation overheats.

His collaborators believe that it happens on the other hand: that INDEC does not draw inflation, as Cristina did.

The unusual objection to Marco Lavagna caused a buzz on Wall Street.

There are sovereign bonds that are traded by price evolution and this was noted in a JP Morgan report.

The INDEC chief conveyed serenity: “They are operations.

There is no need to worry ”.

But Roberto Lavagna would have received inquiries from industrial “priests”.

Many Wall Street "wolves" asked this question:

do you want Guillermo Moreno's practices to return?

For this reason, Guzmán came out to support Lavagna's management.

He did it diplomatically so as not to irritate the beasts of Kirchnerism.

Moreno intervened INDEC and did terrible damage to Argentina's credibility.

The noise about exchange policy, the new differences between Pesce and Guzmán and the fire on INDEC came at a crucial moment.

The Casa Rosada

has decided not to make an agreement with the IMF.

The minister himself suggested it in a concrete way in the meeting with Emmanuel Moulin.

In France there was a meeting between Guzmán and Moulin.

The official is powerful: head of the French Treasury and president of the Paris Club.

It was a technical and sincere dialogue: there was talk of the

imminent expiration - next week - for 2.3 billion dollars.

Guzmán got to the point: he told him that Argentina will use all the legal deadlines to cancel the debt.

And he also confirmed the secret news: that the millionaire maturity will be paid with the expansion of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) prepared by the IMF.

In other words: that Argentina will not make an agreement with the IMF to refinance its debts with the Paris Club, nor with the Fund itself.

The version is included in an informal "memo" that was prepared for the staff and directors of the Paris Club.

The decision forced the BCRA to take more control measures to increase reserves: Guzmán is

looking for dollars to pay cash

, which he does not cover with the IMF's SDR.

They also want tickets to face currency turbulence in the second half.

The “Sojero Complex” has already warned the Casa Rosada that

the dollars will flow only until mid-June

, but that -after- no one will sell a grain pending the electoral result and an eventual rise in the official dollar.

So they say:

"They are going to sit on top of the silo-bags."

This scenario

accelerated the turnstiles

: the economic team closed the permits to import again.

The lock affects production and breaches commitments made by the Ministry of Production.

The ADEFA terminals led by Daniel Herrero, complained to Matías Kulfas.

The unforeseen turnstile slows down expansion plans.

Kristalina Giorgieva receives daily reports on the evolution of reserves in Argentina.

As

Clarín

announced

, bureaucrat Alejandro Werner was displaced from the IMF.

In Washington they did not forgive Werner - and Roberto Cardarelli, also displaced - for leading a negotiation with Mauricio Macri that ended in a multi-million dollar failure.

Both were the "ducks at the wedding."

The extraordinary aid was

decided by Donald Trump and implemented by Christine Lagarde

.

At the IMF, the thread is always cut at the thinnest.

There is a long list of bureaucrats displaced to the library or thrown out of the IMF due to the fiascos with Argentina.

Christian Brachet was the first.

He closed an agreement with Bernardo Grinspun and ended up ordering books at the IMF.

The Catalan Joaquín Ferrán was another auditor who ended up in a dark fate.

The same luck had the Hindu Anoop Singh and, now, the list is completed by Werner.

This impossible relationship with the IMF raises a serious question:

when will Argentina avoid the patches and try a serious program of economic development?

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