For political scientist Stéphane Zumsteeg, director of the opinion and policy department of the Ipsos polling institute, the presidential majority is continuing its strategy of fracturing the right.
One year before the presidential election, is this withdrawal from the LREM list in favor of outgoing LR president Renaud Muselier a bad blow to the Republicans?
STÉPHANE ZUMSTEEG.
This is another blow from Emmanuel Macron to dynamite the right, as he did with the left during the presidential election.
It started with the appointment of Édouard Philippe to Matignon: we saw the translation in the 2019 European elections with the very disappointing result for the LR list.
Here, he pursues a clear double objective: to hinder as much as possible the emergence of a credible candidacy from the Republicans or the classic right for the presidential election and to create a vacuum, at least in part, between him and the National Gathering by occupying as much space as possible.
Can this alliance contribute to further fracture the right-wing electorate?
It is too early to tell, but we have seen that this has already contributed to sowing trouble within the LR apparatus and among its caciques.
By adding to the confusion, the declared will of La République en Marche is to cut in two what remains of the right-wing sympathizers and to capture an important part in the perspective of the regional elections and especially the presidential election. .
A movement already underway: since the start of the five-year term, part of the 20% of French people who voted François Fillon has already deported to the President of the Republic, seduced by his economic, social and fiscal policy perceived as right-wing or Center-right.
Read alsoRegional elections: 5 minutes to understand the Muselier-LREM alliance in Paca
Conversely, can this accelerate the transition from LR voters to RN?
The operation can indeed put off the most right-wing and anti-Macronist fringe of the electorate.
We have seen in recent years that the porosity between the electorate of the Republicans and the electorate of the RN was increasingly strong.
Especially since, given the electoral shrinkage of LR, those who continue to say they are sympathizers are more to the right.
Does this agreement strengthen the candidacy of Renaud Muselier in Paca?
On paper, it seems a good operation for Renaud Muselier but it does not guarantee his victory. An election is not arithmetic. We saw it during the municipal elections: when the Republic in March joined forces with the right in Lyon and Bordeaux, it lost. But if Muselier wins, the leaders of LREM will be tempted to say that the presidential majority contributed to the victory in Paca by making a bulwark against the RN.