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Saudi heir softens tone with Iran

2021-05-04T08:04:32.041Z


Prince Mohamed Bin Salmán shows signs of wanting to understand Tehran, a gesture directed at the United States


Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, left, during last Tuesday's interview on Saudi television COURTESY OF SAUDI ROYAL COURT / Reuters

Prince Mohamed Bin Salmán, heir and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has returned to the forefront of political affairs. After months during which he subordinated his role to that of his father, King Salmán, he has given a long television interview in prime time in the country. In addition to defending his economic and social reforms, the 35-year-old future monarch has also signaled his willingness to reach an understanding with Iran. But more than a change of course, that conciliatory tone seems above all a gesture towards the United States.

Although foreign policy barely occupied the final 10 minutes of the hour and a half that the interview lasted, broadcast a week ago, its message has unleashed rivers of ink.

MBS, as the Saudi heir is colloquially known, said the kingdom wants to resolve differences with the Islamic Republic, its main rival in the region.

“After all, Iran is a neighboring country.

(…) The problem we have lies in certain negative behaviors of yours, be it its nuclear program, its support for illegal militias in some countries in the area, or its ballistic missile program, ”he declared during his appointment with the Saudi chain Al Arabiya last Tuesday.

"We hope to overcome [the obstacles] and establish a good relationship with Iran that benefits everyone," he added.

More information

  • Intimate enemies

  • Saudi Arabia rejects US report on Khashoggi assassination

Those statements undoubtedly mark a change of tone.

Since his father came to the throne six years ago and he took over the day-to-day management, Prince Mohamed has regularly criticized Iran, accusing it of fueling conflict in the Middle East and trying to destabilize Saudi Arabia.

Shortly after his appointment as heir in 2017 and when his growing power seemed limitless, MBS referred to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as "the new Hitler of the Middle East."

The heir felt backed by then-US President Donald Trump, who abandoned the nuclear agreement with Iran and punished this country with his policy of maximum pressure. But the attack that disrupted half of Saudi oil production in September 2019 (and Trump's lack of response, despite holding Iran accountable) forced Riyadh to recalibrate its stance. A year later, the election of Joe Biden changed the rules of the game, as seen with the review of arms sales to the kingdom. Before arriving at the White House, he said that he was going to reactivate the nuclear pact, stop supporting the war in Yemen and publish the CIA report on the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi who blamed MBS.

In view of which, the prince chose to remain in the background until the storm passed. His previous interview dates back to a year and a half ago, when he admitted his political responsibility for Khashoggi's murder on a date with carefully prepared American television. He was about to launch the Aramco IPO and was aware that he needed to make some gesture to improve his image, badly damaged by the case. Now he was playing at home, with no serious questions.

Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf Researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, sees Tuesday's interview as "a sign that [MBS] is changing strategy." In his opinion, "he has assessed that the impact of the Biden Administration was manageable, that they have not taken measures that directly challenge his leadership, and he wants to return to the front line." Bianco admits that his statements on Iran and Yemen "mark a turn on his previous positions", but frames it in the change that has taken place in the White House.

“It tries to show its international partners, especially the United States, that Saudi Arabia can adopt a more balanced attitude in the region and be a reliable partner for stability, that it does not close the door to dialogue, but that it has certain needs and interests. ”, He declared to EL PAÍS in an exchange of messages.

Hence, I interpret that "the position of Saudi Arabia has not changed."

“He has always said that they would talk to Iran if it changed its behavior;

it assumes that it is not going to do it because it is inherent in its doctrine as an Islamic Republic ”, he sums up.

Sign

Emirati political commentator Albadr Alshateri disagrees. “It is about a more peaceful posture and a desire to reach a compromise with his arch enemy Iran. It is a sign that Riyadh would support a nuclear agreement if Tehran changes its behavior ”, this former professor at the United Arab Emirates National Defense College explains to EL PAÍS. Alshateri is convinced that the interview “favors the crown prince; it signifies a new beginning for the young leader who paves his way to the throne ”.

The turn on Iran is also supported by the leak two weeks ago that senior Iranian and Saudi officials had met in Baghdad to defuse tension between their countries. Neither party has confirmed this, but the change of tenant in the White House makes the environment conducive to it. The heir himself sent that message when he said: "With the Biden Administration we agree on more than 90% of the matters of mutual interest, and we hope to improve it in one way or another." However, MBS noted that "Saudi Arabia also maintains strategic relations with Russia, India and China."

Kristin S. Diwan, a researcher at the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute, lowers expectations.

"The interview was aimed above all at the Saudi public opinion (...) and sought to defend the commitment to the ambitious social, cultural and economic transformation of the kingdom," he says in an email.

Although he admits that it offered "reassurance for the United States and a new pragmatism on Iran."

In his opinion the difference was in the tone: "less triumphant and grandiose, with greater recognition of the challenges."

A man of confidence to face the blow of the pandemic and the drop in oil

King Salmán has appointed Faisal Bin Fadel al Ibrahim Minister of Economy and Planning of Saudi Arabia, a position that since last year the Finance Minister held on an interim basis, as reported by the state news agency, SPA. The designation comes as the Desert Kingdom tries to overcome the double whammy of the pandemic and falling oil prices. As a result, the largest Arab economy contracted 4.1% in 2020, but the International Monetary Fund estimates that it will grow 2.1% in the current one.


Al Ibrahim, who came to Economy as deputy minister in 2018, comes from the Saudi Aramco quarry, where he was head of the mergers and acquisitions group, among other positions. In addition, he has the confidence of Prince Mohamed Bin Salmán, the heir and de facto ruler, who directs the country's economic policy through the Economic Affairs Development Council, whose secretariat was also supervised by the new minister until now. According to the Saudi media, Al Ibrahim has an MBA from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in addition to degrees in Economics and Accounting from Pennsylvania State University.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2021-05-04

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