Corona expert Karl Lauterbach was often correct with gloomy assumptions.
Now he gives Germany hope.
The numbers will probably fall quickly, he told Merkur.de now.
Munich - It is the long-awaited Corona * hope maker of the SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach: “The current stagnation was to be expected at this point in time.
In some counties the incidence is still rising, in others it is already falling.
That is balanced before there is an exponential drop in the numbers in the middle or end of May, ”he explains at
Lauterbach immediately provides the reason: “The current numbers are not yet due to vaccination.
That only changes when the quota of those vaccinated for the first time is between 40 and 60 percent.
Then the number of cases decreases exponentially.
If you look at our plan, we will be ready in Germany from around the third or fourth week of May.
This also corresponds to modeling. "
Corona numbers soon to descend: Lauterbach sees the effect of the corona emergency brake
From the physicist and modeler Viola Priesemann, for example, who considers incidences well below 50, like last summer, to be very likely - also in the next few weeks, as she said in a hearing in the Corona Advisory Committee of the Bundestag.
Or mobility researcher Kai Nagel, who made a similar point at the meeting.
Lauterbach is certain: “What we are currently seeing, however, is that the main elements of the emergency brake work.
It is now evident that discourse helped even before the law was enforced.
People have become more cautious again. "
After six months of lockdown, people in Germany are slowly waking up from hibernation.
Therefore, easing, as announced by Markus Söder (CSU) for Bavaria, is "on the right track".
Even though Lauterbach restricts: “The emergency brake also applies to Bavaria.” As long as you stick to the emergency brake, things will go well.
"But watch out now: If we were to lift all contact restrictions and let 50 people into one apartment, the number of cases would quickly rise again," he warns.
Bars and clubs without a corona mask open in summer?
Lauterbach doesn't believe in it
Karl Lauterbach is initially assuming a good summer. Similar to the one in 2020. “What happens in the warm months simply depends on our vaccination success. If we have vaccinated over 60 percent, including the children, and over 80 percent in the risk groups, then we will hardly have any deaths over the summer. So it depends on the willingness of the people, enough vaccine is available. "
The gastronomy will be able to open, but the question is still, “Whether you can then open everything, including bars and clubs without a mask, I have to say: I don't think so”.
Even if 70 percent of people got a vaccination, it wouldn't protect the rest from infection.
"Even if the numbers will not increase exponentially again", this should be avoided.
"We will be able to do a lot, but probably not without rapid tests or vaccination certificates," said the epidemiologist in the
Lauterbach: Autumn forecast "dubious" - talk show comeback follows
And in autumn?
Lauterbach does not want to lean too far out of the window: “The situation in autumn is completely unclear, it would be dubious to speculate how it will develop.
It depends on three things: How high is the vaccination rate, do mutations occur that are much more dangerous and how long does the vaccination last?
If something doesn't fit, we get problems again.
After the eye operation, Lauterbach is feeling better again, he says.
Now he has announced that he will be accepting talk show invitations again "shortly".
List of rubric lists: © Oliver Berg / dpa