By Erika Edwards - NBC News
The United States
could have overcome the worst
of the coronavirus pandemic in July, if vaccination continues at a high rate, and if people wear masks and maintain the necessary physical distance when appropriate, according to projections published this Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
These projections are not final, and they can certainly change if
people's behavior changes
in the coming months.
However, they do agree with President Joe Biden's assertion that the United States will be able to achieve a certain degree of "normalcy" by Independence Day.
"A sharp decline in cases is projected for July 2021," the study authors wrote, "with a more rapid decline in high-vaccination scenarios."
Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, said the models suggest
"an even faster decline
if more people get vaccinated earlier."
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"The results remind us that we have a way out of this and the models, who previously predicted gloomy news, now offer reason to be quite hopeful about what the summer can bring," Walensky said Wednesday during a press conference.
"If we can have relatively high vaccination coverage in early July, that can have an impact on transmission," said Michael Johansson, one of the study's authors and co-leader of the COVID-19 response modeling team in the United States. CDC.
But he added, "it also depends on what we do," referring to continued mask use and social distancing where appropriate in the coming months.
"It's the combination of those things that we really need to make sure we're in the best possible position when July rolls around," Johansson said.
Projections also suggest a reduction in COVID-19-related deaths, mainly because most of the most vulnerable - those over 65 - have been vaccinated.
The models are based on what has already been observed during the pandemic, combined with scientific knowledge of how the virus spreads and how mitigation measures affect it.
The combination of these factors has allowed the modelers to get a good indication of what might happen in four different scenarios, taking into account vaccination rates and behaviors.
Six independent research teams - from Northeastern University, the University of Virginia, the University of Southern California, the University of Victoria in Canada, and two groups from Johns Hopkins University - came up with basically the same projection: Vaccines plus Wearing masks and physical distancing equate to a much more manageable outbreak for the summer.
