Madrid-style polarization

Isabel Díaz Ayuso celebrates her victory on the balcony of the headquarters of Father Jesús Hellín, JESUS ​​HELLIN / Europa Press

If one stuck to peek into the daily media and networks to follow the Madrid campaign, if he did not look at a single poll, one could think that the two most extreme options on the ideological spectrum dominated the race.

That this was an issue, to use the characterizations that each side made of the rival, between "communism" or "fascism": between UP and Vox.

But in the end it turned out at the polls that it was more of an issue between an updated version of liberal-conservatism and the new green left. Díaz Ayuso and Mónica García prevailed over their respective bloc rivals, beat the already good expectations predicted by the polls (which, moreover, were remarkably correct), and were crowned to define the political opposition in Madrid during the next two years.

What form will this confrontation take? Again, if the tone of the campaign were the main indicator, one might anticipate a fiery affective polarization: one that focuses on animosity towards the rival rather than on aspects of ideological disagreement. Perhaps the most alarming clue is given by hesitation from side to side to condemn the threats suffered by the candidates at the other extreme: apparently, the differences exceed the principle of union around the censorship of violence as a political channel, and it is always they have found available "buts" (usually tied to the opponent's own hesitations when it came to condemning violence against their own, fueling a vicious circle).

This is undoubtedly a plausible future. In fact, the gap marked by the affective polarization between blocs has been opening more and more in Spain, as the political scientist Lluís Orriols has been able to verify in recent analyzes. To the extent that this gap becomes an abyss, Orriols reasons, it can facilitate the articulation of decision-making in ideologically homogeneous coalitions, such as the one formed in all probability by the PP and VOX in the Community of Madrid. The price we pay for this is less durable and stable policies, because when the opposing bloc comes to power, the affective dimension of polarization translates into the need to change absolutely everything that the previous government did. Insofar as the decision-making process is tied to polarized public debate,governing becomes easier, but less consensual.

It is also the most likely future, not only because the polarization between blocks is installed, but because the results can be read a certain punishment to the most moderate speeches. It is true: the most extreme options have not triumphed, but the ones that have are not the versions centered within each block. There were two candidates with a sharply convergent tone who have obtained results below what is possible, and even what is expected. Meanwhile, Díaz Ayuso has placed his tone as far from the center as possible within his party. She has also done so by highlighting the cultural aspect, firmly rooted in individualism, defining a way (for her "the" way) of being from Madrid. Perhaps less obviously but no less consequently, around the message of Más Madrid there is a competing proposition,connected with the community aspect, of that same being from Madrid, direct heir to the campaigns of Manuela Carmena.

This identity aspect is the main facilitator of the connection between the vote and the discourse. Expanded, it ensures the articulation between affective polarization and block government decisions. Again, an example from Carmena's time comes to mind: Madrid Central sold itself to the public more as the defense of a certain lifestyle (and thus it was attacked from the other side) than as a decision that would report a series of benefits in exchange for other costs distributed in this or that way among society.

But although this future is the most probable, it is not inevitable. The net winners of this election may (should, in fact) understand that their position as second in line for party polarization on either end is a virtue now for grabbing votes, but it can turn into a risk. In the end, there is a point at which the voter starts to prefer the most genuine, authentic version, within his own block.

This journey is more remarkable (and more dangerous) for Ayuso right now, for the simple fact that she moved from the center to the right, while Más Madrid is a split towards the center from the left.

But anyone runs it in a context of exacerbated polarization.

Deactivating it requires a wise balance that foregoes certain gains today to maintain space tomorrow.

The two basic tools for this: the explicit search for certain minimum consensuses and, above all, the focus of all the decisions that Madrid has ahead of it on who will win, who will lose and why with each one of them.

Jorge Galindo

is a sociologist and co-editor of Politikon

Faith of errors

In a previous version of this article, it was said that Ayuso and García would define the political opposition in Madrid during the next four years, when the legislature will end in 2023.