Christophe Barret is a historian and the author of
Podemos.
Pour une autre Europe
(Éd. Du Cerf, 2015) and
La guerre de Catalunya
(Éd. Du Cerf, 2018).
___________________________________________________________
FIGAROVOX. - Pablo Iglesisas, the leader of Podemos, has announced his retirement from political life after his party's defeat in the regional elections in Madrid. How do you analyze this debacle?
Christophe BARRET. -
"
Pablo Iglesias saves the furniture, only the furniture
" as the great
La Vanguardia
columnist
Enric Juliana
said on Wednesday morning
. I had noticed great fatigue in him when he announced his withdrawal from the government. Pablo Iglesias is very disillusioned. He did not know how to measure his unpopularity outside a party where almost everything revolves around himself or what to do with the charisma that was his when he began to be known on television sets in 2014 -2015 - in the aftermath of the Indignados movement, whose tenth anniversary we will be celebrating in a few days.
In the campaign which has just ended, the defense of "democracy" by Iglesias against a right which advocated "Freedom" has not convinced.
Christophe Barret
Then I remember hearing it proclaim - already a year ago!
- that its formation had achieved its main political objective: to bring to the government the political forces situated to the left of the PSOE on the Spanish political spectrum.
In the campaign which has just ended, his defense of
"democracy"
against a right which addressed itself more directly to individuals by advocating "
Liberty
" (the word was chanted again, last night, in front of the headquarters of the PP ), did not convince.
The Popular Party and its new figure, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, obtained more than 44% of the vote. Pablo Iglesias described as "
tragic
" the triumph of the Popular Party, which he described as "
the right trumpiste
" ...
Some criticize Isabel Díaz Ayuso for not being an intellectual. Pablo Iglesias, a former political science professor - whom he will probably return to - translated this sentiment into this expression. Isabel Díaz Ayuso has yet managed a masterful poker stroke! Let us not forget that these elections were early. The outgoing president of the Madrid region provoked them to counter a possible reversal of the alliance which would have seen Ciudadanos, the right-wing Podemos, ally with the PSOE. Its campaign slogan, "
Comunismo o libertad
», Which smelled of civil war, was certainly the mark of a very conservative person.
But the victory she gives her party still strengthens the traditional right-wing party, Vox, which recently created a surprise in Catalonia by passing in front of the Popular Party.
The space of the Spanish right has become homogenized.
Ciudadanos, which recently sought to occupy the center of the political spectrum, has disappeared from the Madrid landscape.
There are therefore only two parties on the right, clearly identifiable in doctrinal terms: Vox and the Popular Party (PP).
Sociologically, Isabel Díaz Ayuso's speech appealed to small entrepreneurs and traders, foremost among which are, of course, those from those sectors that are vital for the region, namely hotels and restaurants.
They appreciate the Madrid strategy of exiting the containment induced by the pandemic [the president of the autonomous community has chosen to leave open shops, restaurants, cafes and even the opera house, Editor's note] and the defense of the almost status of "tax haven Which benefits their region.
Will these elections be a springboard for the right to regain national power?
They open up prospects, but do not guarantee an immediate return to power. The Andalusian PP might want to try the same thing as Diaz Ayuso to get rid of Ciudadanos too. But we do not yet see it in a hegemonic position at the national level. It is very low in the key autonomous communities, such as the Basque Country or Catalonia. As always, the old statute of kingmaker will return, to the Cortes, to 40 to 60 deputies of regionalist formations. We currently know that the PSOE owes Catalan independence to power. The PP and Vox have denounced this situation enough! The ability of the PSOE to maintain links with these Catalan separatists will be decisive for the rest of the events. In this regard, concrete measures are expected in favor of "political prisoners",such as reductions in sentences, pardons and a reform of the Penal Code softening their sentences ...
The only sure thing: Pablo Casado, the head of the PP, is reinforced.
It was his team that had the idea of putting Isabel Díaz Ayuso forward a few years ago.
Christophe Barret
The only sure thing is that the position of Pablo Casado, the head of the PP, is strengthened.
It was his team that had the idea of putting Isabel Díaz Ayuso forward a few years ago.
And Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who only has a relative majority in the regional parliament, cannot yet appear as a threat.
On a European scale, is the radical left in danger of disappearing ... in favor of the right?
Is Podemos still a radical party? The party was attentive to the defense of the rights of independence parties, of course. He was ruthless with weaker institutions, such as the parliamentary monarchy. But you have to keep a low profile in front of the powerful. In the government, he is preparing to accept the recommendations of Brussels in terms of pension reform and labor law, as a prerequisite for the payment of massive aid. And the Madrid press, which has continued to demonize Pablo Iglesias, now praises the sense of dialogue and responsibility of Yolanda Díaz, still minister and possible successor to Pablo Iglesias at the head of Podemos.
The Madrid episode reinforces the emergence of what Gaël Brustier calls “the right-wing oligopoly”, and its promises of freedom, autonomy and free competition. A miracle recipe?