The economic crisis, soon a bad memory?
Reading the latest INSEE economic report encourages optimism.
According to the institute, in May and June activity would rebound step by step, carried by the relief in four stages of health restrictions.
In May, it would remain 4 points below the pre-crisis level, but from June, France would return to the level of activity it had seen in August 2020, at -2.5%, very close to the pace of late 2019 when the coronavirus still seemed a distant threat.
Should we expect a rapid economic recovery after deconfinement?
The growth overhang at the end of June (the level reached in the event of a sluggish second half) would then reach 4.25%.
INSEE is limiting its forecasts to June, but the rebound should continue and even increase in the second half of the year.
All the more so since French production should benefit from international demand:
"Asia has left and the United States are starting to restart
", underlines Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation department at INSEE.
10%: this is the drop in the level of consumption in April 2021 compared to the end of 2019
The forecast of
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