Scotland decides if it wants a new independence referendum

Scotland decides this Thursday if it wants to try a solo path outside the United Kingdom again, but without abandoning the British phlegm. Almost 4.3 million citizens, out of a total population of 5.4, had registered for the regional elections. More than a million, a record number, have already advanced their vote by mail. And yet the count will not begin until noon this Friday. The pandemic restrictions, the Scottish authorities have decided, discouraged rushing at night. It is very possible that until late Saturday afternoon it will not be known if the main minister and candidate of the Scottish National Party (SNP, in its acronym in English), Nicola Sturgeon, reaches the desired absolute majority that allows her to undertake, calmly , the adventure of a new independence referendum.

Scotland has held five regional elections since it regained its Parliament and Government in 1997. Turnout in these elections has always been around 50%, but polls indicate that this time it could come a little closer to the historic record of 84% of the 2014 separatist consultation. Supporters of staying in the UK won then by 55% versus 45%.

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"We have never staked so much in an election," Sturgeon warned in his last speeches before the polls opened. The nationalist leader enjoys high popularity, reinforced by her image of seriousness during the management of the pandemic, despite the fact that the figures are not very different from those registered in the rest of the United Kingdom. With its current 61 seats, out of a Parliament of 129, it governs in a minority with the support of the 5 deputies of the Green Party. If it exceeds 65 deputies, as several polls have predicted, it would be in a position to fulfill its promise to try to launch another independence referendum during the new term.

Boris Johnson resists the idea that, under his government, the country will be fragmented, but so far he has not given a resounding no to the idea, in part because he is aware that the precedent of 2014 weakens his legal position. "I think most people in Scotland think that this is not the time, just as we emerged from the pandemic, to undertake a reckless, and in my opinion irresponsible, new consultation," he said Wednesday.

Labor, for decades the undisputed winners of any election in Scotland, are desperately fighting to regain their position of prominence and wrest second place from the Conservatives. The popularity of their new candidate, Anas Sarwar, has given them a final push in the campaign, but most polls predict that the

Scottish

revalidate the role of the opposition's first party.

Two factors will be decisive in these elections. If the Green Party doubles, as the polls point out, its representation, the path to independence will be clearer. His defense of a new referendum is even more intense than that of Sturgeon herself, who has ruled out a unilateral route that could cast doubt on the legality of the consultation. And the former leader of the SNP Alex Salmond could reach up to 6 deputies with his new party, Alba, with which he would obtain the ability to add greater independence urgency in the Autonomous Assembly and complicate Sturgeon's task.