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Scotland: election analysis - "I expect a long fight for a second referendum"

2021-05-11T20:43:25.804Z


The Scottish National Party wants Scotland's independence, but has missed an absolute majority. What's next? And what is Boris Johnson up to? Political scientist Nicolai von Ondarza provides answers.


Read the video transcript here

The regional election in Scotland is over.

Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish National Party clearly won the election - but missed an absolute majority.

What this means for the question of Scottish independence from the United Kingdom, there are now two stories.

Sturgeon claims, together with the Greens, to have a majority in parliament for independence.

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister Scotland:

»So a referendum can in no way be called my request or the request of the SNP.

It is a promise to the people - by a clear majority of the MPs who have been elected to the national parliament.

It is the will of the people. "


On the other hand is Boris Johnson.

He doesn't want to go down in history as the British Prime Minister under whom the kingdom falls apart.

The tones from London: The SNP just missed an absolute majority, unlike before the first referendum in 2014.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

“These two stories are now colliding and I really expect that there will be a longer fight over whether there can be a second referendum.

That won't happen immediately, but rather something that happens in 2022, 23 or later. "


The SNP has won 64 seats, one is missing for the sole majority.

With the eight seats of the Greens it is enough.

Even so, the Scottish road to independence is complicated.

The Edinburgh government has to pass an independence referendum law.

And then the Supreme Court decides whether or not it needs approval from London for the implementation.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

“The big legal battle is about the interpretation of the so-called Scotland Act, which determines what powers the Scottish Parliament has.

And one competence that does not have is to make decisions that determine the Union of the United Kingdom and between the kingdoms of England and Scotland. "


Johnson's biggest argument is the referendum of 2014. He has long been of the opinion that the question has long been resolved.

Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister:

»We had a referendum in 2014.

It was crucial.

It was - I think everyone agrees - something that happens once a generation. "


An opportunity that exists once per generation - that was also the opinion of the SNP seven years ago.

And at that time the country decided against independence with 55.3 percent no votes.

But: a lot has happened since then.

Scotland had voted against the British exit from the EU with 62 percent - and now had to accept the hard Brexit.

That, so the independence advocates, changes everything.

And it complicates things for Johnson.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

"Because many arguments against Scottish independence were of course also arguments against Brexit."


Johnson is now playing for time.

He has underpinned his own power.

There were also elections in England - with great success for the Conservatives.

Pending a possible court decision, Johnson will now do everything possible to convince the Scots to remain part of the UK.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

»Above all with the vaccination campaign.

But we can also assume that in the future a lot of money will be sent to Scotland to show it is worth staying in the UK. "


It is entirely possible that he will succeed with it.

Because the mood is not as clear as Sturgeon wants to portray it.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

»There are also enough studies that there are also some SNP voters who support the party as a left party, who make social politics, but are not 100 percent convinced themselves whether they want independence . "


In the end, it will also be crucial

when

a possible v-v referendum would take place.

Because the polls fluctuate.

At the beginning of the year there was strong support for independence - also because of the poor handling of the pandemic.

Since the vaccination success, the mood has turned, now the opponents of independence are slightly ahead.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

“It depends on the exact moment and the exact political circumstances when the referendum will actually take place.

And that's why both sides will consider very carefully: When is the best time for me, when can I call the referendum and how can I then get the Scottish people involved for me? "


It is unlikely that Sturgeon will win legally and advance the referendum without Lohdon.

And so in the end the decision could be with Johnson anyway.

Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that this will allow a referendum.

In the hope that the advocates of independence will fail again - and thus in the long term.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

»If you lose that again.

Then one can assume that this question should really be answered for several decades. "


And how is the European Union dealing with the dispute?

She now has to decide whether she wants to see the debate as a purely domestic affair, as in 2014, or whether she wants to send positive signals to EU supporters in Scotland.

And that decision is a complicated one.

Nicolai von Ondarza, Science and Politics Foundation:

“Because London would see it as a hostile act if the EU were to approach the Scottish supporters of independence in a very, very positive way.

Because from a London perspective that would really be an attempt to tear the United Kingdom apart. "


Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2021-05-11

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