The reinforcement of the Scottish independence vote announces a confrontation between Edinburgh and London

The laborious counting of the votes in the Scottish autonomous elections - with a double system of distribution by constituency and by party list - has kept the Scottish National Party (SNP, in its acronym in English) in suspense throughout this Saturday. Although it has touched it, the last minute data ruled that the nationalist candidate, Nicola Sturgeon, would not reach, by just one seat, the desired absolute majority. His victory is still overwhelming, and the rise of the Greens guarantees ample support for the holding of a new independence referendum in the new term. Despite the pandemic, the high turnout in the elections has shown that the Scots remain divided and immersed in a deep constitutional debate. Boris Johnson has warned again that he will not endorse another consultation.London and Edinburgh are heading towards political confrontation. Sturgeon, in officially proclaiming the victory of his party, has been clear in his challenge: “The people have given the majority to the parties that favor independence. It is the will of the country. If the conservatives try to block that will, they will have the SNP in front of them ”.

The Scots elect by majority system the candidate of their constituency. The one who receives the most votes takes the seat. There are 56 constituencies. To provide the Autonomous Assembly with greater proportionality, a party list is voted on a second ballot. From there another 76 seats come out, to make a total of 129. For this reason, in an election deeply marked by the debate on a new independence consultation, the so-called “tactical vote” has been registered. Voters who want to remain in the UK alternated their two votes, depending on who they saw the best chance of winning, between Conservatives and Labor. Still, the SNP's strength has proven to be overwhelming, but it has not been enough to break the bar. Late in the afternoon on Saturdaythe tally finally gave the Nationalists one more seat for the South Scotland electoral region, reaching 64 seats, one less than the magic number of an absolute majority. The Conservative Party has managed to consolidate the second position (31 seats), and Labor, for decades hegemonic in Scotland, continues its slow decline with a third place (22 MPs).

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• Scotland decides if it wants a new independence referendum

The confrontation between London and Edinburgh, in any case, is served. Sturgeon and his team feel strong and legitimized to move forward with the commitment of a new referendum during the term that is opening, once the pandemic is under control. Together with the Greens, who have achieved eight deputies, they add a clear majority in favor of independence. The number two of the formation, John Swinney, anticipated the purpose of the SNP to promote in the Autonomous Parliament, after the summer, a law that activates the preparations for the consultation. And it challenged the Johnson administration to fight it in court. "I am very clear about two things: the SNP has been the winning party in these elections, and there will be a majority of deputies in the Assembly committed to holding an independence referendum that determines the future of Scotland",Swinney claimed. In 2011, when the charismatic Alex Salmond was at the head of the party, the Nationalists achieved an absolute majority of 69 deputies. It was strong enough to be construed as a clear mandate. The British government of conservative David Cameron gave in to pressure, and in 2014 an independence referendum was held in which the

he failed

to win by 55% of the votes compared to 45% of the

yes.

The current prime minister is one of the most unpopular characters among the Scottish electorate, and his greatest political achievement, Brexit, has been the main cause to which the independentistas have clung to promote a new consultation.

The overriding argument that Tories and Labor made in 2014, when they joined forces under the slogan

Better Together

, was precisely that a Scotland outside the UK would also be outside the EU.

Two years later, while an overwhelming majority of Scots voted against Brexit (62%), the rest of the country supported leaving the community club and dragged them with them.

Johnson continues to savor the Conservatives' victory in England's municipal elections, which also took place on Thursday. The results have been a boost to a prime minister who has lived very low hours during the pandemic. Not only that, but the dominance of the

Tories

In the traditional strongholds of the left, the so-called "red wall" in the English north, has plunged Labor into a deep internal crisis, and questioned its new leader, Keir Starmer. The Downing Street celebration will end with the weekend, because a new political storm is already brewing from Scotland. “I think that a referendum in the current context is irresponsible and reckless. This is not the time to have a constitutional dispute, or to talk about how to fragment the country, when what people want is to heal our economy and for us to recover together, "said the prime minister in the town of Hartlepool ― headquarters. of the most humiliating victory over Labor - in a defensive attempt to settle a debate that will be inevitable in the coming months.

Sturgeon, much more temperate than the most extreme wing of her party, but just as convinced that Scottish independence will come sooner or later, will be able to measure her time and avoid emergencies.

His main threat in Parliament came from Alba, the party recently created by his former mentor and leader of the independence movement, Alex Salmond.

He stirred the waters during the campaign, demanding that the voters support his formation in the second vote, the proportional one.

According to his calculations, it could be done with up to 30 deputies who put pressure on the SNP and accelerate secessionist movements.

Voters have turned their backs on him, with a backing of just 2% not even guaranteeing that Salmond himself will sit in the Assembly.

The key role of the Greens and the decline of Labor

The Green Party is on the way to adding up to three more deputies and achieving a parliamentary group of nine seats. Such a modest figure, however, may be of key importance in the new Scottish legislature. The Greens have incorporated into their main message, the fight against climate change - an objective that, with greater or lesser intensity, has already been appropriated by all the formations - a content of social justice that is attractive to the electorate. In the double voting system that Scotland uses for its autonomous elections, many supporters of the SNP have chosen to use their second ballot to ensure a strong presence of the Greens in the Assembly.

The key to this support, however, has a much more precise objective: although the support for independence within the formation is not unanimous, it is the will to promote at all costs a new consultation so that the Scots are the ones who decide your future.

That clarity is what Labor has lacked and continues to lack, for decades the owners of hegemonic political dominance in Scotland and today, as seen in these elections, relegated to a humiliating third position behind the Conservative Party.

The

tories

they have appropriated the unionist discourse and have established themselves as the main opposition to the independence movement of the SNP. Labor chose Anas Sarwar, a Scottish son of Pakistanis with a media charisma that has allowed him in just 10 weeks to win the sympathy of many Scots. But that sympathy did not translate into votes last Thursday. In elections based fundamentally on the dichotomy of independence or union, the lack of clarity of the party's message has come at a high price.