05/13/2021 11:06 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 05/13/2021 11:06 PM
Alberto Fernández
will ask
the head of the IMF for
a political gesture
to support the Casa Rosada in the face of Cristina's attacks.
Martín Guzmán and Julie Kozack were negotiating this Thursday night a path: the issuance of a letter from the IMF, to
inform the Paris Club that negotiations
between Washington and Buenos Aires are continuing.
This communication called "comfort letter" would
allow
the agreement with the Paris Club
to be extended, without paying now
, for 180 days.
Also, Guzmán - according to
Clarín
confirmed
- shouted that he seeks to close a pre-agreement with the IMF.
Kristalina Georgieva does not want to accentuate the political crisis between Alberto and Cristina.
The head of the IMF will try to help and make gestures in that direction.
Those repeated declarations of goodwill ...
But
Clarín
confirmed that he
will demand an economic plan
from Argentina, in case Alberto wants to reach a serious agreement with the IMF.
The same Emmanuel Macron told him in private.
The "face to face" with Alberto was cordial, but Macron was deadly sincere.
First, he demanded an agreement with the IMF, to close with the Paris Club.
Macron -in addition- removed all responsibility from above: "The Paris Club agreements must be unanimously among all creditor countries and are
not decided by France
."
This financial instruction occurs because
in Economics they ignored elementary rules of the world of finance
: France alone does not decide on the Paris Club.
Guzmán -in parallel- was with Emmanuel Moulin.
Both drew up the "patch" to kick the maturities one semester.
The head of the French Treasury asked Guzmán
that Argentina obtain the letter from the IMF
that allows the Paris Club to extend the current agreement for a semester.
That would be the concession they are looking for this Friday from Kristalina.
Georgieva does not want to carry the dead man from Argentina.
But consider that the economy has
very strong imbalances that may slide into the spring.
Pope Francis received Alberto Fernández on Thursday.
The meeting at the Vatican lasted 25 minutes.
Presidency photo.
For the IMF, the program must be comprehensive and stabilization.
This Thursday, the INDEC confirmed that inflation is not giving up.
Guzmán was projecting only above 3%.
Cristina's gurkas once again criticized Marco Lavagna: they wanted him to violate statistical secrecy and they question him that he
did not warn of 4.1%.
It also reflects the failure of Paula Español's bolt-on policy.
Since their controls began, inflation has not stopped rising.
And confirms the weakness to attack inflation with a single variable:
the backwardness of the dollar
-last month adjusted only 1.3% -
does not stop redialing
, and less for indexing.
Above, the YPF that leads La Cámpora does not help and will increase fuel again.
There is a rare progressivism in the oil company: the YPF board
celebrated its best balance due to the rates and a salary agreement below inflation.
Now, the Government will implement the
"Autumn Plan" to curb prices
.
Axel Kicillof's idea is the following:
freeze everything for 180 days
, until after the elections.
At the UIA, the idea is related to Raúl Alfonsín's “Spring Plan”.
He took it out of the hat to reach the presidential elections, but it
ended badly.
Daniel Funes de Rioja as the new president will have to live with the “Autumn Plan”.
The agreement in the UIA allowed Miguel Acevedo to maintain his influence: he will be vice president and he placed Miguel Rodríguez - who was competing with Funes - as secretary of the entity.
Acevedo-Rodríguez want a low-profile, zero-confrontational UIA.
Funes
leads a more combative group
.
Georgieva will also give Guzmán a boost.
The IMF recognizes him as a
reliable negotiator
.
Martín Guzmán met in March with the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, in Washington.
Now they will continue the negotiation for the debt in Rome, with Alberto Fernández present.
A support in the middle of the fight with the “troika” of Cristina, Axel and Máximo.
It could be the “hug of the Bear”.
Cristina set a deadline for herself: not to make waves until the elections and then advance on the Palacio de Hacienda.
The fight with Guzmán is not only due to the fight over rates.
There is another a secret question.
The "troika"
does not admit that Guzmán dreams of his political projection
and strutted for his good image.
The minister communicated his future plans to several businessmen.
He already ran to the left to La Cámpora: he said that the Cristina-Máximo duo defends “pro-rich” subsidies.
The friction was accelerated by the recklessness that Sergio Chodos had in a meeting with financiers.
At that meeting, the Argentine delegate at the IMF affirmed that Guzmán "measured well" and assured that he would have political projection in the Frente de Todos.
Chodos insisted: "Guzmán is the minister with the best image in the cabinet."
And he finished: "His projection is a good synthesis between Axel and Máximo."
This irritated those named.
This is how they translated it: that Guzmán
wants to dispute spaces of power with Cristina's favorites
.
The question was in the genesis of the disavowal to remove Federico Basualdo, the sociologist who is La Cámpora's expert on energy.
Pope Francis came to Guzmán's rescue.
Also from Alberto himself.
The Pope put a life preserver on the President.
With that objective
he received it at the worst moment of his mandate
.
He had already acted like this with Cristina, in the last section as President.
Francisco put a political pulmotor to him so that he finishes the mandate in the middle of the inflation and denunciations of corruption.
This Friday night Alberto returns to Buenos Aires. But there is a question: will they continue with the patches or will they try a program to slow the deterioration?