Israel-Palestine: "It is imperative that a credible peace process be put back on track"

Frédéric Encel holds a doctorate in geopolitics and lecturer at Sciences Po. He has notably published the

Geopolitical Atlas of Israel

FIGAROVOX.

- For the past week, Israeli strikes on Gaza have left 119 people dead, and 7 people have been killed by Hamas fire on Israeli towns.

How do you explain this new escalation of violence?

Frédéric ENCEL.

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The first reason is the very classic desire of Hamas to instrumentalize the popular exasperation of a certain number of Palestinians, in particular by playing on the sensitive fiber of Jerusalem. As much the anger of the Palestinian street is understandable and legitimate in the face of the total lack of political perspective - the last peace process dates back to the year 2000! -, as much the policy of the worst that has always led this radical Islamist group - having driven the Palestinian Authority from the Gaza Strip in 2007 by a putsch - is reprehensible. I recall that Hamas did everything to destroy the authentic Oslo peace process in the 1990s with its attacks, and that it is seeking to kill not only Israeli civilians but the Palestinian Authority. On the Israeli side,the political crisis which has become a real institutional crisis as well as the anti-Arab and extremist racist drift encouraged on the far right by an outgoing Prime Minister who is now demonetized, has also largely contributed to the outbreak of the current crisis.

While violent clashes between Jews and Arabs also took place in Jerusalem and in various mixed cities of the country, leaving hundreds injured, is an escalation of tensions between civilians to be feared?

I will be extremely clear: if there were to worsen and multiply inter-communal violence in Israel itself, the nature of the conflict would change and we would move to a dimension much more serious than a "simple" umpteenth military conflict between Israel and Hamas. . There, it is the democratic and national foundations of the State of Israel that would be in question, with potentially catastrophic prospects. I do not believe that we will go to such extremes because since the creation of Israel in 1948, and despite real social and political problems between Jews and Arabs, globally, civil peace has almost always reigned in Israel; In view of the sometimes cataclysmic violence that has hit the whole region in recent decades, this is a feat!

The great chanceries have relegated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the rank of mere litigation.

From this point of view, I therefore think that there is nothing better to wait for the next few weeks than a new ceasefire while unfortunately waiting for a next jolt of violence.

Frédéric Encel

Many heads of state have called for appeasement and the UN Security Council met on Monday to address the situation in East Jerusalem.

Is the international community likely to stop this cycle of violence?

I think the only credible diplomatic impetus will once again come from Washington, whatever some observers may have claimed in recent years, the United States is not withdrawing from the Middle East, it is only "pivoting" towards the Indo-Pacific. . But in the Middle East, it is by far the only power likely to obtain at least a ceasefire, if not to settle the conflict. The problem is that this is not a priority for Joe Biden, especially in the face of the great challenges concerning China, Russia, or even Iranian nuclear power. I have been saying and writing for many years that the great chancelleries - and even the Arab world, as we saw during the recent Abrahamic accords - have relegated the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the rank of mere litigation. From this point of view, I therefore think that he does notThere is nothing better to wait for the next few weeks than a new ceasefire while unfortunately waiting for a next jolt of violence. It is imperative that a serious and credible peace process be put back on track because it is in the political and diplomatic vacuum that the extremists are systematically rushing.