Eduardo Paladini
05/14/2021 8:31 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 05/14/2021 8:31 AM
Who will head the list of national deputies of the
Frente de Todos
in the province of Buenos Aires is perhaps the most important electoral unknown for
this year's legislative elections
. At least
three reasons
converge
: it is the highest place (1), in the majority political space (2) and in the main district of the country (3). For this reason, just four months before PASO, the revolving of names and numbers began.
Clarín
accessed a survey on Friday that measured
three potential candidates
. Two national ministers and one from Buenos Aires.
Sergio Berni
vs.
Santiago Cafiero
vs.
Daniel Arroyo
.
The study that evaluated them is from
CB Consultora Opinion Pública
, a firm with origins in Córdoba that conducts surveys throughout the country.
Between May 11 and 13, he conducted a survey of
1,559 cases
in the Province.
The results were presented with a +/- 2.5% margin of error.
The Minister of Social Development, Daniel Arroyo, and the Chief of Cabinet, Santiago Cafiero, during a meeting at La Rosada.
Within the framework of this work, the firm evaluated
the image and voting potential -
floors and ceilings - of the three government officials.
"We chose them because they are three of the names that sound for that space and they appeared in the media," they summarized in the consultancy.
They are not the only ones: two campers are also mentioned: the head of ANSeS,
Fernanda Raverta
, and that of PAMI,
Luana Volnovich
.
"Everything you hear now is 'falopa'. The definition will be close to the date and it will be done by whoever leads our space: Cristina,"
a high-ranking source of Buenos Aires Kirchnerism
assured
Clarín
.
"I think that they measured Raverta and Luana and they did not give well. That is why it is likely that they measure others. But
no minister today is going to tell you that he wants to be a
candidate because they turn him over," added another source from the national government.
Image and votes of Berni
The Buenos Aires Minister of Security was one of the first to ring.
He is not lacking in ambitions: after flirting in previous elections with a candidacy for governor, a month ago Berni confessed that he would like to be "president."
In any case, it
needs to be validated at the polls
.
Until now, his nominations were for provincial legislator and glued to other top box office names.
Fought privately and in public with his national counterpart, Sabina Frederic, at one point it was thought that a candidacy could be a dignified departure from his current position.
The version comes and goes.
What seems certain is that
his fate will be decided between him and Cristina Kirchner
, his only political boss.
The minister is
the one who measures the best of the three government officials
evaluated in Province by
CB
.
In image and in potentiality of votes.
They have a high level of knowledge and almost the same positive assessment (44.9%) as negative (47.5%).
In addition, it combines
21.9% of the
electoral
floor
(the percentage that answered that "they would surely vote for it") and
43% of the ceiling
(there is also a 21.1% that "could vote for it").
His rejection is 47.4% ("I would not vote for it").
Image and votes of Cafiero
The head of the Cabinet, with a political base in the San Isidro party, is another one that some imagine with
a candidacy that will officiate a worthy exit
from the Government.
They are the ones who place him among the "officials who do not work."
In the midst of these attacks, there was talk of a replacement by Sergio Massa, never finalized.
And in these days,
Cafiero was once again plagued
by the
"Federico Basualdo affair"
, the Cristinista Undersecretary of Energy that the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán wanted to dismiss and could not.
All versions agree that Cafiero had given Guzmán the OK.
What Clarín can confirm, in addition, is that
the Chief of Staff
, in turn,
had the green light from Alberto Fernández to move forward
.
But Cristina got angry and there was a reversal for everyone.
The topic was talk in recent days in the chat of officials.
But beyond the internal ones,
what are Cafiero's numbers like?
They leave him one step below Berni.
It has 37.7% positive image and 51% negative.
Plus
19.2% of the
electoral
floor
("I would surely vote for it") and
35.6% of the ceiling
(16.4% of "I could vote for it" are added).
The rejection reaches 52.1% ("I would not vote for it").
Arroyo's image and votes
The Minister of Social Development
suffers from his own intern
, but more than from the Instituto Patria the missiles come to him from the social movements.
They are implosions, in reality, since several officials in his portfolio belong to piqueteros groups such as Evita, Barrios de Pie and the CTEP of Juan Grabois.
With an ultra conciliatory style, Arroyo
had to raise his profile
and has an impact throughout the country due to the increase in social plans that the pandemic implied and implies.
From the start, he appeared as one of the ministers with the best evaluation, within a Cabinet of (almost) strangers.
The scandal with the overpricing of food that Development bought plus the wear and tear of the management made it go down a bit.
The figures
CB
shows
about his figure are not so bad.
With
a fact that can be a burden or an opportunity
: it is by far the least known of the three.
Arroyo is the
only one that ends up with more positive image
(34.7%) than negative (33.6%), but with a "I don't know him" also high (31.8%).
Regarding the potentiality of the vote, it combines a
floor of 15.9%
("I would surely vote it") with a
ceiling of 33.1%
(it adds 17.2% of "I could vote it").
The rejection is the lowest (42.5% "would not vote") and here again the ignorance affects, which translates into 24.3% undecided.
The
staggering of these three leaders is later confirmed with another question posed
by the survey.
"PASO Elections in PBA / If these were the lists in the front of the Frente de Todos. Which of them would you vote for?":
Berni leads with 21.6%, Cafiero follows with 15% and Arroyo closes with 9.3%
.
They complete: "other" 13.8%, "white / challenged" 25.2% "and" undecided "15.2%.
The weight of the seal and the bid with Together for Change
In addition to panning by candidate,
CB
investigated the potential of the seal's vote: "Regardless of which space you plan to support in this year's legislative elections,
how likely is it that you support the Frente de Todos?
"
There the
floor rose to 31.6%
("very probable") and the
ceiling was 41.6%
(10% of "somewhat probable" was added).
The rejection, meanwhile, reached 47.4% ("not likely").
Conclusion:
the weight of the Frente de Todos brand is stronger
than the names.
Only Berni manages to surpass it in the ceiling (43% to 41.6%).
That
hard and powerful base of the ruling party
in the province of Buenos Aires is repeated when the consulting firm investigates the intention to vote by space.
"We know there is still a long way to go, but if the legislative elections were tomorrow,
what force would you vote for?
"
The result:
1) Candidates from the
Front of All
: 30.7%.
2) Candidates for
Together for Change
: 23.5%.
3) Candidates from
another force
: 13%.
4) I still
don't know
: 32.8%.
