Seeing far for France while saving its social model means "having more children" and "welcoming people from other countries".
The High Commissioner for Planning François Bayrou pleads this Sunday, in the JDD and in a note sent to AFP, for a “national pact for demography” which will resolve this equation.
“France undoubtedly needs even more than its neighbors a dynamic demography because its social model relies, for many, on solidarity between the generations”, in particular through the system of financing by distribution of pensions and, beyond , social action and all public services;
“Demography becomes the very key to the sustainability and generosity of the social contract,” writes François Bayrou.
However, since 2010, the fertility rate has stagnated: from 2.02 children per woman, it rose to 1.83.
"It would miss 40,000 to 50,000 births per year to ensure the renewal of generations", we read in the note from the High Commission.
Especially if a pandemic breaks the birth curve (-7% in December 2020 compared to December 2019, -13% in January 2021 compared to January 2020).
"Playing with both levers"
"Ensuring our demographic future" goes through "two ways: having more children or welcoming people from other countries", writes the former minister, for whom "France will have to use two levers in reasonable proportions which guarantee the maintaining national cohesion ”.
At a time when the French believe that the Republicans have rallied the ideas of the National Gathering on the migratory issue, Bayrou opens a debate undermined, particularly with the electoral period which begins.
Increasing the migratory flow is "not an obvious solution", recognizes the centrist, "firstly because the impact on demography is not immediate and secondly because it presents social and cultural difficulties".
In 2019, 6.7 million immigrants live in France, or 9.9% of the total population, of which 37% (2.5 million) have acquired French nationality.
Support mothers
"Contrary to a received or conveyed idea, immigration is not the cause of our relative demographic dynamics", writes the High Commissioner, who relies on the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) to note that " three quarters of population growth is due to the natural balance ”, ie the total number of births less deaths.
"The contribution of migration can help improve the ratio of active-retirees, and therefore the financing capacity of our social systems," adds François Bayrou, who insists: "We must accept that it plays its part, but that this will only be accepted if at the same time the conditions are met to maintain a demographic ambition in our country ”.
"We need a family policy that allows people to have the number of children they want," says François Bayrou, recalling that "the decline in the birth rate in France has been concomitant with tax measures affecting in particular the family quotient" . But making people want to have the children we dream of having also involves better childcare, a housing policy and "support for mothers so that their careers are not affected by the fact that they are have children, ”he insists.
