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FDP and federal election: Lindner's limited scope

2021-05-17T21:49:16.114Z


Since Corona, the FDP has been experiencing soaring, and at its party congress it has now adopted an ambitious election program. Christian Lindner wants to co-rule from September - and still limits his coalition chances.


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FDP leader Christian Lindner at the digital party conference in Berlin: No tax increases as election promises

Photo: FILIP SINGER / POOL / EPA

Things are going pretty well for Christian Lindner right now.

The polls are correct, the re-election as party leader was concluded with the best result to date, and the election manifesto was adopted.

And in three weeks, the FDP will return to Saxony-Anhalt after ten years of parliamentary absence.

That would be a nice addition for the liberals on the final spurt into a federal election campaign, the outcome of which is as open as it has been for a long time.

If the polls continue to develop like this, especially for the Union and the SPD, this federal election could bring Dutch conditions to the republic for the first time and possibly increase the need for multi-party coalitions.

Lindner has renewed his goal at the three-day digital federal party conference: He wants to participate in government.

Unlike in 2017, when he rejected Jamaica, the FDP boss leaves the option of helping to shape it open.

In doing so, he is shaping the FDP back to what it was for many of its voters for decades: a functional party.

But will it come to that?

Last but not least, that also depends on whether the FDP is needed at all.

If there is enough black-green or green-black, this is likely to be the most likely constellation in autumn.

In the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, the CDU / CSU were less program-makers than power parties.

The most recent example in Baden-Württemberg, where a weakened CDU continues to rule alongside the strengthened Greens, is an example of this self-image.

As cynical as it may sound, it was the corona pandemic that gave the FDP a powerful boost.

At the moment the FDP comes up to twelve percent in surveys. That was not the case for a long time. For almost half of the legislative period, she bobbed around in the opposition role, stayed just above the five percent hurdle, and lacked topics and catchy messages. There were also slip-ups: the short-term prime minister election of Thomas Kemmerich with the help of the AfD right wing in Thuringia cost credit.

As cynical as it may sound, it was the corona pandemic that gave the FDP a powerful boost. The crisis not only pushed the Lindner Party's classic themes - better education, more digitization, protection of freedoms - to the fore. It also made it tangible for citizens, because Corona revealed some things that are not going well in a country that functions in itself. Lindner was also smart enough to focus the FDP's criticism on individual measures in the corona pandemic and not to overdo it across the board. His course remains a fine line. How it does not work in a pandemic time shows the politics of irresponsibility of an AfD.

Lindner took a risk during the Corona period. It is quite possible that this will be honored by some of the voters on September 26th and that the FDP will get one of its best results, after the peak in 2009 with 14.6 percent. At that time, however, luck only lasted one election night: The FDP acted out of time with the promise of tax cuts in the middle of the financial crisis, was thwarted by Chancellor Angela Merkel and the then Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble in the black-yellow coalition and paid the four years later Loss of trust in one's own clientele with expulsion from the Bundestag.

It was also Lindner's hour of birth as party leader, he rebuilt the party after 2013 and brought it back to the Bundestag four years later. His subsequent no to the Jamaica coalition was a burden for a long time and even if the memories of it fade, they could become highly topical again in September: If the FDP is needed, be it for a new Jamaica coalition or a traffic light. Then Lindner's party will have to decide how much the promises were worth now and how much political responsibility it entails. The election manifesto shows that it has a right to participate.

At the party congress, however, Lindner significantly restricted his leeway - with the statement that with the FDP there would be no new burden for employees and companies.

The no to tax increases - he is aware of the "scope" of his statement - at least makes the gate to a traffic light with the SPD and the Greens smaller.

Both parties want to increase taxes, regardless of the corona crisis.

Conflicts are certain there.

Especially since the traffic light in Rhineland-Palatinate, at which the FDP even lost in the most recent state election, makes it difficult to advertise such an alliance in the federal government.

One can be curious

What remains?

Hoping for the FDP to be able to tame the Greens alongside Armin Laschet and the Union in a Jamaica coalition, for example by taking over the finance department.

With the NRW Prime Minister, who leads the only black-yellow coalition, there is at least - unlike Angela Merkel - a basis of trust.

And should black-green or green-black rule?

This constellation harbors risks for both sides, especially for Laschet.

For the FDP, it might not be a worse option, in the long term.

Because a Union suffering from the Greens could bring new (bourgeois) voters to the liberals.

Whatever comes, the game will be open until September 26th.

Not a bad starting position for the FDP.

After that, however, things could get serious - and Lindner will have difficult decisions to make.

One can be curious.

Source: spiegel

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