Eduardo Paladini
05/16/2021 10:39 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 05/16/2021 10:48 AM
A new national poll to which
Clarín
agreed
this Sunday opens a central question:
has the fall in the numbers of the ruling party stopped?
And more: can there be a change in the trend in the
approval of the Government
, the
image of
Alberto Fernández
and the
intention to vote
of the Frente de Todos for the 2021 elections after many months of decline?
The study that generates these questions is from
Real Time Data (RTD)
, a consulting firm created in 2019, which makes daily update measurements and has clients in the country and abroad.
It publishes a monthly monitor of political, economic and social variables, entitled
"The state of public opinion in Argentina"
and allows you to follow the evolution of these points.
Between May 3 and 9, it made its last survey, of
913 cases
, with a margin of error of +/- 4%.
And as in his previous polls, the firm led by political scientist
Nicolás Solari
starts with a
decalogue of conclusions
that works with a current photo.
The current situation, in 10 tips
1) "The measurement for May registered a
recovery of five points in the presidential approval
. It is one of the few positive variations recorded by the Fernández administration, characterized by the persistence of the economic and health crisis."
2) "The recovery seems to be due to a re-
columnization of the sectors with greater ideological affinity
, essentially voters of the Frente de Todos and the Frente de Izquierda, on the occasion of the resurgence of the wave of contagions by Covid."
3) "The respondents demand from President Fernández two central questions:
greater firmness to govern and greater autonomy for Cristina Kirchner
. With less intensity, he is also being asked to straighten the economy and govern for all."
National Real Time Data Survey: How the Presidential discharge evolved.
4) "Minister
Martín Guzmán is one of the members of the national cabinet with the best public image.
The head of the Treasury Palace has a positive image of 51% and surpasses the Chief of Staff and other highly visible ministers."
5) "Despite this, the economy continues to be the main problem that affects Argentines personally. Furthermore, the
prospects for economic recovery remain very depressed
."
6) "The majority of the population
supports the limitation of nighttime and recreational activities
to face the Covid, but
opposes the suspension of
face-to-face
classes and commercial activity
."
7) "Despite the continuity of the economic and health crisis, Argentines continue to show a
broad commitment to the democratic regime
, which transversely feeds all political forces."
National survey of Real Time Data: Alberto Fernández rebounded his image and rose again to second place in the table.
8) "In the ranking of best-evaluated leaders,
the President recovered several places and once again placed himself in second position
, only behind the head of the Buenos Aires government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta."
9) "With regard to the legislative elections, 52% of those interviewed stated that they would vote for the opposition alternatives while
38% indicated a vote for the ruling party
. When the consultation is made through political spaces, there is parity between the FDT and JXC ".
10) "Facing the
2023
presidential election
,
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Alberto Fernández
continue to be the best positioned leaders. In May, both strengthened their positions at the expense of Macri and Kirchner, who suffered setbacks."
The electoral rebound and an interesting floor
Within this scenario that shows an improvement in the numbers of the ruling party, perhaps the most attractive for the Government is the
rise of six points compared to April in the intention to vote
for the legislatures.
Although that number is
still far from the 48 that it obtained in the last presidential election
and does not even touch the peak of 40/41 in October and November 2020 that
RTD
registered
, it is a floor more than interesting considering the moment of double crisis that The Government lives -by the pandemic and the economy-, and in the midst of a fierce internal politics.
National survey of Real Time Data: how is the voting intention for the legislatures.
As
Clarín
already said
, intermediate legislative elections such as this year tend to be won with just that figure, close to 40 points.
Anyway, as the analysts warn,
it is still very preliminary data
and with a totally uncertain scenario of alliances and candidacies.
With a local extra: Argentine pollsters come from a general blunder in 2019.
RTD's
own survey
brings another parameter that puts the ruling party a little lower: 38% appear when the consultant asks if "they would vote for the government's candidates", but when it is directly investigated for space,
the Frente de Todos falls to 33% and a technical tie with Juntos por el Cambio (32%)
.
This parity is a little more similar to what other studies have shown.
