Walter Schmidt
05/16/2021 7:47 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 05/16/2021 7:47 PM
The European leader paused, looked at the Argentine president, and said: "In Argentina there are more than enough conditions of stability, economic possibilities and legal security so that it continues to be an attractive scenario for international investors." October 25, 2000. The press conference in Madrid was given by the Spanish José María Aznar, a strong man from Europe, and Fernando de la Rúa Minutes earlier, in private, Aznar had asked De la Rúa: -What do you want? that says?
The language of diplomacy is subtle, gestural. Politically correct is always said in public. Reality happens indoors. It was in private
that the real situation that Argentina is going through
was discussed during Alberto Fernández's tour of Portugal, Spain, France and Italy
.
French Emmanuel Macron, who is not Argentina's main creditor but Germany and Japan are, made it clear that any postponement in payment to the Paris Club is subject to a prior agreement with the IMF. That is why Alberto Fernández had to manage an emergency meeting with Kristalina Georgieva, the director of the Fund.
Will the Paris Club wait until after the Argentine elections for an agreement with the IMF and the payment of the debt, such as the terms that Cristina Kirchner intends?
Hard. Perhaps there is an intermediate solution, some endorsement of the IMF before the Club of Paris. But after the tour, nothing is confirmed yet. So
the outcome of the presidential trip is still a question mark.
Another question is
what will happen to the Minister of Economy Martín Guzmán
. While he was accompanying Fernández through Europe, things happened: Christianity in a project fixed the destination that the extra 4,350 million dollars that Argentina would receive from the IMF should have and disarmed the minister's idea of using them in part to pay debt; and Máximo Kirchner, together with Sergio Massa, presented a project to reduce gas rates by 40% –more subsidies- in fifty municipalities.
This decision did nothing but
consolidate the link between La Cámpora and Massa
.
Indeed, when asked if Guzmán was aware of the gas proposal, the Instituto Patria ignored that step:
"It is law, this is moving forward, it is sanctioned and that's it
.
"
And in the massismo they ironized about having spoken it before with the minister:
“Why?
It is closed with (Federico) Bernal, who is the highest authority in the area ”
.
Bernal responds directly to Cristina and, together with the Undersecretary of Energy, Federico Basualdo, are the
two officials who reject Guzmán's orders.
They are no longer differences.
The confrontation between the campers and the massistas with the albertista Guzmán has the electoral campaign in the background, of which nobody speaks in public but everyone works in it.
In the Casa Rosada they warn that, although they will not put it that way, the virtual candidate will be Alberto Fernández and they trust his skills in the campaign.
They are convinced that in the province of Buenos Aires they will be above 40 points and that it will be complemented with what they obtain in the northern and southern provinces.
However, the strategy changed, forced by the overflow of inflation.
Before,
the pillars
of the ruling party for the campaign
were vaccination and economic rebound.
Today, only the vaccination remained.
“Vaccination is going to compensate the economic.
Inflation is going to go down but not everything we need to go down ”,
admits a minister.
The interpretation they make, in electoral mode, is that the opposition insisted so much that Alberto Fernández was responsible for the vaccine that the President ended up appropriating the inoculation campaign.
“And also,
if there is a massive vaccination as we have planned in June and July, there will be many cases of vaccinated
and that will be very liberating because you create a climate in which the pandemic is being overcome. And that is very victorious for the government and consolidates the 40% insurance ”
, they rehearse in the Government.
"Obviously more vaccines reduces stress on the health system and would not increase restrictions. The economy is improving despite high inflation and a technical rebound is beginning to be reflected in the hands of a tailwind. However, the image of the Government continues to decline. In addition to the uncertainty that the pandemic implies, what is making a lot of noise is
a blurring of Alberto's leadership
and that will have an impact on this year's election, "
says Carlos Fara, political consultant.
Fara warns that this presidential wear becomes more important if the legislative election, as is to be expected,
"turns into a plebiscite"
of the Fernández administration.
In debates on strategy, some ruling party members believe that it is
a mistake to raise Horacio Rodríguez Larreta to the political fight
, who in most polls is the national leader with the best image.
"Although it was a dynamic of management of the pandemic and not a strategy, it serves for Larreta to show his cards before 2023 because in that way he suffers wear,"
reasons a national official.
In Balcarce 50 they also assure that this situation bothers the Buenos Aires Head of Government and has made him lose points because his position has hardened and moved away from the center.
Yes, the government admits that Alberto Fernández began to "lose" the center with the controversy over Vicentín, a kind of turning point in the link with that segment of the voters.
"If the pandemic had lasted three months, Alberto today measured 65 points, but what the center was eating us was the duration of the pandemic, it became very long," they
reason.
On the contrary, in the surroundings of Rodríguez Larreta they consider that the permanent offensive of Kirchnerism against the City has not harmed him but, on the contrary, favored him.
"They want to lower it but end up raising it. He is the leader with the best image in the province. It happens that they do not act with logic and govern badly," they
summarize.
In the headquarters of Uspallata they admit that Cristina Kirchner is the ideologist of the offensive of the Nation against the City, and that the camporista nucleus is the executor and makes decisions.
"But Alberto is here too. He got angry, he got hot
.
"
Before, in the first half of 2020, Larreta met with Fernández every two weeks to discuss the pandemic for two or three hours and the next day the joint press conference was held to report.
"In the last time they have not even had 10 conversations by chat"
, they maintain near the mayor of the City.
On the contrary, they do maintain permanent contact Fernán Quirós with Carla Vizzotti every other day and Felipe Miguel with Santiago Cafiero.
Everything indicates that on Wednesday, during the meeting called by Guzmán and Eduardo de Pedro with Buenos Aires officials, within the framework of the mediation of the Court,
there will be no agreement for the cut of funds from the Nation to the City
, estimated at about $ 65 billion. Then it will be time for a new meeting of the parties with the High Court on the 26th. After that, everything will be left in the hands of the Supreme Court to decide if the cut of funds is correct, or the Nation must partially restore them. or totally to the City.
And the merry-go-round will turn again. How will the Court rule? Who will benefit? And in the middle people; who is infected and dies from the Covid, who is witness to the fall in their purchasing power, who watches how they fight for the Attorney General's chair, who feels the actions of politicians far away.
And on top of that, you have to vote.