Ignacio Zuleta
05/16/2021 18:45
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 05/16/2021 20:02
Second intentions: turn the PASO and keep Peronism united
The biggest but hidden one of the plots that occupy the stage today,
Sergio Massa
leaked two pieces of information to the opposition: 1) we have the votes to approve the reform of the Attorney General's Office; 2) do not fear, when you learn about the reforms to the project you will see that
the "we are going for everything" is a "we are going for nothing."
This clean and jerk puts at risk
the agreement with the opposition to postpone the PASO
and reinforces the unity of Peronism. Two hidden purposes of the ruling party that are worth more in the conjuncture than a viscous success in the fight for future control of the prosecutors.
Sergio, who is not a champion of trust,
fired the run that puts
judicial reform above the plots
that until now occupied the scene - the jurisdiction fights to face the plague and the vaccination epic. Experience says that behind this type of fights it is necessary to discover the second and true intention of the protagonists. As long as the contrary is not proven: the ruling party is doomed, as its first objective, to
win the elections in the province of Buenos Aires.
For that he has to abulone the fragile unity of Peronism.
It is threatened by dissidents such as those of Fernando Gray
and a sociological Duhaldism that has already pushed Máximo Kirchner back in his attempt to seize the PJ before November.
He had to take office two weeks ago and has already sent word that he will not do so until November.
He fears a division.
The polls that were known this week on
the accessions to Florencio Randazzo, close to 10 points, are added.
This is enough to trigger panic at the possibility that, before July 27, the closing date of candidacies for the PASO, Peronism -another- will put on the field an alternative list that allows the flight of those votes that the government needs. In Front of All to win a difficult election.
A clean and jerk that lacks votes
To seize unity, nothing better than a nice political fight that runs through channels far from the daily chronicle. For example, the fight for Procuration - a debate for legal scholars, as incomprehensible to the general public as cryptocurrencies or the sexuality of angels, an enigma that could never be solved by the Church of Rome, which has declared it prescribed.
Massa's presumption that he has the votes collides with the count made by the baquianos.
An adjusted calculation affirms that
Peronism lacks votes to approve the project
of which they want to sign an opinion this Tuesday. The godmother of the situation is
Graciela Camaño,
host of the so-called "lavagnista" bloc. The deputy is one of the hinges in judicial matters in Congress (and in the Council of the Magistracy).
Camano has overturned key decisions that the Government has celebrated, but this time he is looking the other way.
He has said that he will neither give a quorum nor vote on the bill that comes from the Senate;
the reform would result in the displacement of the acting Attorney Eduardo Casal, and the appointment of the successor by simple majority of votes and for five years.
Nor will it give a quorum to start the session.
His block adds three deputies, and the interblock that integrates with other dissidents adds six more (four that respond to Juan Schiaretti, plus two from Santa Fe socialism).
Why then does Massa so firmly assure that they have the votes?
It will not be to honor his legend of failure.
But he manages to engage all of Peronism in a muscle-building exercise for unity.
Virtual vs.
remote
The subpoena for the deal on Tuesday mobilized the opposition. There were calls in all senses in an attempt to find out if it is true that the ruling party has the votes. Or if it is an entree with ulterior motives. The arc of consultation included party chiefs, governors who control key legislators in any vote.
Also to "influencers" of the main tribes such as Roberto Lavagna
(who appears little)
or Macri
(who reappears this Wednesday in Córdoba, to present the book).
The former minister promised to reject the project,
something that illuminates legislators who respond to him, even if he does not have party authority.
The opposition governors pledged to be this Sunday at the Together for Change summit this Sunday, after the Boca-River party.
Some party authority, such as Alfredo Cornejo, appeared in transit to Madrid, where he is part of the Argentine delegation of more than 40 officials to participate in the FITUR, a tourism fair, chaired by Minister Matías Lammens.
The virtual dialectic vs. remotes revives in these emergencies.
The plenary of commissions convened for Tuesday
to discuss the prosecutors' project
It has to be face-to-face because they can only be virtual if the vice-presidents of the committees authorize it. As those positions are from the opposition (Gustavo Menna and Luis Juez, Constitutional Affairs and Justice respectively) they force the application of the protocol and will be face-to-face debates. The opposition experts studied this weekend a presentation before Sergio Massa to apply the terms of a resolution of the Ministries of Health and Labor that authorizes employers to "summon workers to return to work in person and the workers who were exempt from attending in person, who have received at least the first dose of any of the vaccines against COVID-19, regardless of age and risk condition,14 days after inoculation "(Res 4/2021).
Is Massa the employer of the deputies? Or is the employer the Executive, which calls sessions of Congress?
The Chicana is to demand that he call face-to-face sessions that include those authorized by the protocol and those vaccinated.
It is difficult for the ruling party to easily resign itself to its vocation for remote and virtual politics.
In that format he controls the field, the whistle, the VAR, the microphone, the initiative, everything.
José Mayans, the divan of Christianity, justifies it in each session:
"they come here with proposals for regulation, when there are people who are dying.
Do not talk to us about democracy, nor do they want to come to give us lessons on democracy" (Thursday's marathon session , lasted more than 10 hours, a whole priesthood).
Hard-to-keep promises
For the ruling party, the slogan is simple and does not need explanations to call for support: it gives more power to Peronism.
For the opposition, this project is more dangerous than a reform of the constitution
. The reform of the attorney general puts in the hands of the ruling party the appointment of the chief prosecutor, with
powers that allow him to decide the fate of the cases.
They do not refer so much to those that can incriminate former officials for corruption cases, but to those that come in the future. The transition from the inquisitorial system to the accusatory system places the investigation of the cases in the hands of the prosecutors. It creates a new power for them, which is taken away from the judges.
Politicians will already regret having ventured into this reform that puts them in the hands of another corporation, much more difficult to control than that of the judges.
The justice minister has promised prosecutors
that the project will have reforms that improve the rigor of the prosecution system and give more powers to each prosecutor.
Martín Soria repeats that he has convinced them that this will happen.
Those who look at these movements in Soria with a magnifying glass believe that they
are promises that they will not be able to fulfill
because Christianity, the most judicially committed wing of the ruling party, will veto these reliefs, in their intention to handle justice in the future.
The "Negri clause" is in danger for the postponement of the STEP
Massa's commitment to this plot indicates that he has agreed to put this reform on his shoulder.
Strange in him because it alienates him from the moderate public that supports him.
It always prospered as an adversary of the guarantee of the Instituto Patria. His hour of glory was with a campaign in 2014 by the firms to overturn Cristina's criminal code project. This time he claimed to have collected two million signatures and set it back. He did it.
He may have forgotten about that feat. She does not. You ask around. "- Why does Sergio get into this one?" - "Because it has an agreement with them" - Cristina & CO. "- And are you going to meet them?" - "- And ... Sergio changed."
Another Sergio?
Wonders of human nature. Time will tell. What does justify this interest is the other underhanded intention of this fight, which is to blow up the agreement that the Government reached with the opposition to postpone the STEP. It was an exemplary embroidery of Pedro's Wado with JxC that the minister has promised to fulfill: "- I risk all my prestige on this," he confessed to the opposition negotiators. Is right. After tonight's pronouncement by the National Board of Together for Change,
that agreement may come to nothing.
It is doubtful that the ruling party has the votes for the judicial law, but it sure has them to approve, without the support of JxC, the postponement of the STEP.
This agreement with the opposition added the so-called "Negri clause",
a commitment that there will be no further changes this year
in the electoral dates.
If the opposition withdraws from the agreement
in retaliation for the advance on the Procurator
, the Negri clause of the project may fall and the possibility that, in the end, the Government will end up suspending the primaries for this year and that it will send everything to a law of slogans on Election Day.
In the end, the Court awaits them
Bingo for the ruling party, because they will have used this threat of the Procurator's law to commit all their tribes to unity for a symbolic rather than real battle, and thus improve their electoral competitiveness. Even in the event that it obtains the votes to approve the initiative,
the new law will have a scale in courts.
Would the Supreme Court accept this reform that takes away from the Attorney General the clothing that the Constitution gives him? There it says (art.- 120 °) that the Public Ministry is "an independent body with functional autonomy" (...) whose function is to promote the action of justice in defense of the legality of the general interests of society in coordination with the other authorities of the Republic. (...) Its members [the Attorney General and the General Defender] enjoy functional immunities and intangibility of remuneration ".
This article was regulated in 2008 by law of Congress, which understood that these powers were ensured through the form of appointment "with the agreement of the Senate by two-thirds of its members present."
It is not certain that this Court will consent in peace to a reform that makes the figure of the chief prosecutor, imposing a dependence on political power through a term appointment and with a simple majority of the senators.
But give a garpa fight in the pre-electoral juncture.
Rafecas continues alone and waits
This condition, for example, is
not accepted by Daniel Rafecas,
who was nominated by the current Government for the position. The document sleeps in the Senate and has never been dealt with.
Alberto Fernández has not spoken with Rafecas since that presentation.
Neither in the 14 months that have passed since the Senate was sent, has the judge made it known whether or not he will consider his appointment. A minimal courtesy so that, in any case, he would have a suit made. Not even when there are opposition leaders, such as Elisa Carrió and some senators, who have moved for the approval of that appointment.
Christianity has made it known that Rafecas is not its man.
But neither Alberto has withdrawn the statement.
If it did, it would be a political capitulation.
Rafecas has insisted in the last hours that if Congress modifies the law under which he was offered the position, he would be under an ethical obligation to resign the nomination.
It has not done so despite the fact that the ruling party has already approved a bill in the Senate to modify it and that it is now moving in Deputies.
A sector of the opposition promotes accentuating pressure on the Executive to highlight the contradiction of the ruling party on this nomination.
Ledge walkers
Soria has not promoted any option, to leave the door ajar to gain space for a decision that justifies his appointment to the position.
So far he has not contributed much, except statements. He is a minister of orality.
The margin he wins allows him to imagine even a scenario that includes Rafecas. For example, giving in to the demands of prosecutors to ease the controls on them provided for in the bill approved by the Senate.
This music sounds, soft, near Massa's offices in Diputados, and is repeated by those who believe that he may be playing a game of his own that is not Cristina's.
Massa was the main promoter of the appointment of Soria as Minister of Justice.
If he fails in the proxy war, the defeat will be paid by the minister - who does not come from Christianity - and Massa himself.
Sergio who likes risky plays.
A great cornice walker, he may be playing a quality leap in the pyramid of power, unlocking the crisis of the Procuratorate and keeping Soria and Rafecas, whom he knows the opposition supports.
Against Christianity, it is the squaring of the circle, but: 1) for these situations, there is politics; 2) sometime the odious relationship between the partners in the presidential trifecta has to break out, walking on thin ice due to the fragility of the pre-election scenario. In other words, it is the ideal time for these audacity.
