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Written by: Huang Shunyang
2021-05-17 19:47
Last update date: 2021-05-17 19:47
Under the epidemic, Hong Kong’s aging and declining birthrate problems have become more serious. It is expected to enter a "super-aging" society in 2034. By 2069, the elderly dependency ratio may increase to 2:1 or close to 1:1.
And to slow down the aging trend of Hong Kong's population, whether it is by increasing the working population or increasing the fertility rate, the government undoubtedly needs a comprehensive population policy.
However, why does the government "turn a blind eye" to encouraging fertility, a measure that can solve the problem of population ageing at the root?
Haven't introduced more interventional measures to alleviate the aging trend and the problem of declining birthrate?
Population ageing series 4 bis
"Stopping food due to choking" refused to promote the policy of encouraging childbirth
It is not difficult for us to see the clues in the written reply to Legislative Council Member Ge Peifan by Chief Secretary for Administration, Zhang Jianzong, on March 29, 2017.
Zhang Jianzong said that since these factors mainly involve personal choices and lifestyle choices, the Steering Committee believes that government policies alone cannot fundamentally reverse the trend of low fertility, and because childbirth is an important family decision, excessive government intervention may not be necessary. appropriate.
This undoubtedly attributed the problem to the citizens' personal choices and lifestyles, thinking that the government "didn't fundamentally reverse the trend of low fertility" and "caught up because of choking" and did not introduce policies to encourage birth.
Tong Yuying described the government’s stance on the policy of encouraging childbirth as “free”, “Basically rely on the family itself and give you full freedom. If you want to be born, you will get married if you want to get married. I will not guide you through policies. Get married or have children."
The "Population Policy-Strategies and Measures" report mentioned that Hong Kong's low fertility rate "mainly involves personal choices, choices in life style, etc." (Photo by Huang Baoying)
But in fact, the "personal choice" of low fertility has nothing to do with the social and economic environment that is not suitable for childbearing; and government policies affect the quality of the social and economic environment, which in turn affects the population’s stay or stay, as well as the citizens’ Willingness to get married and have children.
This just shows the government’s blind area of thinking. It uses “less intervention” immigration measures with an adaptive population policy to “repair and make up for” the population structure of Hong Kong; it uses “freedom” to circumvent the public interest and public interest generated by adjusting the population policy. Contradiction between market interests.
"As long as the economy can continue to develop, the government does not seem to pay much attention to the difficulties faced by people who need to get married or have children." Tong Yuying said helplessly.
It’s true that in the past, Hong Kong’s income was much higher than that of the Mainland. For Mainlanders, immigration to Hong Kong is indeed attractive. However, as wages in the Mainland continue to rise, various cities have adopted different preferential policies and living allowances to "grab people". , The attractiveness of Hong Kong declines.
According to information from the authorities, nearly 446,000 people have applied for "one-way permits" to come to Hong Kong in the past 10 years.
(Profile picture)
The crux of the problem is that even if Hong Kong is attractive enough to attract people from the Mainland or overseas, as a city with a very high cost of living, why can Hong Kong attract them to take root here, or even have children?
Perhaps in their eyes, Hong Kong is just a "springboard", and they will eventually choose to return to the Mainland or abroad to live.
Although there are no exact figures that reflect the willingness of the migrant population to stay in Hong Kong, the government’s statistics on “net in/net out of other Hong Kong residents” calculate the annual emigration figures of the permanent and migrant population, including expatriates and migrant workers. As for foreign students, only the two years of 2015 and 2018 have shown net inflows in recent years, and the rest have been net outgoings (see Table 1), which is enough to offset more than half of the number of one-way permits.
Perhaps the use of the migration data of permanent residents and floating populations to demonstrate the attractiveness of Hong Kong is somewhat general, but if we look at the relationship between net migration and birth numbers, we will find that even though the overall population of Hong Kong increases every year ( Except last year), but the number of local births has only slightly changed-in other words, even if Hong Kong can attract foreign populations, it is still difficult to get them rooted here, or even to set up families and have children here.
Chen Mengni said bluntly that if the government blindly pursues economic growth but ignores the quality of life of the residents, it will only "drive away" people. "If the quality of life of the people living here is not high and their lives are not happy, there will only be more people. I choose to leave Hong Kong and immigrate abroad.” From the above data, it is true that the relevant immigration policies cannot continue to alleviate the problem of labor shortage in Hong Kong.
In this way, the question will ultimately fall on whether Hong Kong is suitable for fertility.
Fake uncontrollable names ignore core issues
Hong Kong’s high housing prices, teaching and parenting costs inhibit individuals’ willingness to have children. According to the data, not only the fertility rate, but also the marriage rate have repeatedly reached new lows (see Table 2).
Chen Mengni analyzed that with social and economic development, cultural concepts such as "singleness is good" and "one person is good" will inhibit Hong Kong people's willingness to marry and have children.
But in addition to conceptual factors, the economic and time costs of parenting have contributed to the current low fertility rate.
"The current population structure of Hong Kong with a large number of boys and girls makes it difficult for many Hong Kong women to find a matching spouse, but even if they find it, can they really become lovers or couples? It depends on whether they have time to fall in love. "
According to the 2018 "Price and Income" research report of UBS, Hong Kong employees work an average of 52 hours a week, that is, an average of 2,172 hours a year, ranking first among 77 cities in the world.
But unfortunately, the government promised to study and regulate the maximum working hours since the 2010-2011 Policy Address. Ten years have passed, and the standard working hours have not yet been seen.
Although the labor, capital, and government set up the Standard Working Hours Committee in 2013, they failed to reach a consensus for a long time. Labor representatives even withdrew from the committee in 2016.
In the same year, the committee submitted the "Standard Working Hours Policy Research Report" to the government in the absence of labor representatives, recommending that the government use "contract working hours" to regulate working hours, but the plan only requires employers and employees to indicate the agreement between the two parties in the contract Compensation for working hours and overtime, including overtime wages or compensatory leave, that is, unreasonable long working hours are also "legal" as long as the employer and the employee agree with me.
At the same time, sayings such as "housing price is the best contraceptive" and "a child costs four million" are widely circulated in society, always reminding citizens of the heavy cost of having children.
Work is unstable, income is low, mental pressure is high, and there is not enough living space to accommodate newborn babies. Naturally, citizens are unwilling to marry or have children.
Chen Mengni believes that this factor can actually be avoided. "As long as young people have a better working environment, more stable jobs, and higher incomes, their expectations of their financial ability will increase, and their marriage and fertility rates will naturally increase. ."
Dr. Chen Mengni, a researcher at the University of Cologne in Germany and the University of Leuven in Belgium, believes that young people have a better working environment and more stable jobs, and marriage and fertility rates have naturally increased.
Under the pressure of economic costs, time and cultural concepts, the government has not only failed to actively introduce more interventional policies to encourage childbirth.
It also fails to provide sufficient child care and education services for professional women who are prospering in their careers or "dual-time families" who are busy with their lives, so as to remove obstacles for them, so that they dare to plan childbirth.
According to the Census and Statistics Department, the labor force participation rate of married middle-age women (25 to 54 years old) in Hong Kong in 2018 was 79.4%. If they have children between 0 and 14 years old, the labor force participation rate will drop to 56.6%. .
It can be seen that high-quality child care and education services can release more senior women to participate in labor.
Early childhood education services are incredible
However, Tong Yuying bluntly said, "The Hong Kong government has done very little to help families take care of children." Although the government launched the voucher scheme in 2007, it also introduced a free quality kindergarten education policy in the 2017/18 school year to support admission. Students in non-profit kindergartens, but did not subsidize the tuition fees of private kindergartens.
In addition, Hong Kong kindergartens are basically half-day. She bluntly said that this school system is not conducive to dual-time families who are busy with their livelihoods during the day, and it is not conducive to the learning of young children. "This is "unbelievable" in the eyes of other countries. What can you do for parents and children?"
Many dual-time fathers and mothers have to work overtime and may not be able to go home on time to cook home meals and accompany their children.
(Gettyimage/visual China)
As Tong Yuying said, according to the data in the Legislative Council document, there are 511 half-day kindergartens (schooling time is 3 to 3.5 hours) funded by the government in the 2018/19 school year, which can provide 103,157 places; in contrast, the government There are only 364 and 246 full-time (7.5 hours) and long-term (less than 10 hours) kindergartens under subsidy, with 26,291 and 23,865 places respectively.
The Director-General of the Hong Kong Society for the Protection of Children, So Suk-yin Tsai, pointed out that the current long-term full-time school places in Hong Kong are seriously insufficient, and the full-time school places are not enough to support dual-time families who generally work long hours; women should not switch to part-time jobs in order to balance family and livelihood , Or arrange for foreign domestic helpers or grandparents to take care of the children.
Compared with professional kindergarten teachers under the long full-time school system, foreign domestic helpers or grandparents may not be well-educated, nor may they know how to care for and educate children. She questioned, "Can they meet the stimulation that children need now?"
The Director-General of the Hong Kong Society for the Protection of Children, Cai Su Shuxian, pointed out that Hong Kong lacks long full-time school places to support dual-time families who generally work long hours.
There is a shortage of long-term full-time places. Semi- and full-time schools will suspend classes on holidays, school holidays, and bad weather. This prevents dual-time parents from arranging work hours. They often need to rush back to school with one phone call and travel back and forth between home and work.
Tong Yuying said frankly that the Bureau of Education announced holidays at all times, and did not consider the needs of dual parents at all. "I know many mothers, and when I hear about the holidays, there is a wailing on social media."
"The government basically relies on the family and the market to solve the problem of child care, thinking that as long as there is no safety accident, there will be nothing. As for all kinds of care difficulties, parents have to find ways to solve them by themselves." Tong Yuying said helplessly: "This will cause parents. A lot of frustration."
It is conceivable that under the current population policy and education system, especially the current economic and cultural environment, all the pressures are suppressing the family's willingness to bear children, as if it is normal to say that "no birth or no support" is normal.
Therefore, the government should not give up food because of choking. Rather than adopting "less intervention" measures in the name of "freedom", to avoid the contradiction between the public interest and market interest generated by adjusting the population policy, and to allow the population to continue to age, it should consider introducing it. A comprehensive and effective interventional and adaptive population policy to alleviate the problem of population aging and declining birthrate, and effectively increase the birth rate.
The above is excerpted from the 265th issue of "Hong Kong 01" Weekly Report (May 17, 2021) "The "less intervention" population policy "fewer births" will have endless troubles. If you want to read the full text, please
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