Hamas has fired on Israel from Gaza, over which it has exercised its authority since 2007, and the Israeli army retaliates with rare violence.
Since May 10, Palestinian armed groups, mainly those of Hamas but also Islamic Jihad, have launched around 3,000 rockets at Israel, beating the rate of fire during the 2014 escalation and the 2006 war against Hezbollah. Lebanese, IDF General Ori Gordin said during an online meeting with journalists on Sunday.
An unprecedented war, therefore, which shows an enlarged military capacity on the part of fighters of the Islamist group considered as terrorists by Western democracies. What agenda is the “Islamic Resistance Movement” really pursuing? Is it at the heart of a larger project of confrontation with Israel, supported by other actors in the region? Or is it taking advantage of a windfall effect? Decryption.
Hamas, which was initially overwhelmed by the protest movement of the Arab populations of the old city of Jerusalem, quickly seized the ball with the leap of this spontaneous popular uprising.
He was not, moreover, at the initiative of the first shots which were launched against Israel.
Since it is the radical group Jaich al-Umma (close to Al-Qaeda) which is responsible for the first salvo of three rockets that triggered hostilities.
Hamas followed suit a few hours later.
#Gaza Jaich al-Umma (close #AlQaeda) - which has been leading a campaign “arm a conquering combatant” since the start of Ramadan - responsible for the first salvo of 3 rockets launched yesterday against # Israel pic.twitter.com/pm4n6XSHPV
- Wassim Nasr (@SimNasr) May 10, 2021
"Hamas' agenda is fundamentally linked to the Palestinians and Israeli Arabs, and more particularly the Palestinian control zones located outside Gaza," analyzes Didier Billion, deputy director of IRIS and specialist in the Middle East.
Embody Palestinian unity at the expense of Fatah
“They've jumped on the bandwagon, and now they can't go back.
But the stake is less to face Israel in reality than to compete with Fatah on the Palestinian political ground.
The cancellation of the elections in the territories managed by the Palestinian Authority prevents Hamas from gaining a political foothold there, ”also explains Alain Rodier, research director at the French Intelligence Research Center.
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Clearly, Hamas has shifted its focus: its strategy of using missiles served as leverage in lifting the Gaza blockade so far.
From now on, these military actions want to be "the instruments of a national liberation struggle", analyzes Leïla Seurat, author of "Le Hamas et le monde" (CNRS editions, 2015.) in Le Monde.
Ismaïl Haniyeh, the head of the political office of Hamas, wishes to act as a guarantor of the unity of the Palestinians to the detriment of Mahmoud Abbas.
And for that nothing better than to move its fight towards Jerusalem for better old-fashioned Fatah, historical party, prey to the divisions and to the corruption.
It is therefore no coincidence that the operation against Israel was called "the sword of Jerusalem" by the head of the Al-Qassam brigades, Mohammed Deif.
Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau.
REUTERS / Hussein Sayed
If locally this armed conflict seems to have borne fruit and re-inflated Palestinian nationalist sentiment;
in the region, Hamas ultimately received little support in a conflict which would quickly find its limits.
“Ismail Haniyeh publicly stated that he was going to continue the war but at some point he will be forced to negotiate.
They will quickly run out of ammo at the rate they fire every day.
On the Israeli side, they too will run out of military targets within 15 days.
It will end with negotiations ", advances Alain Rodier, who also notes that" Netanyahu, takes the opportunity offered to him to gain time politically ".
Hezbollah does not intend to get directly involved in the conflict
The best proof of the lack of support for the Islamist movement that emerged from the Muslim Brotherhood is the non-involvement of Lebanese Hezbollah, if not in words.
As in 2014, during the last confrontation between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah does not intend to become directly involved in the conflict.
"There is a general consensus to avoid escalation," a close friend of the Lebanese Shiite party told L'Orient-Le Jour.
If Israel does not open the northern front, Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has no intention of doing so, as the situation in Lebanon and Syria is so overwhelming.
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However, the pro-Shiite party considers for the moment that the "Resistance Axis" is scoring points, since Hamas has been able to reach Tel Aviv, despite Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.
He could profit from it on the military ground during a coming conflict.
But what is this "axis of the Resistance"?
This geopolitical notion has been developed by the Iranians since the Mullahs came to power.
Its aim is to make the junction between political Shiism and the defense of Arab nationalism.
For this, the Persians currently support both the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and to a lesser extent the Islamists of Hamas in particular against the hereditary enemy that Israel represents.
Iran very discreet
“
The Axis of Resistance
is more rhetorical than reality. Conjecturally, the interests can coincide. This does not mean that there is real operational collaboration. There is no such thing as a military alliance. Major proclamations are political declarations but are not really effective, ”however tempers Didier Billion of IRIS.
Indeed Iran, usually so quick to attack Israel, has so far been very discreet.
“If Iran has made a few statements, they are classic but not particularly harsh.
The Iranians have every interest in focusing their energy on indirect negotiations with the United States.
Things are really happening in Vienna, and supporting Hamas could be detrimental to their interests at the moment, ”said the Middle East specialist, well informed on the ongoing negotiations concerning Iranian nuclear power.
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Hamas therefore finds itself quite alone. Palestinian resistance is no longer necessarily to the liking of Sunni regimes like Saudi Arabia, also in negotiations with Iran and wishing to avoid alienating Israel, with whom diplomatic or strategic links have been forged recently.
