Big risk for Laschet? Union chancellor candidate will probably do without the constituency fight for the federal election

CDU boss Laschet wants to succeed Merkel in the chancellery.

He does not necessarily need a seat in the Bundestag for this.

He is applying for it, but not as is usual in the Union.

Aachen / Berlin - Armin Laschet wants to go to Berlin.

Armin Laschet wants to become German chancellor.

But does Armin Laschet also want or come to the Bundestag?

This question sounds strange at first, but the speculations exist.

The background is the information that CDU boss Laschet will not run as a direct candidate for his party in a constituency in the upcoming federal election in autumn - but should only be on the NRW state list.

For a Union candidate for chancellor, this is an unusual step.

Union Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet: List position 1 but no direct mandate?

“We assume that Laschet will lead the state list,” said the Secretary General of the NRW CDU, Josef Hovenjürgen, to the German press agency on Thursday (May 20). On June 5, the list of candidates will be proposed to the state assembly. Laschet should appear there with his name in number 1. And in this context it was already said by Hovenjürgen: Laschet is not expected to run as a direct candidate in his home district association Aachen. The news portal

t-online

and the news magazine

Spiegel

reported shortly thereafter that it had been confirmed to them that CDU boss Laschet would not fight for a direct mandate in his hometown of Aachen.

That would put Laschet out of line in the Union.

And this would be completely harmless for his plan to leave North Rhine-Westphalia as Prime Minister after the federal election in 2021 and go to Berlin, either.

Merkel and Kohl vied for first votes - Laschet also represented Aachen in the Bundestag

The incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel has represented her constituency of Vorpommern-Rügen - Vorpommern-Greifswald I directly since 1990 - that is, since she sat in the Bundestag. Former Chancellor Helmut Kohl took office in his home constituency of Ludwigshafen / Frankenthal and won the direct mandate there twice. So far, the CDU / CSU have received a large number of first votes in federal elections, which is why it is part of the Union mentality to represent the citizens on site, to be a point of contact and to enjoy greater legitimacy from the electorate. Laschet is also familiar with this feeling. In 1994 he won the constituency in Aachen and entered the Bundestag.

CDU man Rudolf Henke currently represents the constituency of Aachen I. Perhaps the CDU chief does not want to dispute this position for him?

“Armin Laschet values ​​the work of the current member of the Bundestag and asked him if he would like to continue.

And he has signaled his readiness, ”said an Aachen politician to

t-online

.

+

Will Armin Laschet make it to such a coveted seat in the Bundestag after the federal election in 2021?

© Florian Gaertner / photothek / Imago

How high are fear and risk?

Constituency races in Aachen could be tight - but also no 100 percent guarantee on the list

Perhaps there is also a certain fear that Laschet will not win the direct mandate in the upcoming federal election? It was already tight for Henke in 2017: While he won with 33.7 percent of the first vote, Ursula Schmidt from the SPD was already hot on his heels with 32.5 percent. According to survey results by the opinion research institute Insa (as of May 17, 2021), the CDU is still ahead in the constituency concerned, but by a narrow margin, with a likely mandate gain of less than three percentage points. Election.de constituency forecasts (as of May 21, 2021) even see the Greens ahead in this constituency.

Even if Laschet takes his party's first place on the NRW list, there is a risk that he will not make it through the state list. Direct mandates won by CDU politicians in North Rhine-Westphalia are at the expense of the number of applicants who enter the Bundestag via the state list. It is a paradox, but Laschet would have to hope, so to speak, that his party does not win too many direct seats so that there are still seats open after the second share of the vote. To classify, even if a lot can change in this election: In 2017, the first four people on the NRW state list made it into the Bundestag. Laschet would have made it back then. But there have been counterexamples in history.

To be clear, however: Formally, a person does not have to sit in the Bundestag to become Chancellor.

It is unclear exactly what strategy Laschet is pursuing.

He has not yet commented on his plans for how he wants to run for the Bundestag.

Laschet's competitors are both fighting for a direct mandate in Potsdam

With regard to his chancellor's plans, polls currently look mixed up for the Union.

You're going head-to-head with the Greens.

Should Laschet become Chancellor, but not move into the Bundestag after the election, there would at least be the option of asking someone to give up his seat so that Laschet can take it.

But if Merkel's successor fails and the Union goes into opposition, that could be much more difficult.

Laschet's rivals for the chancellorship, Green candidate Annalena Baerbock and SPD politician Olaf Scholz, are fighting for a direct mandate in 2021 - even both in the same constituency in Potsdam. In the end, a maximum of one or one of the two can win. But Baerbock is also still in first place on the Brandenburg state list of Greens. Scholz does the same for her on the SPD list.

(cibo)