Frozen match.
With less than a year of the presidential election, no one seems able to disrupt the duel announced between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.
The President of the Republic and the President of the National Rally are always given largely qualified for the second round, and this whatever the right-wing candidate.
Read also: Rejection of Le Pen against rejection of Macron: a negative election
In a survey carried out for Le Figaro and LCI, the Ifop polling institute is testing five candidates: Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse, Laurent Wauquiez, Bruno Retailleau and Michel Barnier. If the president of Hauts-de-France records the highest score in the first round with 15%, the other four come far behind with 10%, 8%, 6% and 8% respectively. In each of these five cases, Marine Le Pen leads the first round with a short lead over Emmanuel Macron. The only candidate to see his place evolve according to the candidate of the right, Jean-Luc Mélenchon oscillates between 11% and 12%. It is in the case of a candidacy of Xavier Bertrand that he would arrive in fourth position while he settles in third place in the four other hypotheses.
Still on the left, Anne Hidalgo and Yannick Jadot would make a level playing field between 6% and 7% without ever succeeding in taking off.
Match frozen therefore, even in the second round where Emmanuel Macron would win over Marine Le Pen with 54% of the vote.
For the time being, the president of the RN does not seem able to climb to the Elysee.
Since the last presidential inquiry by Ifop, last April, Emmanuel Macron's score has remained stable.
As if the political landscape was frozen between a scattered left unable to come together and a right caught in a vice that did not succeed in bringing out a candidacy.
Faced with the President of the Republic, Xavier Bertrand would be beaten by a short head with 51% of the votes for the Head of State
Note however, in the event that Xavier Bertrand would qualify for the second round, he would only win against Marine Le Pen, and more clearly than Emmanuel Macron. The president of Hauts-de-France would be elected with a score of 60%. A result that has continued to improve since March. On the other hand, facing the President of the Republic, Xavier Bertrand would be beaten by a short head with 51% of the votes for the head of state. Enough to leave the 2022 match open, but on the condition of taking the first round step, which remains very high for the moment.
