Eduardo Paladini
05/25/2021 10:23 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 05/25/2021 10:23
When the arrival of the coronavirus was still a (unpleasant) novelty, consultant
Jorge Giacobbe
released the first electoral poll of the year. He asked a single, basic question, and with the logic of the crack: "What is your position regarding the
Frente de Todos
(ruling party) in the next legislative elections in 2021?" Since then, every month, sometimes fortnightly, he repeated the proposal. But in his last study he stood on the other side of polarization. And he inquired about
Together for Change
. The main opposition force, at least in this initial test,
fared better than the ruling party
.
The poll by
Giacobbe,
one of the analysts with the most presence in the media, included a survey of
2,500 cases
between May 14 and 16.
It starts with the image evaluation of seven national leaders.
And there, too,
the opponents
Patricia Bullrich (1st), Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (2nd) and María Eugenia Vidal (3rd)
finish above the ruling party
Alberto Fernández (4th), Cristina Kirchner (5th) and Axel Kicillof (6 °).
The exception is Mauricio Macri, who is 7th and last.
The two sides of the crack
When
Giacobbe
asks "what is your position regarding the next legislative elections in 2021?"
Regarding Together for Change,
the balance is only positive
for the alliance of the PRO, the UCR and the Civic Coalition.
v 1.5
Electoral poll
Based on a national survey of 2,500 cases.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Jorge Giacobbe & Asociados
Infographic:
Clarín
42% want him to "win" and 40.8% to "lose". Statistically, a technical tie. They complete 16.7% of "I don't care" and the rest, "ns / nc".
On the other hand, when the consultant repeats the question for the Frente de Todos, an
anti-Kirchnerist sentiment
clearly prevails
.
29.8% want the ruling party to "win" and 59.1% to "lose." In this case, they complete 10.4% of "I don't care" and the rest, "ns / nc".
v 1.5
Electoral poll 2
Based on a national survey of 2,500 cases.
Tap to explore the data
Source:
Jorge Giacobbe & Asociados
Infographic:
Clarín
Beyond the photo, what worries in the numbers of the Government is the evolution.
When that first parameter was taken,
almost a year ago, the figures were much more even
: 37.3% wanted him to "win" and 42.9% to "lose".
Hard cores and three types of undecided
From the crossing of data from the two graphs,
Giacobbe
draws a detailed scenario, with different groups of voters.
He defines them like this:
FRONT OF ALL Hard core = 28.2%
I want FdT to win + I want JxC to lose = 27%
I want FdT to win + I don't care = 0.9%
I want FdT to win + Ns / Nc = 0.3%
They fulfill one or two conditions that declare them safe voters of the Frente de Todos.
TOGETHER FOR CHANGE Hard core = 40.4%
I want JxC to win + I want FdT to lose = 39.5%
I want JxC to win + I don't care = 0.7%
I want JxC to win + Ns / Nc = 0.2%
They meet one or two conditions that declare them safe voters of Together for Change.
THIRD SECTOR Hard core = 10.8%
I want FdT to lose + I want JxC to lose = 10.8%
They fulfill two conditions that clearly separate them from the main fight.
It is the floor of the lagoon where all the third options go to fish.
UNDECIDED Anti Front of All = 8.9%
I want FdT to lose + I don't care = 8.7%
I want FdT to lose + Ns / Nc = 0.2%
They fulfill the condition of being anti-Kirchnerists, but they have not yet decided what will be the tool to punish the ruling party.
They can add to the polarization by voting Together for Change or they can escape to third options.
UNDECIDED Anti Together for Change = 2.9%
I want JxC to lose + I don't care = 2.5%
I want JxC to lose + Ns / Nc = 0.4%
They fulfill the condition of being anti-macristas, but they have not yet decided what will be the tool to punish Together for Change.
They can add to the polarization by voting for the Front of All or they can escape to third options.
Absolute UNDECIDED = 7.2%
I don't care + I don't care = 7.1%
I don't care + Ns / Nc (x2) = 0%
Ns / Nc + Ns / Nc = 0.,%
They do not give any indication that allows us to approach them to a camp.
In this public all spaces can influence.
CONFUSED = 1.6%
I want FdT to win + I want JxC to win = 1.6%
They fulfill two conditions that we can take as antagonistic (that both forces win).
We can think that they have made a mistake when answering, that they hide their true position, or that they intend to vote FdT and JxC by cutting the ballot and differentiating the national from the provincial or municipal.