Justin Trudeau, the flame that does not go out

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks at a press conference in Ottawa, Canada, on November 6, 2020.PATRICK DOYLE / Reuters

Justin Trudeau often repeats a phrase: "Nobody wants elections in times of pandemic, but liberals are prepared in case the opposition continues to mistrust this government." A minority government in Canada - like the one Trudeau formed in October 2019 - lasts an average of 18 months. And despite the covid-19, opinions in the media and political groups suggest that the polls could be set up in the autumn. A project to adapt the electoral process to the health situation is even being debated in Parliament. Trudeau, who has seen ups and downs in his years as prime minister, has a good chance of getting a new term.

In 2015, the Liberals formed a majority government after almost ten years under the shadow of conservative Stephen Harper.

Its leader, Justin Trudeau, convinced with dynamism, hope and charisma.

He legalized recreational cannabis, extended family benefits, and promoted multilateralism.

The economy was in good health (unemployment reached 5.6% in December 2018, the lowest since 1976).

Trudeau also faced - with a dose of patience - the harsh ways of Donald Trump (in the end, they renegotiated a new trade framework with Mexico).

The postcard was that of a photogenic politician walking forward and smiling.

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However, Trudeau's popularity declined for breaking some campaign promises (such as electoral reform) and taking action unpopular with progressives (nationalizing the TransMountain pipeline was one of them). "His image was damaged by several scandals, inside and outside the country," says Daniel Béland, director of the Institute for Canadian Studies at McGill University. Béland cites, among others, a trip to India full of nonsense, old photographs with his face made up of black (considered offensive) and the intention to influence the former Minister of Justice so that a Canadian company was not sanctioned.

In the 2019 campaign, the Liberals put more emphasis on the project than on the magnetism of its leader.

Thus came the time for a more sober style, which reduced the risks of betting everything on the image.

They maintained power, but lost the parliamentary majority and the popular vote.

Trudeau knew he was not armored against folly.

The postcard that best reflects this was given when, through tears, she apologized for having used that dark makeup 20 years ago.

The influence of the pandemic

The force of covid-19 began to be felt in Canada in the first months of 2020. The Trudeau government launched a muscular financial protection plan for families and companies that included -among other points- emergency benefits for freelancers, support to commercial rent and wage subsidies. "The federal government will do whatever it takes to help Canadians get through this crisis," said Chrystia Freeland, Finance Minister at the time.

Support for covid-19 was around 348,000 million Canadian dollars (288,000 dollars). Freeland presented the budget in April. The document included an economic recovery plan for 101,000 million, in addition to large social investments, and a federal debt of 1.2 trillion (51% of GDP); the deficit, 155,000 million. Freeland pointed out that low interest rates would make it possible to seek these resources.

Conservative deputies and some financial pens cataloged the budget as "electoralist." Pedro Antunes, chief economist of the Conference Board of Canada, comments: “In 2020, Canada slowed down the economy and distributed a lot of support, while in the United States aid was limited and it was decided to keep the economy more open. The economic impact was less in the United States, but greater for health ”. The Bank of Canada published that GDP in 2021 could grow between 4% and 6.5%, although there are still 300,000 jobs to return to pre-pandemic levels.

Journalist Paul Wells wrote in

Maclean’s

magazine

about the power Justin Trudeau had and used: “This absolute dominance of the political landscape was largely a product of the coronavirus catastrophe and the fiscal health that Trudeau inherited from his predecessors and that he hadn't wasted yet. There is more accident than strategy in it. But in 2020, this was Trudeau's country. The rest of us just lived in it. "

In November, 70% of those consulted in a survey by the consulting firm Léger approved of Trudeau's management of the pandemic.

47% of Canadians have already received at least one dose of the vaccine.

But in times of pandemic, Trudeau was immersed in a new scandal: he was accused of having attributed a contract to an organization close to him and his family.

The Ethics Commissioner acquitted the Liberal leader, who had previously annulled the agreement.

Images Trudeau and Biden during a protest against climate change held the day before the virtual climate summit in Washington on April 21, 2021KEVIN LAMARQUE / Reuters

The relationship with the United States

75% of Canada's exports go to the United States. After Hurricane Trump, today there is good chemistry between Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden, although the Democrat has an agenda and commitments of his own. In late January, Biden signed a decree to boost American manufacturing. “The bottom line is that it makes a more predictable relationship with the United States. Regarding the 'Buy American' ["Buy what was made in the US"), a part will go to the states and complicate the scenario for some Canadian companies. However, other stimuli will be aimed at consumers, something that may favor our exports ”, comments Antunes.

Another decision by Biden that Trudeau did not like was the revocation of permits for the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, designed to send crude from the Canadian province of Alberta to US refineries.

Biden announced then that between 50% and 52% of US emissions will be cut in 2030 from 2005 levels. Ottawa had calculated that it would do the same between 32% and 40%, although Trudeau said at the last climate summit, held in April virtually, which would seek to bring it to 45%.

Different voices doubt that it is an achievable goal.

"The main barrier to Canadian climate ambitions is our oil and gas production," said Catherine Abreu, director of Climate Action Network Canada.

A "dance partner" for the prime minister

Trudeau says he does not want elections in a pandemic, unless the opposition continues to mistrust his government. There are different readings about it. "It is a 'strong' minority government, since it only needs the support of one of the three opposition parties," says Béland. Political analyst Chantal Hebert considered in

The Toronto Star

that the minority government of the Liberals has been particularly productive, because it has always found a “dance partner” in the Conservative opposition for almost all its key initiatives, even in projects outside the the pandemic. "The search for a majority has much more to do with the convenience of the ruling party than with the imperative need to provide better governance to Canadians," he wrote.

Béland believes that the opposition parties have no interest in causing the fall of the government.

“It is not certain that there will be elections in a few months, but the improvement in the health situation and the acceleration of vaccination, combined with an advance in polls, could convince liberals to find a way to trigger elections and try to recover the Majority government ”, he maintains.

Two recent polls give the Liberal Party a six percentage point lead over the Conservative, bordering on the minimum number of seats they need for a parliamentary majority.

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