The figures are closely scrutinized in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, a region now marked by the withdrawal from the list of the presidential majority in favor of the outgoing President Les Républicains, Renaud Muselier.
On May 11, a first poll carried out for LCI and
Le Figaro
showed that the candidate of the National Rally, Thierry Mariani, came out of this streak strengthened by being the winner for the first time.
According to a new Elabe poll for BFMTV, the duel between these two figures could be tighter.
To read also: Régionales en Paca: Muselier fails to calm the storm on the right
Thierry Mariani is progressing.
In the first round, the flame party candidate, formerly LR member, was credited with 43% of the vote.
The head of the list benefits from a very strong mobilization in his camp, with the votes of 91% of the voters of Marine Le Pen and of 93% of the voters of Marion Maréchal, former candidate for the regional elections of 2015. Notable fact: it is The candidate also draws his votes from the voters of François Fillon (43%).
Figures that allow Thierry Mariani to enjoy a very clear lead over his competitor Renaud Muselier, credited with 33% of the voting intentions, with a mixed mobilization of the voters of François Fillon (51%), but a strong involvement of those of Emmanuel Macron (73%) as well as LREM supporters (92%).
A second round at 50-50
Far behind, the union list of the left led by Jean-Laurent Felizia and bringing together ecologists, rebels, communists and Génération.s, is only 12%.
The ecologist Jean-Marc Governatori is meanwhile at 6% of the vote, and the other tested lists are below 3%.
To read also: Renaud Muselier - Thierry Mariani: two enemy brothers in Paca
Things get complicated in the second round.
In the case of a triangular - opposing Thierry Mariani, Renaud Muselier and Jean-Laurent Felizia -, the flame party could win the ballot with 45% of the votes, against 37% for the outgoing LR president and 18% for the left .
On the other hand, the scenario of a duel, which would involve the removal from the list of the left - that is to say a scenario tested for the first time -, would place the two favorites in a perfect neck to neck, each with 50% of the votes. .
This hypothesis would also be marked by a strong abstention (41%) of the voters of Jean-Laurent Felizia.
Finally, the last lesson of this survey, safety (51%) emerges as one of the priorities of the inhabitants.
Faced with immigration (34%) and employment, economic development and training (31%).
To read also: Regional in Paca: excluded from the union on the left, LFI does not appear
Shortly after the publication of this new survey, the president of the flame party and presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, welcomed the results.
“
More than ever, there is hope!
», She rejoiced.