For graduate meteorologist Dominik Jung, the current weather is no drama.
After the historically frosty May, he reveals when it will be warmer again in Bavaria.
Munich - Extremely changeable and only very rarely really beautiful: A bad spring *, most people think.
The qualified meteorologist Dominik Jung arranges the weather * data of the previous year for us.
May was significantly more rainy than usual - and as cold as it had been in 30 years.
Mr. Jung: How rainy and cold was the spring compared to previous years?
Jung: From a
meteorological point of view, spring was - surprise - completely within the framework.
So far, since the beginning of March there has been 95 percent of the long-term mean value of rain in Munich at this point in time.
So it was neither too wet nor too dry.
The temperature in Munich has also been 7.7 degrees so far, which is also only 0.1 degrees cooler than a “normal” spring.
A spring can hardly be more average than spring 2021. But one has to say: The comparative values come from the years 1961 to 1990.
And have the numbers been different in the past few years?
Jung:
Yes.
It was significantly colder this year than in previous years.
We're talking about up to a degree of difference.
May was the coldest since 1991. And there was also a lot of precipitation * - namely an increase of 31 percent compared to previous years.
In April it was different: In the foothills of the Alps, there was a full drop of 55 percent compared to the rain target.
So on average the spring wasn't too wet.
The average figures clearly show how the subjective impression can be deceptive.
Weather in Bavaria: "Hardly anyone remembers the weather in May 1980"
How do you explain this wrong impression?
Jung:
There were only very rarely really summer temperatures and really nice days.
That is why most of them generally perceived the weather as “bad”.
Most people tend not to make a meteorological distinction according to the amount of rain, temperature mean and other criteria.
These are then subjective impressions.
Second, the comparative value comes into play: Almost everyone still remembers how last year was when there were more sunny spring days.
You might even remember the year before.
But hardly anyone remembers the weather in May 1980.
That is why it seems much more dramatic at the moment than it is considered meteorologically.
So why don't you compare the past years with each other, but fall back on the old values?
Jung:
In order to notice climatic changes, you have to look at a longer comparison frame.
The changes within 24 months are not very meaningful.
Keyword climate change: How does this spring fit into the development?
Jung:
You shouldn't derive a general trend or draw conclusions about climate change from these two or three months.
Three months are weather - thirty years are climate.
That there is a rainy May like this year is actually completely normal.
And the weather in Munich is not representative of the whole world.
Climate change can be clearly seen elsewhere at the moment when icebergs are melting *.
Things are going relatively normally here this year.
How will the weather develop in the coming weeks?
Jung:
In the next few days it will be nicer, slowly warmer, the temperatures even reach values of around 20 degrees.
There will be sunshine again and again in the coming weeks.
But for the first weekend in June it will be more changeable and cooler again.
So really consistently warm and sunny summer weather is not in sight at the moment.
At least a small beginning awaits us.
The interview was conducted by Dominik Stallein.
* Merkur.de / bayern is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
The beer gardens want to take advantage of this small beginning next weekend.
You are already literally overrun with requests for tables.
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