Lukashenko seeks Putin's support after international rejection of the detention of the Belarusian journalist

Increasingly isolated, Aleksandr Lukashenko reaches out to seek support from Vladimir Putin. As the West moves to impose more sanctions on the Belarusian regime as punishment for forcing the landing of an airliner flying over the small former Soviet republic to arrest a dissident journalist, the Kremlin seizes the opportunity to force its neighbor to accept more integration. . This Friday, Putin received the Belarusian authoritarian leader at his residence in Sochi, on the Black Sea, to address new avenues of economic cooperation and strengthen ties; a symbolic meeting that underpins Russia's support for its uncomfortable neighbor and that makes their common front visible to the West, whom both traditionally accuse of interference for supporting opponents and blame for spurring protests.

Putin has been Lukashenko's key support since the massive demonstrations for democracy and against electoral fraud last summer, which the authoritarian leader, in power since 1994, has repressed with an iron fist. The Russian president, at first, briefly supported the Belarusian, but when the demonstrations against Lukashenko intensified, Putin warned the EU and the United States, which condemned the attacks on human rights, not to interfere and signed a decisive state loan of 1.5 billion. dollars (about 1.3 billion euros) for Belarus and new agreements on supplies of oil and gas. Both countries agreed to carry out joint military exercises almost monthly for a year and create training centers for paratroopers and air defense troops.Putin even offered to provide Minsk with security forces from a joint team; Russia had already sent an outpost of information advisers and propagandists to work on the depleted Belarusian public television when independent media emerged in coverage of unprecedented protests.

More information

• Lukashenko toughens repression and deals another blow to Belarus' press freedom

• The parents of journalist Roman Protasevich ask for international support: "Help me free my son"

And since then, with Lukashenko in an increasingly vulnerable position, Russia and Belarus have agreed to new forms of financial and military cooperation, which only increases Moscow's influence over Minsk, its embattled little partner.

"Each new step towards the isolation of Lukashenko by the West inevitably increases its dependence on Putin," says Artyom Shraibman, founder of the political consultancy Sense Analytics, from Minsk, who nevertheless believes that the Belarusian will try to maintain his power and independence " until the end".

The

embrace

of Putin Lukashenko is also a substantial gesture before the summit between Russian and US President Joe Biden scheduled next month in Switzerland; a way of signaling its influence over Belarus, a geostrategic country alongside NATO's eastern flank. That is the geographical situation that Lukashenko had always exploited, trying to be a buffer between Russia and the West and play all the tricks to confront both powers and thus maintain his power and independence. But with the repression of opponents and the latest chapter in the arrest of dissident journalist Roman Protasevich, who can face 15 years in prison, and his girlfriend, a 23-year-old Russian whom Moscow makes few gestures to protect, the Belarusian seems to have burned that bridge.

The new European sanctions on the small Eastern European country (9.4 million inhabitants), which in addition to people from Lukashenko's circle and affecting the national airline and decisively blocking Belarusian communications could target the transactions Financial institutions and key industries - such as oil or potash, a source of foreign exchange - can turn the balance even further towards Moscow.

Lukashenko, his son Kolya and Putin at a monastery in Karelia in July 2019. Mikhail Klimentyev / AP

Russia and Belarus have been linked since 1999 with a union agreement, a syndicated model consisting of energy treaties, trade agreements and marking the elimination of immigration controls that also included the creation of joint legislative chambers or a common currency that, however , have not materialized. And Moscow, aware that Minsk is highly dependent on the subsidized Russian oil and gas that it subsequently markets and its dependence on Russia for more than 80% of its energy needs, has pushed to further tighten that union agreement - analysts argue that a fusion is never on the table — which Lukashenko had always resisted, wayward.

Minsk's stance strained ties between the two countries, which have a complex relationship that has not always been stable, says Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, a researcher specializing in Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia at the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI).

Lukashenko has shown that he is not a reliable ally for Putin, whom he has accused, when he was interested in playing that trick, of wanting to “absorb” Belarus and force integration at all costs.

Putin and Lukashenko have become, according to the Belarusian, from "brothers" to "partners" to "close friends."

Now, making a common front against the West, both leaders see each other for the third time since last summer, when the protests began in Belarus that Moscow so fears will replicate on its territory;

and more with legislative elections in the offing in the fall.

Other voices also believe that Russia has played its own role in the Ryanair plane crisis and the arrest of activist Roman Protasevich.

It is "hard to believe" that Lukashenko would have acted in this way "without any kind of coordination with Russia," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told Sky News on Friday.

The truth is that Belarus is an ally that is expensive for Moscow, says Tafuro, but for now it seems to compensate him.

“For Putin it is important that Belarus stay in his sphere of influence although he is not necessarily interested in Lukashenko.

However, now that the situation has become very polarized and that the visible opposition to the Belarusian, in exile, is closer to pro-European positions, Moscow does not have much choice ”, says the researcher.

Despite the sanctions and isolation, Putin will not have an easy time forcing Lukashenko's arm, says analyst Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of the political consultancy R. Politik. “The Belarusian is in a much more vulnerable situation, but I don't think he feels that way. Lukashenko sees himself as a guardian of the country and guarantor of the independence of Belarus and has always tried to prevent the influence of Russia in internal politics, ”says Stanovaya, who also highlights that in Russia not all senior officials see the idea. of further integration with good eyes now that Belarus has become a much more troublesome ally.