Santiago Fioriti
05/29/2021 11:10 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 05/29/2021 11:41 PM
Does Argentina really want an agreement with the International Monetary Fund? Does Alberto Fernández want it? And Cristina? Why is La Cámpora so jealous of the movements with the Fund and conditions each step? To what extent did the proclamation of May 25 by the most ultra artists and leaders of the space who asked to suspend debt payments counted on the vice president's nod? Does Martín Guzmán have a preliminary agreement with sensitive commitments that have not yet been made public and that will be kept in reserve until the elections pass? Is that why it is obliged to go ahead with a strong and silent fiscal adjustment, despite the resistance of the Christian wing? Why, if so, are there already consultants without a formal position who handle a draft with ideas to explain, if necessary,the breakdown of negotiations? Is it true that Alberto was upset by the show of artifice of that proclamation and that his reaction was to ask Guzmán to accelerate as much as possible? Is the fight for the presidential succession at stake behind the maneuver? Is that the main factor by which Axel Kicillof seeks to impose his own strategy to the detriment of Guzmán's? Or is it the same Cristina, who considers the minister a delegate of the IMF and her new enemy within the Government?who considers the minister a delegate of the IMF and his new enemy within the Government?who considers the minister a delegate of the IMF and his new enemy within the Government?
All these questions
have been fiercely propagated
in recent days in the Casa Rosada, in the Patria Institute, in the circles where the hard core camper moves and in the Buenos Aires Government. The concerns have an impact on the power system and on the functioning of the Frente de Todos.
They impact, disarticulate the story and challenge coexistence
. There are too many answers and interpretations when diving in that universe.
The conjectures are modified according to which figure in front is asked for a vision and when the talk is approached. Sometimes, when those conversations are no longer private and are moved to a television studio, the confusion is greater. The tones can vary according to the channel and, even, in front of the ideological palate of the interlocutor with whom the protagonists express themselves.
The President has oscillated between extremes of late
. Not even those who access the bubble of privacy have a single answer as to where the ship is heading.
In a long interview with Horacio Verbitsky, on March 28, Fernández stated that the debt was unpayable. Cristina is right, he argued. But just 72 hours ago, in an interview he gave to Pedro Rosemblat - nicknamed
the cadet
, a
militant
influencer
of Kirchnerism who visited him for an hour and ten minutes in Olivos and to whom he gave the tie he was wearing so that he could raffle between the militancy-, Alberto confided that he is promoting a quick agreement. He said that he talked about it during his tour of Europe with Kristalina Gueorguieva, the head of the Fund.
As internal battles rage and Alberto stands in front of the mirror, the engagement schedule advances. Tomorrow there will be maturities of $ 2.4 billion with the Paris Club. It has already been decided that there will be no immediate payments so as not to affect the Central Bank's reserves. The 60-day period will be used to continue trading before falling into default.
Between June and August, the country will have to face the payment of 692 million dollars of interest with the IMF. As if it were a macabre joke, between September and December, almost in tune with the transition that will go from the primary to the general elections, there will be the largest maturities of the year: 3,736 million of capital with the Fund and 100 million with bondholders. Total for the remainder of the year: $ 6.928 million.
Unhappy coincidence.
They scratch the entire net reserves of the Central Bank, estimated at just over 7 thousand.
It is true that the IMF will allocate 4,354 million dollars to Argentina in the coming months, as part of the agency's aid program to countries due to the pandemic. Guzmán wants to use them to pay those maturities. The Cámpora believes that
the minister overreacts
, that he wants to ingratiate himself with the Fund's technicians and that he cannot escape the dogmatic logic of his training.
Guzmán is stung by these allusions
. He feels neither orthodox nor fiscal. "For the rest he does not move a hair, but with that description he gets uncomfortable", assume his confidants.
The differences with the economist are crucial for La Cámpora. “All Martín has to do is resolve the debt issue and he takes care of that.
It's very good, but we have much more ahead of us
”, says an inescapable reference of the group. According to this logic, endorsed of course by Cristina, the resources that the Fund will allocate to the country
cannot and should not be used
to return them to the same coffers.
"It will be to put it in people's pockets and reactivate consumption, as we had promised in the campaign," say the campers. They want to allocate part of that money to at least half of the nine million people who received the Emergency Family Income last year. In La Cámpora they argue that when this benefit was eliminated, the country had a decrease in infections and deaths from coronavirus and there was another economic and vaccination horizon. Sure. Those were times when Alberto promised to vaccinate 10 million people in December (last year).
According to Máximo Kirchner's group, if the IFE does not return, a plan should be devised so that some 4 million people can somehow rebuild their income. It is a point of agreement with the adherents to the May 25 proclamation, who asked to suspend payments to the IMF and allocate those resources to "alleviate the crisis," as the Christian Oscar Parrilli had proposed at the beginning of the month.
The text of the 25 was signed by the deputy Fernanda Vallejos; the former judge of the Court, Raúl Zaffaroni; the secretary general of the CGT, Héctor Daer; the journalist Víctor Hugo Morales; the general secretary of Truckers, Pablo Moyano; the vice president of the UIA, Guillermo Moretti; Governors Gustavo Melella (Tierra del Fuego) and Gildo Insfrán (Formosa); the mayor Mario Secco (Ensenada) and - surprise? - the Minister of Government of Kicillof, María Teresa García.
It was striking that no member of La Cámpora joined.
"They did not sign because they learned that it is not the way,"
defined a man who frequents albertistas and cristinistas alike. The leaders of the group said they did not consult them. And they excused themselves with the fact that at the time the writing was being polished they were crossing messages about the health of Máximo, who had been hospitalized for renal colic. The text, however, did not bother them. "The Homeland is the Homeland and it plays its game," they slipped.
The concern about an outbreak in the suburbs, where the average vaccination rate of the population does not reach 30%, continues to be a ghost that haunts Cristina. It could lead to an electoral defeat, which she does not see today, although as the INDEC statistics appear, the concern escalates. The poverty and unemployment figures and the rise in inflation could be even more cruel if economic activity, as expected, is subject to recurring parates by the pandemic.
Meanwhile, Guzmán is making progress with spending cuts.
Try to hide them, but they are strong
. Retirements and universal child allowances, for example, grew below inflation in the first four months. Guzmán projected a deficit of 4.2% of GDP at the end of last year. If they leave it, thanks to the rise in soybeans - which today is at $ 560 per ton, almost double that when the Budget was voted - and income that they did not expect then - such as that of great fortunes or that of the rise in collection-, the goal could be widely exceeded.
Guzmán forgot about inflation.
He cannot with her and the defeat will be great this year.
He blames his allies.
It is worth saying: Cristina and La Cámpora.
Alberto tried to explain the raises, on Thursday night, in dialogue with
the cadet.
He said that when there are price increases, in Argentina everyone wants to run ahead.
What is a punk country: always look at the present and never the future.
And he said that, with inflation, Argentina is like a recovered alcoholic.
The metaphor caught our attention.
For the recovered, above all.
