Eduardo Paladini
05/30/2021 10:36 AM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 05/30/2021 10:36 AM
Not only is it the
mother of all the battles
for
this year's elections
, but a good part of what happens now
will mark the way
to the milestone that politicians reveal the most: 2023. With less than four months to go to the PASO, the
elections in the province of Buenos Aires are analyzed with few certainties
. It is hypothesis and testing time. In
Together for Change
, three names are being particularly evaluated:
María Eugenia Vidal
,
Diego Santilli
and
Jorge Macri
.
Clarín
advances this Sunday a study that measured them. In image and intention to vote.
Each one separately, but also in a possible internal
.
Who won?
In an open and relatively even scenario, the former governor prevails.
The survey that evaluated them is from CB Consultora Opinion Pública, a firm with origins in Córdoba that conducts surveys throughout the country.
In May, it released a Buenos Aires survey of
1,559 cases
, with a +/- 2.5% margin of error.
Clarín
already anticipated two cuts to this work.
On the one hand,
the numbers of three provincial K-candidates
: Sergio Berni, Santiago Cafiero and Daniel Arroyo.
On the other,
the figures of a dissident Peronist
, Florencio Randazzo, the former minister who threatens to return to play in the Province.
Vidal's numbers
The former governor starts from a statistical advantage in the district over any other leader of Together for Change who wants to be a candidate.
Due to her four years in office, she
is the best known of all
.
More than 97% of the Buenos Aires citizens surveyed by
CB
know who that.
With an alert: that can also work against you, depending on how those neighbors judge your administration.
And here's a hint of that.
The
balance of their assessment is negative
, with 46.9% of the image in favor and 50.4% against.
The Buenos Aires image of María Eugenia Vidal, according to the numbers of CB Consultora Opinion Pública.
This parity is also reflected in the potentiality of the vote.
The consultant asked: "If María Eugenia Vidal ran as a candidate for national deputy, would you vote for her?"
And he gave four answer options with the following result:
-
22.3% "would surely vote for it"
, which configures its
"electoral floor"
, the minimum that it is presumed that it would get.
-
23.8% "could vote for her"
, which raises their
"electoral ceiling" to 46.1%
(22.3% plus 23.8%).
Today would be the most I could get.
The Buenos Aires voting intention of María Eugenia Vidal, according to the numbers of CB Consultora Opinion Pública.
-
47.1% "would not vote for it"
, which further blocks its limit.
- Complete
6.8%
of
"don't know"
.
Of the seven leaders measured by
CB
in this provincial poll, it is the one that shows the highest voting potential (highest ceiling).
Santilli's numbers
The Buenos Aires deputy head of government is
the strongest letter that Horacio Rodríguez Larreta keeps
for the district.
For 2021 or 2023, after Vidal's confirmation that she will not be a candidate for governor again.
Santilli can no longer run for the City Executive, because he comes from two consecutive terms as number two. That is why he welcomes the jump. And how did the poll go?
The Buenos Aires image of Diego Santilli, according to the numbers of CB Consultora Opinion Pública.
Predictably, Santilli is less known (17.6%) than Vidal, but ends up with an image balance in favor.
It combines 45.1% positive and 37.3% negative.
Almost the same support as the former governor, but with considerably less rejection
.
The Buenos Aires voting intention of Diego Santilli, according to the numbers of CB Consultora Opinion Pública.
Regarding the potentiality of their vote, it starts from a clearly lower electoral floor (only
13.5% "would surely vote for it"
), but the
ceiling exceeds 40 points
by many Buenos Aires residents (27.9%) who say that " I could vote for it. "
Here also the rejection (
40.7% "would not vote"
) is lower than that of Vidal and 17.9% are undecided.
Jorge Macri's numbers
The mayor of Vicente López and cousin of the former president is another of those who does not have reelection in his district, in his case after three administrations in a row.
For this reason, he
returned to motorize his old desire to be governor
.
The Buenos Aires image of Jorge Macri, according to the numbers of CB Consultora Opinion Pública.
Jorge Macri has already said that he will be a candidate in 2023 and, with that objective, he wants to influence the assembly of 2021. One of the keys, obviously, will be to stop Santilli.
Does that imply that if the vice porteño shows up this year he will give him an intern?
It is not ruled out.
The mayor starts from acceptable image numbers
.
It is the least known (23.5%) and ends with a slightly negative differential: + 37.9% and -38.6%.
The Buenos Aires voting intention of Jorge Macri, according to the numbers of CB Consultora Opinion Pública.
Regarding its electoral potential for 2021, it
is the one that would start from the lowest
, always according to the CB numbers:
-
11.7% "would surely vote for it"
(electoral floor).
-
23.4% "could vote for it"
(the ceiling rises to 35.1%).
-
46.3% "would not vote for it
.
"
-
18.6% "don't know"
.
What would an intern among the three look like
The other table that evaluated them for the next elections, started from this proposal: "STEP Elections in PBA /
If these were the lists in the Juntos por el Cambio internal. Which of them would you vote for?
"
The former governor clearly won.
The vice porteño and the mayor were down and quite even.
-
Vidal
added
24%
of the total.
-
Santilli
took
15.3%
.
-
Jorge Macri
got
12.7%
.
They completed 23.8% of "would vote blank or contested", 12.9% of "I am still undecided" and 11.4% of "other".
