President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, during a press conference at the National Palace.Marco Ugarte / AP
Any sports announcer could say it: it is not winning, but staying in victory, the most complicated thing. For this reason, the overwhelming triumph of Andrés Manuel López Obrador y Morena, his party, in the 2018 federal elections, now represents a huge challenge for the president and his family, ahead of next week's elections. Because it is clear that they want to repeat a victory as comfortable as the one they obtained then (that of the famous thirty million votes) and endorse, thus, what they have interpreted as a clear popular mandate to "transform" the country according to their plans.
The president, who is anything but naive, knows this very well. That is why it has launched an offensive on multiple fronts for months. He has hit the National Electoral Institute every week, with astonishing constancy, to cement a story of alleged irregularities against him (and, if things turn out very badly, even fraud) that could justify a less forceful victory than what he and his supporters will wait. And for this reason, and despite the fact that the laws prevent him from doing so, López Obrador has not stopped intervening in the campaigns, attacking his adversaries and, in certain cases, attacking the institutions of the State to pressure them.
The president has not left a single card unplayed: for example, despite the fact that the over-60s have not yet been fully vaccinated and the massive process for those over 50 has just begun, the government hastened to open registration for people over 40 just before voting… Should we be surprised? After all, López Obrador has always behaved like the ringleader of a political movement and not like a head of state.
Polls indicate that, after the June 6 elections, the balance of powers could remain more or less the same as it was. In other words, Morena will retain the majority in the Chamber of Deputies, although with a direct drop in seats and a greater need for the support of its allies and satellites, but perhaps without achieving the great objective of obtaining a qualified majority. And as for the governorships at stake, the polls indicate that some of those that the president and his people most aspire to would get out of hand, as is the case of Nuevo León, which due to its economic and symbolic importance would represent a tremendous blow. of authority win.
That scenario is not the best for a president who aspires to lead a steamroller and whose followers claim that only small isolated minorities oppose them.
With such an ambitious speech in his mouth, a result that does not surpass the knockout of 2018 could be a disappointment.
Because it would mean that, far from consolidating himself as "the most popular president in the world," as he presumes so much every morning, the actual exercise of power has not increased support for his party, and his failures in health, economy and security, among others have taken their toll.
The risks are there.
See diminished, even slightly, their power in Deputies;
lose some of the juiciest governorships in dispute;
reap defeats in Mexico City, its traditional stronghold, and not conquer other capitals, such as Guadalajara or Monterrey ...
The president decided to turn these midterm elections into a referendum of his administration.
He has bet all his political capital to destroy.
If reality does not agree with him, in the end, and his power remains more or less where it was before the voting, how will he face the second part of his six-year term?
How long will it take for the internal deputies to run amok for their succession?
The fact is that López Obrador decided to risk everything in an election in which he is not even a candidate ...
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