Ignacio Zuleta
05/30/2021 7:28 PM
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 05/30/2021 7:28 PM
The organization against caudillismos
The moment tests the capacity of political organizations, which are dysfunctional by nature. Like families, sacred in religious prints or in the utopias of yesteryear, but sick from any couch. It happens to the two coalitions that confront today, where the individual advantage of the caciques does not coincide with the convenience of the whole.
What is good for Cristina is not good for Peronism.
That is why she could not be a candidate for president and they conformed her with a quiet part of the building in Congress, overlooking the suburbs.
What suits Macri to sustain a future
does not suit the whole.
He made radicals and Peronists explode in a dialectical incursion in Córdoba, whose intention is still scrutinized by the finest hermeneuts.
He went with friends and returned with adversaries, with whom he has a reconciliation pending.
These are moments when personalism poisons the whole, and the whole has to build an organization that goes beyond individualities.
If not, the weight of the caudillismos collapses the stage.
Squaring the circle
The rogue charm of politics is in its utopian nature. To do politics is to
overcome insurmountable contradictions of the human condition, such
as public life, that raw skin that needs from others, even if it hurts. It is the squaring of the circle, the swamp of error, the tomb of dreams, a chain of provisional hypotheses, demonstrable only occasionally, that forces us to walk along the ledge.
As necessary, it calls for superhuman efforts that each moment has fueled with various fuels.
There have been times of ideas, times of caudillista passion, exercises of rationality, abuses from the square to the palace, and from the palace to the square.
Superior stage of quality for some, it is for others a journey through tortuous paths, towards ends that justify the means to achieve them.
Summon the best and the worst.
To the detached, generous and passionate about defending the public interest, and also to the greedy and usurpers of what is foreign.
Discépolo, a pessimist, would say of politics that it is "stalemate of souls, / horrendous grave of my love."
Cadícamo, an optimist, would answer him that it is the "deaf graveyard of ships that when they die / However, they dream that they have to leave for the sea".
It is encouraging that even though everything always goes wrong, in the end the good guys always win.
An angelic draw that demands only patience, Job's patience - find out who is a journalist.
Nobody said it was going to be easy.
Horizontal coalitions on round tables, without headboard
The struggles are to be expected in horizontal coalitions, which coexist in round tables, without a header.
In 2015 the two coalitions had tables with headboards, with seats for the chiefs and their strategists.
It allowed the two to hold an election almost tied, in which they played in the best physical condition, with minimal differences in favor of the winner, Let's change.
The Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio are round tables, where everyone competes for leadership, with the only limit of becoming a factor of dissent. They know that the one who is divided loses. Everyone has a survival tactic. The challenge is to put together a collective strategy that works for everyone. Whoever imposes it will be, with just that, setting up a leadership platform. But that doesn't have to be noticed until further notice.
Peronism gave a lesson in 2019 by reuniting,
covering their noses, in order to go together to successful elections.
This is what the opposition must now force, so as not to remain in the format of
a cooperative of self-employed workers and provincial stamps.
The risk is that the individual protection game neglects the development of the whole, which is today to hold legislative positions in Congress and increase them, to continue regulating the political agenda from the minority. It was the merit that Cambiemos had when he governed, and in the years that go from the Alberto cycle they have maintained that front.
The Government cannot advance in the structural laws that it would like because the opposition maintains a line of action on the quorum and the necessary majorities.
Sustaining these positions and improving them is also a necessity for Peronism, which must share profits and costs with at least four sectors: Peronism in the interior, which governs most of the provinces with governors in a position to make good elections;
Olivos, with the pen at the limit of his powers;
Deputies, where Massa has his own agenda that looks to the future;
and the Senate, where Cristina pushes for the film produced in 2019 to be shot and whose premiere, still in streaming, is suspended until further notice.
The business of maintaining unity
Peronism has the advantage of a formal umbrella, which is to exercise power in the national order and in many provinces. The opposition has provincial chiefs without structural sponsorships, nor boxes that help in the conducive effectiveness, that can oil friendships. What is the need for Máximo to hasten to assume the presidency of the PJ of the province? None. He cautiously postpones that date, so as not to feed the adversaries who shelter in Olivos and in the Chamber of Deputies, and in a significant number of the district, who do not want to put their future in the hands of Christianity, as they did not want to do it already in 2019.
What is the business for Juntos para el Cambio for Patricia Bullrich to run the marks on Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, the only governor of the party that she presides over? The peronist gland - which is inactivated - will surely work for an exercise of prudence. If so, you have to imagine her on a list of candidates for national deputies in CABA, which Larreta can lead in the person of María Eugenia Vidal. This list does not need it beyond the symbolic, with which it can go third,
behind the male candidate who will put Elisa Carrió at number two - surely Juan Manuel López, today president of the Civic Coalition bloc.
In the seven or eight "entrables", Paula Olivetto must appear, the other lilista who must renew her mandate.
The other three entrances will put them between Larreta and the radicals.
Facundo Suárez Lastra, Carla Carrizo and Álvaro de Lamadrid deliver benches.
Carrizo is from the dominant lot of the UCR, Larreta's partner, who can claim a chair for, say, a Mariano Genovese, the party's attorney-in-fact.
There is one more chair to be auctioned by tender.
No one will cry at STEP
This exercise involves all the forces, which move distant from the STEP method.
If in the end the government manages to suspend them, as it would like, no one will mourn them.
Not the public, who massively reject the system in polls, as expensive and useless.
Neither do the leaders, who prefer a negotiation to any ballot.
That that the loser is going to support the one who won is a fantasy that reality has denied.
The model that terrifies everyone is the PASO of 2015, which pitted the Peronists of Julián Domínguez against those of Aníbal Fernández in Buenos Aires.
It opened so many wounds that it broke the provincial Peronism and made it lose the governorship, and drag, the national ones.
It was by the succession of Scioli, in addition, candidate for president.
No one can demonstrate that this STEP was not lethal for Peronism.
Mutatis mutandis, because it was not a STEP, the 2015 Larreta-Lousteau ballotage was the tightest that the PRO faced in the district.
They were objective partners - there was no macrista triumph in CABA since 2015 that did not have a strong radical component - but in that ballotage, Lousteau had the support of Peronism in the district, which did everything it could to make Larreta lose.
He won by three points.
With good reason, the first thing the head of government did was to close an alliance with the radicals in the only district of Argentina where there was no Cambiemos.
Weak agendas
The recomposition of forces occurs against the clock. On the surface, the Senate is due to pass
the STEP postponement bill
this week
- and, incidentally, give the vote to increase corporate taxes. The praetorian air that Cristina puts on the camera leads to these sessions being held without prior agreement on the agenda at Parliamentary Labor meetings. He prefers that they are done at will, without discussing the agenda. And without hiding preferences. They reminded him in the last session, in an aside that he wanted to be discreet, that on Thursday of this week the Chief of Staff was to give his report.
"For what you have to listen to ...", he was heard.
Sergio Massa also has a viscous agenda.
He must resume the session of 10 days ago, which is on pause in a regulatory limbo - it is like an intermission without being one - because the ruling party, around 4 in the morning, was left without a quorum.
There was an agreement between the blocks to postpone the approval of the Fiscal Consensus project.
Governors demand it because it allows them to increase local taxes that were suspended or postponed in previous Consensus.
The approval of the superpowers law is pending, which received changes in the Senate - compared to the original text - seeking an agreement with the opposition.
The ruling party this weekend believed they had a quorum and votes, but Massa did not define whether he would risk going to the session.
Guerrilla warfare for superpowers and biofuels
The opposition of Together for Change is
waging
, with this and other projects,
guerrilla warfare to divert votes from the initiative.
Legislators from the Constitutional Affairs commission, headed by Mario Negri, participated on Saturday in a virtual photo organized by the
Organized Parents
seal
.
It is a non-partisan initiative - until it is - that has gathered
support in favor of the opening of classrooms throughout the country
and does not stop growing against, for example, the superpowers of Olivos. That tide adds wills above and below the parties, but it reaches the ruling party.
The Government needs to improve its vote in moderate sectors, which it intends to capture with palliative actions, for example, closing classes - like the clouded pilots, in Olivos they confuse the sky with the sea. They have lost their vision of the horizon, which would explain to them that boys have to go to class for their parents to work. Another focus action carried out by the opposition is the brake on the approval by the Congress of the project to modify the biofuels regime. There is a project promoted by extractive Peronism that expresses the interests of the oil provinces, that modifies the current system of cutting gasoline with alcohols and that the agricultural sectors believe that it harms them.
The governors of Santa Fe and Córdoba lead, along with their legislators and businessmen, the rejection of the new regime and trust that they will be able to stop the approval of a project that already has a commission opinion, but - like so many others in the same situation - he lacks the votes to go to the precinct.
Pichetto to seek energy to a region with magic
With such a loose schedule, some take the opportunity to rehearse with clothes and lights.
The most important is
the appearance that Miguel Pichetto will record this Monday in Apóstoles, Misiones.
It will be his first proselytizing act since he left the PJ.
A local of the Activar party opens, which together with the UCR and the PRO, the Together for Change alliance, for the local elections next Sunday.
Activate is
the party of Pedro Puerta,
son of former President Ramón, who is a member of Republican Peronism, and is now making his campaign debut.
Misiones elects provincial legislators next Sunday and also councilors in eleven districts that involve 75% of the population.
It is a test for all local forces.
Christianity does not integrate the transversal Front that governs there: a mix of radicals and dissident Peronists who respond to Carlos Rovira.
Pichetto can take advantage of it to feed himself with energy in a land fertile in politics.
From Apóstoles there have emerged characters who were presidents, such as Puerta and Mario Losada.
It is also the land of the Nosiglia.
That city has given governors like Julio Humada and Rovira.
Some energy phenomenon will have occurred, because in a radius of less than 300 km are Yapeyú - the birthplace of San Martín; Encarnación - Alfredo Stroessner was born there; and Sao Borja - where Getulio Vargas and Joao Goulart were born. The locals root this seedbed in the tradition of the Jesuit missions, a world cultural beacon that brought forward the industrial revolution and confronted the Spanish empire.
In the small area, Pichetto will spend the night in the guest bedroom of Puerta's house, a bed in which a strip of presidents have slept: Carlos Menem, Eduardo Duhalde, Adolfo Rodríguez Saá, Néstor Kirchner, Cristina de Kirchner and Alberto Fernández.
There must be a reason.
Pichetto will be amazed at the rarity of this house, which has both roofless and roofless bathrooms, just like in Indonesia.
This architecture inspires, with wide ceilings and a wooded view, the exercise of the visitor's most personal rights.
Fine tuning for the charts
Pichetto will test his electoral effectiveness with the model of republican Peronism. Everyone sees him in some position on the lists of national deputies. A JxC raised the condition of leading the list and controlling the campaign strategy.
That list already has two names in circulation, Diego Santilli and Elisa Carrió.
On the waiting list are Maximiliano Abad, new president of the provincial UCR, and Emilio Monzó. They regulate engines while waiting for Peronism to show the game.
Daniel Scioli denies that he is a candidate or that anyone has interested him in this dispute.
He believes that he serves better as an ambassador, a position that allows him precedence over other officials. For example, being in 10 days with three presidents of Brazil (Fernando Henrique in São Paulo, José Sarney and Lula in Brasilia), or holding a meeting impossible to imagine here for an Argentine official, such as meeting with the president of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil: Luiz Fux, who is like the Brazilian Lorenzetti, who authorized the importation of prawns and shrimp from Argentina. It had been locked for eight years. A just war like few others. And here Alberto can't even walk down the courthouse.
Just For the record: whoever looks for Cristian Ritondo, president of the Pro deputies bench, will find him on the streets of Florida.
He has two conference commitments this week.
He will speak at the Interamerican Institute For Democracy on "The situation of democracy in Argentina" and "Security reforms, fight against mafias and drug trafficking in Latin America."
In addition, he will participate in a discussion at the America's Society Council of the Americas (AS / COA) on the current political situation in Argentina.
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