Elections in Peru: The Voice of the Poor

Editor's Note:

Roberto Izurieta is Director of Latin American Projects at George Washington University.

He has worked in political campaigns in several Latin American countries and Spain, and was an advisor to Presidents Alejandro Toledo, of Peru;

Vicente Fox, from Mexico, and Álvaro Colom, from Guatemala.

Izurieta is also a contributor to CNN en Español.

(CNN Spanish) -

I have spent many days in Lima analyzing the electoral political situation that will be essential for the future of the region.

Furthermore, as a professor of electoral campaigns, this election, much more so than that of Ecuador, will be a case study.

In Peru I have had the opportunity to talk and discuss my ideas with businessmen and friends.

I met Keiko Fujimori during the peace talks in Peru when he was communication advisor to the president of Ecuador in the late 1990s.

From there, I am joined by a strong friendship, which for all analysis is an asset, but always making the best effort to be impartial.

Without that, any analysis exercise is useless.

Every country has different regions with different electoral behaviors.

Bolivia is a classic case, the altiplano versus Santa Cruz.

Peru has the same very marked, Arequipa in the south has a very different political behavior from Lima and the north.

The other Andes and the southern Andes (Puno) has a great Aymara influence of behavior more similar to Bolivia of the highlands.

• OPINION |

  It is very likely that Peru will not commit suicide

For many, especially those who do not live in Peru and had the opportunity to see part of the presidential debate on Sunday, they are surprised to see that, despite Pedro Castillo's little preparation, most of the reliable polls that were published before of the publication ban on May 30, a virtual technical tie is projected.

Elections in many aspects reflect the identity of a nation, therefore, democracy is an exercise of representation.

Rather than reflecting electoral offers, elections are a process of emotional connection with voters.

Voters want and need to see themselves in their president.

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Here are two forces that are virtually tied that will be represented on this election day: one poor and marginalized and the other urban, but I hope both are hopeful that forward change can take place.

The ideological debate of the left or right.

The same fear of communism has been something for many years only resonates with a few formal minorities.

People do not vote against what they do not know.

Of course, many remember, know and have lived the fight against the Shining Path and the idea that this threat will return was re-lived to the surface in the grim attack in Vraem on the night of May 23.

Castillo has denied either being a communist or having joined the Shining Path.

The fear that Peru will become a country in crisis with Venezuela's poverty level also has little response in the poor and marginalized interior of Peru (again, especially in the south and the highlands, where Pedro Castillo has enormous popularity ).

The concept of freedom does not have the same force for those who sleep on an empty stomach.

The question that we will solve this Sunday is whether the majority of Peru has hope to change by creating more employment with investment.

If the informal (who are the vast majority of Peru) see themselves more as entrepreneurs who need to improve the market (not the stock market, but the one in the neighborhood square) so that there is more money on the street or that they give everything for lost.

In that case, it might be better to bet him to get anything out of this situation, or worse yet to collect a rematch.

Keiko Fujimori has had to face a lot of resistance these years.

Most of them originate in the shadows of a past that was very difficult for Peru and his father's government.

She has apologized many times in this election and has said that this reflection has been the result of her days in prison.

She has an accusation for alleged corruption that she has denied.

I value her maturity and strength, but I aspire for her to have the opportunity to be judged as the first female president of Peru, not because of the past (hers and others), but because of the actions she can take as a result of the opportunity that the Peruvian people give her. You can hit the ballot box to get the country out of this deep crisis by demonstrating your ability and preparation.

Keiko Fujimori