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Opinion: What to Expect from Kamala Harris's Visit to Mexico

2021-06-06T12:42:04.905Z


Former Foreign Minister Jorge G. Castañeda analyzes the time and schedule of Kamala Harris' visit to Mexico this June 7 and 8.


The referendum on AMLO and Morena 5:20

Editor's Note:

Jorge G. Castañeda is a CNN contributor.

He was Secretary of Foreign Relations of Mexico.

He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book is "America Through Foreign Eyes", published by Oxford University Press.

The opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author.

See more opinions at cnne.com/opinion

(CNN) -

There are several unknowns surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris' upcoming trip to Mexico and Guatemala on June 7-8.

Mainly they have to do with the larger of those two countries, but as the United States seeks to deepen its ties in Latin America, and, above all, as it hopes to curb the flow of migrants heading to the southern border of the United States, the answers will help. to determine whether the Joe Biden administration can effectively address the so-called "root causes" of that migration in Mexico and the Northern Triangle of Central America.

First, there is the question of timing, as Harris seems to have chosen an odd time to visit America's southern neighbor.

On Sunday, June 6, Mexico will hold the largest and most polarized elections in years.

At stake is the entire Chamber of Deputies and almost half of the country's governorships, including those of four border states.

Both President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO, as he is known) and a united opposition have turned these elections into a referendum on his controversial government.

He has constantly criticized the electoral authorities, who have disqualified a lot of candidates from his party;

Mexico's electoral authorities have already warned him that he has crossed lines by publicly defending his party before the vote.

By now, there are likely to be widespread complaints and demands for the results.

(Mexico's electoral process is even more complicated than that of the United States. It is convoluted, lengthy, and riddled with overregulation, and appeal mechanisms will likely drag on for days, if not weeks).

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Voter in Mexico says he will vote for the best of the bad 2:08

Given all this, it may not be the best time for Vice President Harris to visit, especially since virtually everyone will try to involve her in the many electoral controversies that are sure to arise.

An ominous sign of this was the cancellation of his scheduled visit to the Mexican Senate next Tuesday, announced Thursday night by Senator Ricardo Monreal, leader of the Morena party in the Senate.

The second question is about Harris's agenda.

As your staff has said, a number of topics will be discussed, from economic development to climate change, with the overall goal of deepening bilateral ties.

Harris also plans to meet with a number of stakeholders, such as community leaders, workers, and entrepreneurs.

  • Vice President Kamala Harris' team tries to distance her from the tense situation on the border with Mexico

This political itinerary seems like a good start.

But, given the priority that immigration has in America's relations with these two countries, especially at this time, we hope that Harris will be able to discuss the full range of issues during this trip.

Harris, along with President Joe Biden and many officials from the Department of State and the White House National Security Council, has rightly said that addressing the issue of migration in Mexico and Central America is not just about throwing money at governments. from a region with corruption problems and a weak rule of law.

It is encouraging that the Biden administration has signaled that it wants to collaborate with international organizations, nonprofits, community leaders, and others.

So several questions occur to me, mainly: Will Harris in Mexico really commit to these groups, as promised, some of whom are requesting meetings, or will he end up bypassing them to please the Mexican government?

To explain: President López Obrador has fought with civil society organizations, especially those dedicated to women's rights or the fight against corruption and impunity, insinuating that they are conservative or traitorous. It would be absurd for Harris to meet with these groups in Guatemala, for example, and not in Mexico. (Just as, for example, it would be unwise for the Biden government to cut funding for groups in Mexico while increasing those in Central America.)

But unfortunately, it seems that Washington needs Mexico's cooperation to keep Central Americans away from the US border - that is, to do America's dirty work.

Harris could face implicit pressure to avoid upsetting AMLO if he meets with nonprofits, given his public squabbles with that sector.

This leads us to migration.

Although it is not the only item on his agenda, it occupies a prominent place in US relations with the region, and one wonders to what extent Harris will cover the full range of political issues that are on the table during this visit.

Among those other issues will be, as always, drugs and security, but also issues that the Joe Biden administration has raised with other governments.

Among them, climate change and renewable energy, human rights and democracy, the rule of law, macroeconomic policy and the (mis) management of pandemics, and even relations with Russia and China, not to mention Venezuela. .

In fact, many of these issues are linked and cannot be easily divided.

But it is clear that immigration occupies much of the interest of the United States, given the flow of immigrants heading north and the internal controversies that the United States has lived in immigration matters in the last decade, even in the first year of the Biden's presidency.

One can understand why it could dominate Harris meetings.

America's own border policies are quite complicated to manage.

For example, halting the recent huge influx of unaccompanied Central American minors inevitably makes it more difficult for immigration agents to muster the manpower necessary to deter single Mexican men from trying to enter the U.S. without papers. .

Resources can easily run out.

That is why the Biden government, like the Trump administration that preceded it, has sought agreements with Mexico and the Central American countries to help stem the flow of those who leave.

For the US, immigration from Mexico is a complicated issue in its own right, one that is related to AMLO's internal policies. This is one of the reasons why the number of apprehensions of Mexican citizens has grown so much since 2019: Emigration has increased from some areas, as poverty gives some Mexicans more reasons to leave. AMLO's macroeconomic policies and the collapse of Mexico's economy in 2020 have attracted little attention from the United States, allowing him to mismanage that economy without hindrance. That, in turn, has spurred migration.

Immigration is also related to other border control and security issues for the United States. Dedicating troops and police to corner Honduran minors and their mothers takes resources away from other tasks, specifically the fight against drugs, which may explain the increase in fentanyl exports from Mexico, which in turn is responsible for the tragic increase of opioid overdose deaths in the United States: more than 90,000 in 2020.

Human rights, democracy and the rule of law are also fundamental challenges in the Northern Triangle (as Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are known) that must be addressed in order to solve the "root causes" of migration. And the same happens in Mexico. Human Rights Watch has warned of growing threats to human rights and democracy under López Obrador. His attempts to pressure the Supreme Court, the country's independent bodies, and the media are no different than what President Nayib Bukele executes in El Salvador.

And indeed, if Harris avoided mentioning corruption in Mexico while assigning López Obrador a partner role to combat it in Central America, it would be something of an oxymoron.

Mexico is not the country that comes to mind most quickly when we think of fighting corruption anywhere, not even in Central America.

Mexico improves in corruption perception index 1:29

The answers to these questions, whether Harris will meet with civil society groups and raise a broader set of issues, beyond immigration, during his stay in Mexico, should be "yes."

The timing of Vice President Harris's visit is unfortunate, but Harris should meet with many sectors in Mexico, primarily women's groups, migrant advocates, and anti-corruption activists, and not just López Obrador and his officials, as his office has indicated. what will he do.

Harris' agenda should include the full range of bilateral issues, if only to show that she and her boss take them seriously and are not willing to put them aside for the sake of cooperation on migration.

At least until Biden himself has time to sit down with López Obrador for a "moment of clarity" and a complete review of US policy toward Mexico.

Andrés Manuel López ObradorGuatemalaImmigrationKamala HarrisMexico

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2021-06-06

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