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The German Conservatives face the extreme right in the last electoral appointment before the generals

2021-06-06T02:53:00.754Z


The polls give Merkel's CDU only a slight advantage over Alternative for Germany in the East Saxony-Anhalt Land


Election posters of the CDU (above), with the candidate and current president Reiner Haseloff, and of Alternative for Germany, with Oliver Kirchner, in the capital of Saxony-Anhalt, Magdeburg.Markus Schreiber / AP

The elections that take place this Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt, a Land of just over two million inhabitants in eastern Germany, are shaping up to be the last litmus test for the conservatives before the general elections in September. The CDU plays the first place with the ultra-right formation Alternative for Germany (AfD), very strong in the east of the country. Some polls give the conservatives a three-point lead, but others put them practically tied with a party that has flagged the opposition to government restrictions to curb the coronavirus.

The result in Saxony-Anhalt will be read in a national key because there are barely three and a half months until the first general elections without Angela Merkel, who has led the course of the first European economy for the last 16 years.

His successor at the head of the conservatives, Armin Laschet, faces the last test before an election that will mark the future of the country.

Losing the first position in Saxony-Anhalt, a Land where the Conservatives have won all but one election since reunification in 1990, would be a terrible blow for the party and its leader, elected in January and confirmed as a candidate for the elections. elections after a public fight with another candidate that greatly weakened the formation.

Being behind AfD would be "a disaster" for Laschet,

Der Spiegel

said a few days ago.

.

More information

  • Laschet's Germany

  • The battle for Merkel's succession bleeds German conservatives

In national polls, the AfD has hovered around 10% in the past year despite its attempt to capitalize on the discouragement and exhaustion of the Germans at the restrictions. The training has not managed to get much profit from the errors in the management of the crisis, explains the political scientist Hajo Funke, professor emeritus of the Free University of Berlin and specialist in the extreme right: “In the East, however, AfD has remained stable at more than 20% of voting intention, especially in Saxony, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt, despite or due to their extreme right-wing racist and populist orientation ”. AfD connects with about a quarter of the population of the former East Germany thanks to a “toxic mix” of these elements with a context of social frustration that is still very present three decades after the unification,the expert points out.

If the far right were to overtake the conservatives on Sunday, "it would spark a dangerous debate in the CDU of Saxony-Anhalt and beyond about the determination to distance itself from the far-right party," says Funke. The tremors would be noticeable in Berlin. "This would probably have Laschet on edge until the general election and reduce his chances," he adds. AfD could not govern even if it were the most voted party because the rest of the formations maintain a strict sanitary cordon that prevents not only from forming a coalition with them, but even accepting their support or the mere appearance of cooperation. But there are voices within the CDU, especially in the East, calling for a rapprochement, and they would be legitimized if the AfD won the elections in the Land.Entering into those discussions three and a half months from a generals would greatly weaken Merkel's party, the expert says.

Christian Democrat Reiner Haseloff, 67, is running for a third term as minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt. It has been since 2011, first only in coalition with the Social Democrats, and since 2016 also with the Greens, in an alliance of three, called Kenya, because of the colors of the flag of this African country: the black of the CDU, the red of the SPD and the green of the ecologists. During the campaign he has assured that his intention is to reissue that pact despite the "ups and downs" that the coalition has experienced, on the verge of breaking up at least twice, one of them caused by the refusal of its partners to raise 86 cents the monthly fee paid by Germans to maintain German public broadcasting. Haseloff promises a center alliance as a bulwark against the AfD.There will be no collaboration "of any kind" with the extreme right because the Land can only be governed "with democratic parties," he said yesterday in an interview on the public channel ZDF.

The election of the Magdeburg-based regional parliament is also a dress rehearsal for the Greens, who could get between 8% and 11% of the vote in a region that has not traditionally voted green (they got 5.2% in 2016). His candidate, Annalena Baerbock, is the first green leader with a chance to become chancellor, but the momentum she showed in the polls after her appointment - when she beat Merkel's CDU several weeks in a row in voting intentions - has slightly deflated and there are polls that put her back one point behind the Conservatives. The latest polls give Haseloff between 27% and 30% of the vote, while the AfD could get between 23% and 26%. The third place would be disputed by the Social Democrats and the left-wing Die Linke party,with around 10% and 12% of the votes. In the last elections, Die Linke obtained 16.3%.

The far right within the CDU

The German conservatives are immersed in a debate about what to do with the so-called Werte Union, or Union of Values, an organization close to the extreme right that is not part of the structure of the CDU, but is very influential in the Chancellor's party. .

Last weekend its new leader, Max Otte, a member of the CDU but contrary to the centrist policies - left, in his opinion - of Angela Merkel was elected.

Otte has publicly said that in 2017 she voted for AfD.

The CDU is discussing whether it should make membership in the Werte Union incompatible with membership of the party, something that Armin Laschet does not support for now.

Source: elparis

All news articles on 2021-06-06

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