State election Saxony-Anhalt: The polling stations are closed and there are signs of an exciting showdown for government participation.
The CDU is the clear winner.
Which coalitions are possible?
Magdeburg - Saxony-Anhalt has voted.
On Sunday (June 6th) the 1.8 million eligible voters in the eighth largest German state cast their votes for a new state parliament *.
The incumbent Prime Minister Reiner Haseloff (CDU) * is appreciated locally - and is likely to keep his office.
After a surprisingly strong performance, the 67-year-old has all the trumps in hand in the upcoming exploratory talks.
State election in Saxony-Anhalt: CDU probably the strongest force, FDP before returning to the state parliament
According to the ZDF forecast of 10:30 p.m., the CDU comes to 36.8 percent despite weaker polls - a plus of a strong 7 percentage points. The AfD * seems to have missed its good result from 2016, when it immediately became the second strongest force, and reached 21.4 percent (-2.9). At this point in time, the left was in the third strongest position, but with 11.0 percent (-5.3) it was heading for its worst result in a state election in Saxony-Anhalt. According to the forecast, the SPD is also falling behind (-2.3) and possibly doing poorly historically.
The Greens * improve slightly by 0.7 percentage points to 5.9 percent, but could not achieve the high altitude from previous surveys, including the possible double-digit figure.
Meanwhile, the FDP is the winner of the election alongside the CDU.
After the Free Democrats failed to pass the five percent hurdle by 0.1 points in 2016, the current 6.4 percent now indicate a return to the Magdeburg state parliament.
That makes the corresponding coalition negotiations all the more interesting, as a look at possible alliances shows.
State election in Saxony-Anhalt: Black-red-green has ruled since 2016
A so-called Kenya coalition consisting of CDU, SPD and Greens currently governs Saxony-Anhalt. After it was no longer enough for a black-red alliance in 2016 due to significant losses by the SPD (-10.9 percent), Haseloff brought the Greens on board. Germany's first black-red-green coalition was born. However, it appeared to be less a model of conviction than a lack of alternatives. Because the CDU, SPD and Greens were not connected by anything more than the rejection of the AfD at the beginning. Apart from cooperation with the Left Party *, no other majorities were possible.
Like all parties in the state parliament, the CDU rejects cooperation with the AfD, as well as with the Left Party.
Even if a few CDU politicians in Saxony-Anhalt, such as Interior Minister Holger Stahlknecht, had repeatedly expressed their thoughts on rejecting this decision, Haseloff stuck to his clear no to the AfD during the election campaign.
For this he enjoys the support of a majority of his party.
State election in Saxony-Anhalt: next Kenya coalition?
Haseloff "always open"
Despite quarrels such as the differences in content, for example about the increase in the broadcasting fee, the state government pulled itself together over the course of the legislative period.
Haseloff seems to be satisfied with the collaboration, does not want to be “bad-mouthed” over the past five years and is “open at any time” to a continuation of black-red-green.
The majority of the population also gave the Kenya coalition a good report card, which is why a continuation of the alliance is not entirely unthinkable.
Due to the strong result of the CDU, Kenya is also mathematically possible.
State election in Saxony-Anhalt: "A German coalition would certainly be a good option"
With 6.4 percent, the FDP appears to be returning to the state parliament after two sobering state elections.
Because the FDP, after all longstanding government partner of the CDU at federal level, seems closer to the Christian Democrats in terms of content than the Greens, there is also speculation about a German coalition.
The CDU, SPD and FDP would then rule together in Saxony-Anhalt.
Haseloff is somewhat cautious about this, but not disapproving.
Markus Kurz, parliamentary managing director of the CDU state parliamentary group, spoke out
in favor of
the
Tagesspiegel
a few days before the election.
“A German coalition with CDU, SPD and FDP would certainly be a good option for Saxony-Anhalt.” According to the 10.30pm forecast, this alliance achieved an absolute majority with 48 out of 83 seats.
State elections in Saxony-Anhalt: after Federal Ko 2017 - Jamaica coalition conceivable?
A Jamaica coalition like the one currently in Schleswig-Holstein also seems theoretically conceivable.
In this alliance, in addition to the CDU, the Greens would continue to have government responsibility, the SPD would be replaced by the FDP.
Although this alliance failed after the previous federal election (FDP leader Lindner: “Better not to govern than to govern wrongly”), such a coalition is possible.
The SPD would slip out of the government and weaken before the upcoming federal election. The Social Democrats have repeatedly indicated that they want to be represented in the next government; But top candidate Katja Pähle * did not want to commit. The FDP around top candidate Lydia Hüskens * seems to be ready to form almost any coalition and has only ruled out cooperation with the AfD and the Left. If both the Jamaica and Germany coalitions are mathematically possible, Haseloff and the CDU will probably opt for the second and prefer the FDP to the Greens - but the SPD would also have to play along.
Jamaica is also possible with currently 45 seats (as of 10.30 p.m.).
That means: Haseloff could do without each of his three possible coalition partners if the other two play along.
And things could get even better for the CDU Prime Minister: Late on Sunday evening, a “grand coalition” made up of the CDU and SPD also seemed possible.
A two-party alliance would certainly be the most comfortable option.
However, this variant only had 42 seats at the time - the lowest possible number for an absolute majority.
Small changes in the election result could also pulverize the option.
State elections in Saxony-Anhalt: CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP - premiere coalition Zimbabwe?
In theory, a completely new alliance would also be possible - the so-called Zimbabwe coalition, consisting of the CDU, SPD, Greens and FDP. Such a coalition governs in Belgium under the name Vivaldi Coalition. However, due to the great differences between the parties, such an alliance is considered rather unlikely and would probably be seen as a further political compromise against the AfD. Because a three-way alliance is also possible anyway, a Zimbabwe coalition would come as a surprise.
By the way, on one of Reiner Haseloff's election posters it is written: “Now is not the time for political experiments” - the Zimbabwe coalition would certainly be such a thing.
It is already clear that the exploratory talks in Saxony-Anhalt will be extremely exciting.
Kenya, Germany, Jamaica, Zimbabwe - it will be colorful in the Magdeburg state parliament.
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