Clear advantage for Laurent Wauquiez.
A few weeks before the regional elections of June 20 and 27, the situation seems to freeze from one poll to another in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes.
According to the latest Ifop-Fiducial survey carried out for
Le Figaro
and LCI, the outgoing president (Les Républicains, LR) of the region is again given the lead in the first round, with 35% of the voting intentions, against a background of massive abstention (estimated at 62% of registrants).
To read also: Laurent Wauquiez: "Who will have the courage to stop the decadence?"
It would be a winner in all configurations: in the event of a triangular, in the event of a withdrawal from La République en Marche (47%), but also in the event of a quadrangular (37%), marking a difference of 17 to 11 points. with the list on the left depending on the situation.
From the first round, the ex-president of the Republicans is well ahead of his competitors, whether it is the ex-rebellious Andréa Kotarac (National Gathering, 22%), the deputy Walker Bruno Bonnell (13%) and the former socialist minister Najat Vallaud-Belkacem, who is on par with the Green Fabienne Grébert (11%).
Never below 25% of voting intentions according to age categories and professions,
"Laurent Wauquiez benefits from a catch-all electoral structure
,
"
notes the Director General of Ifop, Frédéric Dabi.
Left stall
Another reason for his hegemony, the former minister managed to guard against a flight of right-wing voters to the RN candidate, during a campaign focused on security, the second priority of the inhabitants of the region behind health.
To read also: Najat Vallaud-Belkacem: "On the evening of the first round, the left will be united"
Holding a firm line during his time at the head of LR, Laurent Wauquiez sees only 6% of the voters of François Fillon escape him in favor of Andréa Kotarac.
A feat, when his counterpart Renaud Muselier, who came closer to the presidential majority in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, sees one in three voters from Fillon rally Thierry Mariani in his region.
Result, of the three outgoing LR presidents with Elysian ambitions, Laurent Wauquiez is the one who has the strongest electoral potential in the first round in his region, ahead of Valérie Pécresse, in Île-de-France, and Xavier Bertrand, in the Hauts -of France.
Read also: Regional: return to politics upset for Najat Vallaud-Belkacem
Unlike the RN, which remains close to its low water level in 2015 (25.5% of the vote), the left is witnessing a dropout: it only reaches 30% of the voting intentions in the event of triangular (against 36.8% of voice in 2015).
“When it is not out, the left does not seem able to win,”
observes Frédéric Dabi.
As for the LREM list, it does not seem to threaten the outgoing president, despite the high score obtained by Emmanuel Macron in the region in the presidential election (24.5% of the votes in the first round). Cruel observation for the macronist Bruno Bonnell: 27% of LREM voters in 2017 referred to Laurent Wauquiez. Yet not stingy with criticism of the head of state.
